US House Redistricting: Arkansas

[muon2]

Not much is probably going to happen in Arkansas, but I thought I'd throw together a 2-2 map of the state:




Since the state requires no county splits, the population numbers are a little high for AR-03 and a little low in AR-02 (by about 5,000 voters). AR-01 and AR-04 are pretty close to the target.

It looks like Logan has a small piece of AR-3.

[muon2]

Here's my first version of a remap based on whole counties. I only moved 13 counties and substantially improved on the population equality from the 2000 map. This version has an average deviation of 761 (0.10%) and a range of 2151 (0.30%).



CD 1 (cyan): 727,456
CD 2 (yellow): 729,395
CD 3 (forest): 729,607
CD 4 (pink): 729,460

Edit: The map was incorrectly painted in the OP, and is now correct. The variances were correct.

[muon2]

In 2001, they actually amended the existing redistricting statute, as opposed to simply striking everything and replacing (see Act 1840, 2001 session).  Only 4 counties were shifted:

Baxter from 3 to 1; and  Logan, Polk, and Scott from 3 to 4.

So they might opt for less equality, it there are fewer adjustments.

It is possible to move only 4 counties and have the population be within the same range as the current map. Move Pope, Johnson, and Newton from CD 3 to CD 4, and move Van Buren from CD 2 to CD 1. The resulting map has an average deviation of 0.35%, a range of 0.98%, and CD 2 has the maximum deviation of 0.70% over the ideal.

However, if someone doesn't like the map that moves a minimum of counties, they could sue. They would claim that it was practicible to move the 13 counties in my example and have a smaller deviation and range, yet still keep counties whole.

Edit: Here's the map and populations for this version.


CD 1 (cyan): 727,342
CD 2 (yellow): 734,082
CD 3 (forest): 726,940
CD 4 (pink): 727,554

[muon2]

As for Arkansas's map, any chance the legislature will make a map that will strengthen the Dems' chance at either AR-1 or AR-2?

The map I describe with the minimum county movement is probably better for the Dems. However, if it is the GOP has a strong challenge along the lines I suggest.

However, its hard to know what data the Dems should use to improve their chances. The federal and state races are strongly diverging, and the federal votes in the last decade don't look good. Their best play would be to redivide CD 1 and 2 and try to link Little Rock to the Mississippi.

In 2001, they actually amended the existing redistricting statute, as opposed to simply striking everything and replacing (see Act 1840, 2001 session).  Only 4 counties were shifted:

Baxter from 3 to 1; and  Logan, Polk, and Scott from 3 to 4.

So they might opt for less equality, it there are fewer adjustments.

It is possible to move only 4 counties and have the population be within the same range as the current map. Move Pope, Johnson, and Newton from CD 3 to CD 4, and move Van Buren from CD 2 to CD 1. The resulting map has an average deviation of 0.35%, a range of 0.98%, and CD 2 has the maximum deviation of 0.70% over the ideal.

However, if someone doesn't like the map that moves a minimum of counties, they could sue. They would claim that it was practicible to move the 13 counties in my example and have a smaller deviation and range, yet still keep counties whole.

[muon2]

As for Arkansas's map, any chance the legislature will make a map that will strengthen the Dems' chance at either AR-1 or AR-2?

The map I describe with the minimum county movement is probably better for the Dems. However, if it is the GOP has a strong challenge along the lines I suggest.

However, its hard to know what data the Dems should use to improve their chances. The federal and state races are strongly diverging, and the federal votes in the last decade don't look good. Their best play would be to redivide CD 1 and 2 and try to link Little Rock to the Mississippi.

Here's a map that does what I suggested. CD 2 (yellow) would have voted for Obama by about 3% over McCain. Needless to say, CD 1 becomes hard R. It also does increase the GOP lean of CD 4 by a couple of points, however.

As with other plans for AR, counties are kept intact. The average deviation is 1956 (0.27%) and the range is 4866 (0.67%).



CD 1 (cyan): 731,806
CD 2 (yellow): 730,066
CD 3 (forest): 726,940
CD 4 (pink): 727,106

[muon2]

Why do I have a different state population total to you, Muon? I'm using new estimates on 2000 block groups.

Muon is using the updated 2010 Census Data, you can find the population by county for some states including Arkansas on the Census Bureau website.  The 2010 Census Data update is not yet available on Dave's site (though some other states are).

That's right. I loaded the county data from Census 2010 into spreadsheet and used that to build districts. My plans are equivalent to real plans that AR may be considering.

[muon2]

The crappy map passed the Senate with more support from Republicans than from Democrats.

Well at least this map only splits two counties. I'd have liked them to continue to split none, but that doesn't seem to be popular on either side of the aisle.