any of you guys interested in re-creating old districts to see what the

[Miles]

Here's NC in the 1990's:

[Miles]

Here's NC from 1940-1960:



Of course, I'be analyzing it in terms of today's politics.

CD1
50.5/48.8 Obama
53.2/46.8 Democratic
Deviation: -357,547
Butterfield wouldn't live here, which I guess is a good thing, because this seat would be too swingy for him anyway. Given, the region's Democratic history, this would be Lean D. Walter JOnes would actually barely live in this district, but more of his current district is in the 3rd.

CD2
58.9/40.7 Obama
62.5/37.5 Democratic
Deviation: -456,937
Talk about slow population growth! This is by far the least populated district at only 338k people; the next smallest is the 1st, which has almost exactly 100,000 more residents (437k). In any case, this district should be more friendly to Butterfield and he'd actually live here. In terms of registered voters, blacks and white each have exactly 46.6%. Overwhelming Democratic at the state level and almost 60% Obama = Safe D.

CD3
57.7/41.6 McCain
55.1/44.9 Republican
Deviation: -126,805
This where Jones would run, despite living barely outside of the district. Perdue carried all the counties here except for Carteret and Pender. Safe R with Jones, Lean R if open.

CD4
51.7/47.3 Obama
50.1/49.9 Democratic
Deviation: 682,285
No doubt, this district has experienced the most growth. As I expected, very swingy, especially at the state level. The Democratic lean of Wake, Chatham and Vance are almost cancelled out by heavily GOP Randolph and Johnston. This would be a good seat for Bob Etheridge. I'm guessing of the current delegation, Brad Miller would run here; he should win as long as he controls the bleeding in Randoplh and Johnston. The trend would favor Democrats. Slight D rating overall.

CD5
50.3/48.7 McCain
51.3/48.7 Republican
Deviation: -106,138
From a numbers perspective, this is almost a mirror image of the 4th; swingy, but slightly GOP. Every county is trending GOP except for Forsyth and Person. I don't think any of the current Democats or Republicans would want this seat. Coble would be the best guess, but this district would be totally new for him and at 80, I doubt he'd want to seriously campaign in a competitive seat. Foxx would be too conservative/controversial to win here. Still, Slight R.

CD6
63.4/35.8 Obama
61.0/39.0 Democratic
Deviation: 246,301
David Price would probably get this fast-growing, strongly Democratic seat. Republican Alamance is easily outweighed by deeply blue Durham, Orange and Guilford. Safe D.

CD7
50.7/48.5 Obama
53.2/46.8 Democratic
Deviation: 177,039
Putting all of Cumberland county here gives McIntyre an Obama district. He might even have a more liberal challenge, but I don't see him losing here. Safe for McIntyre, Lean/Likely D if open.

CD8
60.3/38.7 McCain
59.8/40.2 Republican
Deviation: 49,139
This would be even worse for Kissell than the just-passed Republican map. I really don't see how he, or any Democrat, could carry this seat. His best option would probably be to carpetbag over to the 10th, since he already represents a chunk of Mecklenburg county and the 10th would be ideologically similar to his current 8th.
Even though Robin Hayes lives one county over in Stanly, this would be a great chance for him to make a comeback.
The shape of this district kinda baffles me. Surely, it can exchange its heavily GOP northern counties(Wilkes, Yadkin, Davie) for nearer ones (like Stanly and Cabarrus) and the overall partisanship of the district wouldn't change, though I'm not sure how that would effect the deviation; still, since every district is made of of whole counties, I expect the margin for population deviation would be relatively high.
In any case, Safe R

CD9
60.7/38.1 McCain
61.2/38.8 Republican
Deviation: -48,421
Basically a string of counties running from the piedmont to the VA border. This would be the best district for Foxx and, numerically, its very close to her current 5th. Safe R.

CD10
54.3/44.8 Obama
50.6/49.4 Democratic
Deviation: 481,915
Quite odd in that Mecklenburg has virtually nothing in common with the other counties. At 63% white, I doubt Watt could win here and he could have been too liberal to win here in 2010.Conversely, Myrick would be too conservative to win here.  As I said, Kissell's best move would be to carpetbag here since he already has area in Charlotte. Probably Lean D in most years.

CD11
60.8/38.3 McCain
58.7/41.3 Republican
Deviation: -318,562
We could have an interesting primary here between Myrick and McHenry. While McHenry has more area here in his distict, Myrick would have a base in Gastonia and she had Cleveland county in the 1990s. In any case, the winner gets a Safe R+15 district.

CD12
51.0/47.7 McCain
51.8/48.2 Republican
Deviation: -222, 374
A pretty logical district nestled in the southwestern corner of the state. 'Very safe for Shuler.

Overall, a pretty good map for Democrats; it would pretty much be 6-4-2.
In a normal year:
Democrats:1, 2,6,7,10, 12
Republicans: 3,8,9, 11
Tossups: 5,6

[Miles]

Here's 1960. I'll work on 1948 later.

(colors are based on margins of victory)






All the "swingy" districts broke for Nixon but Kennedy was able to rack up overwhelming margins in the eastern districts to carry the state. 4 of Nixon's 7 districts were within 5 points; by contrast Kennedy's lowest margin was 15 points (in the 4th district).

[Miles]

Here's 1948:

(map is just percentages, not margins of victory)

[Miles]

Anyone know a website where old maps are available?

No, unfortunately not; there's no "holy grail" of such maps. You kinda have to Google them on a state-by-state basis and see what you can find.

Still, Senator Fuzzleton has done a pretty great job of compiling maps from past elections by Congressional District here on the forum.

Right now, we're helping him find Congressional maps from the 1950's and 1960's.

[Miles]

Well, it was what I expected.


I was curious has to how many districts Dewey had won, if any, and as for Nixon whether he won all the western seats or not.

Yep, most of Nixon's districts were very close, but he did sweep the western part of the state.