Still early, but I think this may be some form of a redux from this year's Republican primary in Illinois that could go either way in September.
However, Nixon already got the endorsement of the Working Families Party. So if she loses the Dem primary, is there a chance she takes votes away from Cuomo in the general election to make it closer? Not that I think one of the low-profile Republicans currently running have a shot, but it wouldn't be nice for Cuomo.
If Nixon continues running on the WFP line, the Republican would be more likely to finish third than first.
Given Nixon's meager primary support, that seems unlikely.
Molinaro is likely locked into second, and the 10-15% Nixon could take away from Cuomo in the general likely won't be enough to tilt the balance in a 30-point race.