MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Mr.Phips]

Today's recount results:

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman   195708
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken   180950
 
Recounted Data   Totals   Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)   195638   43.25
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted)   180923   39.99
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted)   75585   16.71
RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN   106   0.02
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN   115   0.03

Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 15.49 %

Recount (so far)
Coleman: - 70
Franken: - 27

Net Result: Coleman - 43 votes

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

This gives Coleman a lead of 181. 

[Lunar]

The losers in important recounts inevitably claim the other side cheated.  Guaranteed.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The losers in important recounts inevitably claim the other side cheated.  Guaranteed.

All this happened before the recount started, when Franken saw a surge in votes after election day out of 4 specific counties.

[Lunar]

The losers in important recounts inevitably claim the other side cheated.  Guaranteed.

All this happened before the recount started, when Franken saw a surge in votes after election day out of 4 specific counties.

I didn't say that the claims are always illegitimate, just that they are guaranteed.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI, for those keeping score:  The MN SOS website says Coleman -47 votes, with 23.17% of precincts and 15.49% of votes.  The Star-Tribune says Coleman -34 votes, with 25% of precincts and 17% of votes.  And my counting of the Strib says Coleman -41 votes.  Still haven't counted the SOS yet...

Waiting for these numbers to coalesce around one result...

[Lunar]

Wait, Sam, if there have been significantly more precincts than votes, does that mean we've probably not hit up the pro-Franken urban centers yet?

[tokar]

You can see 4 challenged ballots here (click "View full slideshow" on the right)

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/11/19/recountbegins/

some people are really stupid...
1 shows a guy who didnt even mark in the designated area
1 shows a guy who filled in Franken at first, but then pointed an arrow leading from the Franken circle to the Coleman circle
1 shows a guy who marked an X between the circles for Franken and Aldrich

The last is probably from some poll worker who mishandled the ballot and left his/her fingerprint on the ballot.

[MarkWarner08]

Just FYI, for those keeping score:  The MN SOS website says Coleman -47 votes, with 23.17% of precincts and 15.49% of votes.  The Star-Tribune says Coleman -34 votes, with 25% of precincts and 17% of votes.  And my counting of the Strib says Coleman -41 votes.  Still haven't counted the SOS yet...

Waiting for these numbers to coalesce around one result...

Isn't Coleman -43 on the MN SOS site? He lost 70 votes, while Franken lost 27 votes.

[tokar]

Just FYI, for those keeping score:  The MN SOS website says Coleman -47 votes, with 23.17% of precincts and 15.49% of votes.  The Star-Tribune says Coleman -34 votes, with 25% of precincts and 17% of votes.  And my counting of the Strib says Coleman -41 votes.  Still haven't counted the SOS yet...

Waiting for these numbers to coalesce around one result...

lol, i had some page open which said "Coleman's lead shrinks by 15%", and it must be on auto-refresh because it now says 20%.

[MarkWarner08]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?

[tokar]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?

If you analyze, by weight, the number of pixels which are above the line versus the amount below the line you will see that there are more above than below.

[MarkWarner08]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?
[/quote

If you analyze, by weight, the number of pixels which are above the line versus the amount below the line you will see that there are more above than below.

Sure, but the line is clearly through the Libertarian's oval. I think that signifies a vote for the Libertarian.

[Ronnie]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?

If you analyze, by weight, the number of pixels which are above the line versus the amount below the line you will see that there are more above than below.

Ok, here's the Franken campaign's argument:

"We have calculated that there are 3 more pixels above the line than below the line, even though the ink was not even near our bubble.  Therefore, the vote should count for us!"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This is ridiculous. I can't believe Al Franken is going to be in the Senate. We've gone mad.

[The Mikado]

Coleman's campaign is challenging this vote, which was counted for Franken. For the first time in memory, I've found common ground with Norm Coleman. How was this vote possibly cast for Franken?

It's voting line 3 3/4.  Only the wizards can see the candidate's name.

[Sam Spade]

Wait, Sam, if there have been significantly more precincts than votes, does that mean we've probably not hit up the pro-Franken urban centers yet?

Definitely in Hennepin - the results so far are from a few carriage precincts towards the western part of the county which should go GOP.

Not so in Ramsey.  The results so far skew towards Franken and look urban to me.

St. Louis looks like mainly rural precincts.  There is a slight Franken skew however (very very slight)

Not going to speak as much as Dakota, Washington and Anoka as I haven't analyzed them.

The results will skew rural right now, then urban.  The anti-BRTD Minneapolis suburbs get counted last.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The last is probably from some poll worker who mishandled the ballot and left his/her fingerprint on the ballot.

Very unlikely. How ballots are handled is you fill out your ballot, and then carry it to the ballot machine in either a folder or some sort of metal carrier (basically designed to protect the privacy of your ballot. You then slide it into the machine. If a poll worker handled the ballot, it would have to be after voting and I'm sure the way the machines are set up to remove the ballots for a recount is designed to avoid this sort of thing.

[MarkWarner08]

I can foresee two hilarious (and heartbreaking, depending on which side you're on) scenarios unfolding. First, Franken takes a narrow lead after all the D strongholds come in, but he loses his lead after the rural areas are counted. Second, Coleman survives the recount, but loses after some previously rejected absentee ballots are counted.

[Sam Spade]

I can foresee two hilarious (and heartbreaking, depending on which side you're on) scenarios unfolding. First, Franken takes a narrow lead after all the D strongholds come in, but he loses his lead after the rural areas are counted. Second, Coleman survives the recount, but loses after some previously rejected absentee ballots are counted.

Quite possible.  I should note, however, that Franken is only challenging rejected absentees in Ramsey.  If he wins, I suspect Coleman will challenge rejected absentees in his strong counties and then we get pandamonium again

[Sam Spade]

The Strib now has an article up that says it will be Coleman +174 (-41 for the day) through 18% of votes.  Coleman has challenged 146.  Franken has challenged 123.

[Edu]

This is ridiculous. I can't believe Al Franken is going to be in the Senate. We've gone mad.

Lol, mate, you've been saying stuff like this all over the thread, at least wait till the end of the recount to see if Franken actually wins, before complaining.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW I assume when Sam says "anti-BRTD suburbs" he means places like Wright and Sherburne and not Washington and Dakota right? Though granted the former weren't THAT much stronger for Coleman than the latter.

[Sam Spade]

BTW I assume when Sam says "anti-BRTD suburbs" he means places like Wright and Sherburne and not Washington and Dakota right? Though granted the former weren't THAT much stronger for Coleman than the latter.

Yes.  I was referring more to %-wise, as opposed to overall numbers.

Although it doesn't apply to the former list that much, Scott also doesn't start counting until December 3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW I assume when Sam says "anti-BRTD suburbs" he means places like Wright and Sherburne and not Washington and Dakota right? Though granted the former weren't THAT much stronger for Coleman than the latter.

Yes.  I was referring more to %-wise, as opposed to overall numbers.

Even percentage-wise there's only about a five-point difference. Those counties are much stronger for Republicans in blowout DFL elections (like how they voted for Mark Kennedy) and presidential than close elections where the Republican runs well in the inner-middle suburbs.

Although it doesn't apply to the former list that much, Scott also doesn't start counting until December 3

Actually I put Scott in that category as well. After all it gave Coleman over 50%.

[Torie]

How can anyone know the partisan biases of those who can't mark their ballots properly?  One can assume they match their region, are more Dem, are old, or whatever. Who knows? I don't trust much projections here. I suspect given the ballot design, it is mostly old folks.