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That's why they are gonna lose their majority they take up bills that are meaningless.

I'm guessing a "friendly" regime in Ukraine from Putin's perspective would be Belarus 2.0:

"In my recent piece in Foreign Affairs, I argued that nobody in Moscow is looking for an exit strategy from the war; rather, people are prepared to fight as long as it takes. Many interpreted this as a thesis that Moscow will not negotiate with Ukraine or agree to a ceasefire. That is not what I was saying. Here are several points to make my understanding more nuanced:

There is no discussion among senior officials in the Kremlin about negotiating with Ukraine or what compromises could be reached with Kyiv or the West. Decision-making on this issue is monopolized by Putin, and many senior officials simply guess what he wants but do not dare to initiate anything. The common belief is that Russia is winning, advancing successfully, and has the upper hand in Ukraine. Hence, they see no point in talking to the West, let alone Ukraine.

Putin does not aim to storm Odessa, Kyiv, or even Kharkiv. First, he lacks the army for that. Second, he does not want to engage in large-scale battles. His strategy is to impose on Ukraine military pressure, diminish military infrastructure, and intimidate locals to coerce Kyiv into surrendering and accepting Russian demands. He will only take what he believes he can, given his limited military capacity and wait when Ukraine falls.

Yes, Putin wants to talk, but strictly on Russian terms. He is concerned that a pause might be used by the West and Ukraine to rearm. Because of this, he will be extremely cautious about the conditions of any talks

He will not talk to Zelensky, as he does not believe Zelensky can deliver what Russia wants from Ukraine. Moscow has been signalling for months that the West must remove Zelensky. However, if Zelensky were to lift the ban on talks with Russia and open a window for negotiations, Putin might seize this opportunity (as a showcase and temporarily)—not to start real talks, but to demonstrate his readiness for negotiations, expecting, as well, it to accelerate Zelensky’s departure. Putin might also agree to a tactical ceasefire if reassured that it would not be used to rearm Ukraine and if he sees Ukraine is desperate and ready to discuss Russian demands.

So, what are Russia’s demands? Putin’s flexibility will depend on the progress on three tracks, which are inter-dependable:

1. Washington’s position: If Putin has any hope that the US might consider an "ironclad" ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership and other guarantees of neutrality, his position on two other tracks might soften.
2. Kyiv’s readiness to consider political demands: Putin wants a "friendly" regime in Ukraine—one that would exclude the emergence of anti-Russian forces. I will not go into details here, but If he believes he can achieve this, he may be flexible on territorial matters. It is important to say that I do not believe this is ever possible, but in Putin’s vision, it is no problem if Odessa remains Ukrainian as long as Ukraine is “friendly.”
3. Territorial Matters: If there is no progress on the first two tracks, Putin will continue a creeping offensive for as long as needed. If he is more successful militarily and gain more territories, he will become more contemptuous about first and second tracks.

The point of my article in Foreign Affairs was that if there is no sign from the West that serious talks are possible (in Putin’s eyes and those of the Russian ruling elite there are no such signs), the only path is further escalation. No one is concerned about this unless it brings us to the brink of nuclear war—an eventuality that might split the elite (I do not urge to provoke the nuclear escalation). Until then, the political class will stick with Putin and support his military ambitions."

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1791534488641544356

     
WTF is Washington's positions, again? Russia is supposed to hope they concede to some intangible BS?  Sure we might consider not arming Ukraine or advancing their membership to NATO. Wink Wink. We should pause the conflict to further discuss these terms and disregards all the public suggestions that demonstrate our intent to manipulate you. We need to show our voters that were reasonable, but also that we can arm-wrestle you to the floor, so then we can say "We tried. Putin doesn't plan to stop his invasion of Europe, so we have to send more resources to Ukraine. They've escalated by dropping chemical weapons but ignore the videos of Ukrainians bragging about the chemicals weapons their manufacturing, and the ones where they drop those chemical weapons."  The reality is that Putin and Russian Elites were talking about negotiations a long time ago, but there is no longer any path to peace with Biden and Zelensky.  That ended when Russia realized that the Ukrainian Offensive gave them an open path to victory, and those fortification built in the South and East gave Putin the time to field a powerful army while Zelensky played into the Russian attrition strategy by sacrificing his best for nothing.     

The common belief is that Russia is winning the war cause evidence points towards growing Russian momentum whilst increasing their military superiority over Ukraine despite assistance from NATO countries.  Russia doesn't have to directly assault Kharkiv anymore, because Ukraine doesn't have enough men to defend the front.  They just have to walk around and surround it while their ample supply of drones, artillery shells, air bombardments, and missiles annihilate anything that tries to touch them.  And now Ukraine is losing functionality of their drones due to the Russian Electronic Warfare and Turtle Tanks. The UAF can't even fly a drone to track their movements.  That's a nightmare.  There's no negotiation ATM, because Ukraine is literally on the ropes.   

The polls are lying didn't they have Laxalt plus 5 per Trafalgar, users once again believe those silly NV polls, they are always gonna have an R biss

[No, it's a 270-268 map.]

No, it's a 270-268 map.

Emerson just polled NV on 4/25 and it will be updated in their next polls Trump 51/49 Trump will never win NV by 12


This is Biden EC strategy to get to 275 without ME 2 or NEB 2. As it was for Hillary, but FL is solid red.

Keep believing those NV polls TRAFALGAR had it Laxalt plus 5

North Carolina moment.

Ah, the doom and gloom. The only polls that matter are the exit polls on Election Day.

That being said, these numbers are atrocious for Biden. As a Gen Z voter myself, I am disenchanted with the state of the union right now. Still, I think that Biden has a fighting chance to recover in these 6 months if he plays his cards right. So far the 2020 Biden coalition is fractured, and previous elections have shown that polls consistently underestimate Trump. I think we will see Biden get a ton of soft support back after the conventions once the reality of the rematch sets in. A conviction of Trump will only complicate things for him further and should even things up by Election Day.

Biden needs to rethink his electoral strategy. Gains with White voters alone won’t save him, he needs to show he’s doing something on the economy and trying to make peace abroad. Going all in on WI/PA/MI and adding NC should be the strategy. Play defense in those states as well as the 2016 states. The others are lost.

Trump will never win NV by 12

I don't know. It's not Travis or any of those other counties. It's worth a look but I wouldn't rule out something strange.

This is a deeply concerning and saddening situation. I have family living in New Caledonia and above all I want them to be safe and secure.

As far as how we got to this point, there is plenty of blame to go around. Certainly the independentist position is becoming increasingly untenable after losing three referendums and with a growing share of residents being disenfranchised under the Noumea Accords. Still, at the end of the day the French state is in no position to just bowl over Kanaks' legitimate fears of being increasingly marginalized in their own lands, and there has to be a comprehensive solution to longstanding postcolonial dynamics. These issues aren't going to be solved by deploying the army or banning TikTok, and it's high time the incompetent blowhards in government take a page from Rocard and Jospin and actually take the effort to negotiate a compromise everyone can live with. This situation is too serious to think about it in slogans.

I think that’s sort of the thing though, that you can’t all the third referendum a legitimate democratic excercise. Macron and Guerini rushed it through to get it out of the way as quick as possible, without going through the necessary consultation with the interested parties. As a result of which the independentists boycotted it, feeing somewhat understandably that they were not being given a fair hearing and a result they do not feel that the Nouméa process is complete.

Of course updating the electoral register is a democratic necessity, and it was always supposed to happen post Nouméa. But if Macron had actually gone into this process without his entirely predictable sense of entitled ignorance and high minded contempt and seen Noumea through rather than pissing all over the process then we wouldn’t be here right now.

Oh for sure, the government made a huge blunder rushing the last referendum, in typical FBM fashion. But at the end of the day the boycott was the independentists' choice, and I think it was also a huge mistake. There was no reason not to fight it out, especially with how close 2020 had been. I hate to have a "both sides" commentary but the situation is nuanced and serious enough that I am willing to say both sides need to do better here.

As backward as Tennessee is, Alabama is even more so.  Nevertheless, VW unionized in Chattanooga, and the Mercedes vote was 45 percent yes.

At the very least, the threat to unionize caused Mercedes to increase salaries somewhat and to provide further bonuses.  So I would say the UAW and the union-friendlier NLRB made some positive impact for the workers.  And the opportunity to vote again will come back soon.

Ah, the doom and gloom. The only polls that matter are the exit polls on Election Day.

That being said, these numbers are atrocious for Biden. As a Gen Z voter myself, I am disenchanted with the state of the union right now. Still, I think that Biden has a fighting chance to recover in these 6 months if he plays his cards right. So far the 2020 Biden coalition is fractured, and previous elections have shown that polls consistently underestimate Trump. I think we will see Biden get a ton of soft support back after the conventions once the reality of the rematch sets in. A conviction of Trump will only complicate things for him further and should even things up by Election Day.

Biden needs to rethink his electoral strategy. Gains with White voters alone won’t save him, he needs to show he’s doing something on the economy and trying to make peace abroad. Going all in on WI/PA/MI and adding NC should be the strategy. Play defense in those states as well as the 2016 states. The others are lost.