Here's an interesting Maine poll from SurveyUSA.com:
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/ME041020pres2q.pdfIn this poll, Kerry leads Bush by 6 points statewide (up from a 2-point lead in the last SurveyUSA poll), but by 9 points in the 2nd district (reversing a 9-point deficit in the last poll) and only 3 points in the 1st district (down from a 10-point lead in the last poll). The second district is the one Bush came closer to carrying in 2000, and is the one pundits seem to expect he has a better chance of carrying this year. So the results of this poll are a bit of a surprise. This poll didn't seem to include candidates other Bush and Kerry in the question, but did leave an "other" option open.
The statewide result of the poll was Kerry leading Bush 51% to 45%. In the first district, Kerry led Bush 49% to 46%. In the second district, Kerry led Bush 53% to 44%. Kerry polled best among those voters most likely to vote, although that bloc of voters was a far larger sample of the vote than the other bloc so that isn't saying a whole lot and may indicate that that bloc is inflated.
At the conservative web site AsMaineGoes, one poster commented that while he generally doesn't take much stock in polls, he found this polling organization particularly unreliable. Another poster agreed, and it was discussed how the same polling firm overestimated support for a school funding initative by 19 points shortly before the election. That was a primary election, however, and there weren't any top-ticket congressional primaries this year, and one poster pointed out that the low turnout in that election made it a very difficult one to poll.
Sincerely,
Kevin Lamoreau
