Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

I predict that it will be McAuliffe versus McDonnell with the latter being the winner.

McAuliffe won't win the primary.  He has no base, and too many people dislike him.

I disagree, I think he's favored.

His base is NOVA, lots of connections and this:

[Lunar]

I predict that it will be McAuliffe versus McDonnell with the latter being the winner.

McAuliffe won't win the primary.  He has no base, and too many people dislike him.

...His base is NOVA...

I think he and Moran will split the NOVA vote; wherever McAuliffe does well, Moran will do well too.  Deeds, on the other hand, is in complete control of the southern part of Virginia, with the other two not even close.

the second part is important

I predict that it will be McAuliffe versus McDonnell with the latter being the winner.

McAuliffe won't win the primary.  He has no base, and too many people dislike him.

I disagree, I think he's favored.

His base is NOVA, lots of connections and this:

The ability to raise ridiculous amounts of money means a LOT in the primary.

[Lunar]

VIRGINIA HERE I COME

TERRY TRASHES MCDONNELL IN INITIAL CAMPAIGN VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGoEDCs4-RE&eurl


lunar's not sure what this "Republican vs. Democratic jobs" divide he's talking about defeating

[Lunar]

VIRGINIA HERE I COME

TERRY TRASHES MCDONNELL IN INITIAL CAMPAIGN VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGoEDCs4-RE&eurl


lunar's not sure what this "Republican vs. Democratic jobs" divide he's talking about defeating

important to note that he's running as the successful pro-business businessman and not a political insider, let alone a clinton whore

[Lunar]

I still think Terry is going to win the Democratic nom.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0109/McAuliffes_Warnerlike_message.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lunar]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/07/AR2009010702452.html?hpid=moreheadlines

Someone accused Terry to his face of intentionally dropping his G's on his verbs once his campaign started

[Lunar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/15/mcauliffe-winning-over-vi_n_158130.html

In his efforts to ingratiate himself among Virginia voters, Terry McAuliffe is finding a positive reception among a somewhat unlikely constituency: the state's progressive netroots.

Days after officially launching his campaign to become governor of the commonwealth, McAuliffe has made noticeable strides in drawing local bloggers to his cause. His efforts have helped endear his candidacy to some of the more passionate and naturally skeptical primary voters. On a broader level, however, they have helped scrub away the critique that the former DNC chair was a carpetbagger whose political ambitions were built on a well-oiled fundraising apparatus.

"[T]here's more to this guy than meets the eye," Chris Graham of the progressive August Free Press wrote last week, "because this guy clearly knows what he's talking about, and I'm saying that as someone whose job for the past 14 years has been knowing Virginia politics inside and out."

"Earlier this evening, I attended a town hall meeting with Terry McAuliffe here in Bristol, wrote the New Dominion Projects' Neal Osborne, who, it should be noted, would go on to endorse McAuliffe's primary opponent, Rep. Brian Moran. "I have to say I was very impressed with him (of course, I went in with nearly zero expectations). If nothing else, Terry McAuliffe is super-energetic, as I'm sure anyone who watched MSNBC over the last twelve months knows."

"Last night, I attended a dinner with Terry McAuliffe to hear more about his campaign," read an entry on the blog NotLarrySabato. "Almost three hours later, I came away very impressed. The other two candidates for Governor have made a HUGE strategic error in questioning Terry's Virginia credentials. The bar is so low for Terry on knowing local issues that he could have jumped it with some minor prep work. Instead he crushed that argument by being totally prepared to answer every issue that was discussed."

That McAuliffe is turning heads among Virginia's progressive bloggers is both something of a surprise and a not-inconsequential development in the 2009 race. The state's blogging community played a major role in helping propel Jim Webb to his current Senate seat, though the closure of the progressive hub Raising Kane could mitigate its collective influence.

On the surface, McAuliffe doesn't appear to be the type of candidate around which the netroots would organize. Campaigning, at times sharply, against Barack Obama and having roots in the big-money quarters of politics are traits anathema to many progressives. The current good reviews could end up being a mere short-term flirtation.

But the charismatic Clinton confidant has worked to win local bloggers over. Keeping the issues primarily local, his campaign has hosted a conference call, a group dinner, phone calls and one-on-one meetings with members of that community. Blog ads are set to go up soon as well. And the gubernatorial contest has just begun.

"He has been impressive since he has started running," said NotLarrySabato author Ben Tribbett, who is staying neutral in the primary. "I think he has taken the different candidates to another level, on fundraising and message."

"I think he is making a very credible effort to reach out to bloggers," said Rick Howell, the author of the blog Rick Howell Speaks. "I know that the other two candidates have been in the race for some time and I don't think they have done blogger conference calls, at least not ones I've been invited to... I don't think that this is enough, but I think it helps. He has identified this modern new trend in politics with the Internet -- fundraising and quick communications -- and I don't think it is a coincidence that he is suddenly in the newspapers more."

Not everyone, of course, is ready to jump head first on board the McAuliffe bandwagon. One local blogger, who asked not to be identified, said the former DNC chair's grasp of the Virginian issues was commendable, but his solution to the problems -- "usually throwing more money at them" -- was not. Another local blogger recently rapped McAuliffe for not being progressive enough in his renewable energy proposal.

Neutral observers, meanwhile, see in McAuliffe's blog outreach not a shared ethos between the former DNC chair and Virginia's bloggers, but rather another well considered step in a campaign that is both meticulous and overpowering in its approach.

"So far, they are doing all of the smart groundwork sort of stuff," said Craig Brians, a political science professor at Virginia Tech. "They are laying that groundwork and trying to raise the barriers to entry for other people by doing the mass media buys and endearing [Terry] to people who naturally wouldn't tend towards him. They are giving the blogging community something that is fairly sacred in politics: personal attention."

[Lunar]

It's not surprising Ben Tribbett is head over heels for McAuliffe, he was an incredibly obnoxious Hillary supporter during the primaries.

And also, I should note he tends to back primary losers like Leslie Byrne and Hillary.

Regardless, McAuliffe is running an incredibly smooth campaign operation and I expect him to win his party's nomination.

[Lunar]

What has Moran been spending his money on?

And Terry is very, very, very self-conscious about appearing to "buy" the race.  His big donations won't come yet

[Lunar]

Sorry Deeds-fans

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/20/AR2009012001986.html

During this year's campaign for governor of Virginia, one piece of trivia that will probably be invoked is that since Jimmy Carter was elected president in 1976, the party that has won the White House has lost the state's race for governor the next year.

But here is another tidbit that might be more relevant in this year's contest: Since 1957, no delegate or state senator has won the nomination for governor without first leaving the General Assembly to serve in a higher office.

In Virginia, where governors can run for only one term, major party nominees in modern times have been sitting or former lieutenant governors, attorneys general, congressmen or businessmen.

Brian Moran (D), who resigned last month from the House of Delegates to focus on fundraising, and state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) are hoping to buck that trend. But first, they have to get past Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

McAuliffe's candidacy is offering clues why it is so hard for state lawmakers to leap to the highest office in the commonwealth.

In campaign finance reports released last week, Deeds reported raising $658,000 from July 1 to Dec. 31. Moran raised $755,000, including a $50,000 donation from his brother, U.S. Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.). Although their coffers are respectable, Moran and Deeds appear to be well short of the resources needed to wage a modern TV campaign.

McAuliffe raised $950,000, but he had been a candidate for only the last six weeks of the reporting period.

In dealing with McAuliffe's entry into the race, Moran and Deeds face a unique challenge.

Moran, who has not had to run a competitive race since being elected to the General Assembly in 1995, will have to keep pace with McAuliffe financially or figure out how to make strategic spending decisions that won't jeopardize his bid.

Deeds is starting to signal that he might not try to raise or spend money on the same scale as his opponents. If that occurs, Deeds risks a trap that befell former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in last year's GOP presidential primaries -- he's a popular guy who was never quite accepted as a serious contender.

Although many State House insiders were initially skeptical of McAuliffe, he has been running a nearly flawless campaign. Democrats and Republicans are taking him seriously.

McAuliffe has put together a campaign team of veterans of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's (D) successful 2005 run. His advisers also have experience waging hard-fought national campaigns, which is translating into a sophisticated, media-savvy approach.

Consider how McAuliffe officially entered the race two weeks ago.

He had been telegraphing for weeks that he would announce his decision Jan. 7 on whether to run. So what did he do? He pulled off a surprise Jan. 3, a Saturday, releasing a video saying that he was going to run but would officially kick off his campaign Jan. 7.

The result was a round of stories in Sunday newspapers, often the most read of the week, about McAuliffe's decision. He got another round of coverage later in the week, after officially kicking off his campaign.

Since then, McAuliffe's campaign has been about building an image of overwhelming Deeds and Moran. On Jan. 7, McAuliffe also unveiled his first radio advertisement.

The 60-second spot, kicking off perhaps the earliest gubernatorial ad campaign in state history, aired on black radio stations in Richmond and Norfolk.

McAuliffe's decision to target black voters shows he understands that African Americans are a crucial demographic in the June primary.

He has also found a way to keep his name in the media -- newspapers, TV, Democratic blogs -- almost daily. McAuliffe recently sought to shed his millionaire image by waiting tables in Hampton Roads. On Inauguration Day, he was planning to host a watch party for Democrats in Richmond instead of hobnobbing with A-list friends in Washington.

Mike Henry, McAuliffe's campaign manager, outlined his formidable campaign operation in a memo last week to supporters. In it, Henry said that McAuliffe has bought Internet and newspaper ads and plans to hire 40 field organizers.

McAuliffe is building a strategy that combines grass-roots organizing with paid media. Henry said in his memo that three-fourths of the campaign budget will be reserved to "communicate directly with voters."

Moran, who spent $150,000 more than he raised during the reporting period, will have to decide how to prioritize his campaign. If he invests too heavily in staff and field efforts, he might not have the resources to launch an effective media campaign. If he skimps on field organizers to do more advertising, he runs the risk of being out-organized by McAuliffe.

Moran is signaling that he'll try to do it all, as evidenced by the decision to hire Democratic strategist Joe Trippi as his media adviser.

Trippi is acclaimed for helping Howard Dean harness the Internet as a campaign tool during his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004.

It's unclear how Moran can afford new staff members. Last week, he announced that he had hired a campaign manager. Before those two hires, he had spent about $650,000 from July through December on consultants and fundraising, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.

Deeds has been frugal. But in interviews, he has said that he will not try to keep up with McAuliffe in fundraising and campaign apparatus.

The Deeds campaign appears to preparing for a strategy based on a primary turnout similar to that in the 2006 contest between  Sen. James Webb and Harris Miller, a lawyer.

In that contest, 4 percent of registered voters showed up at the polls, most of whom were die-hard Democrats. But turnout could spike dramatically this year in what is the first contested Democratic gubernatorial primary in more than two decades. If Deeds tries to run a campaign that is too low-key, he could be left behind as McAuliffe and Moran battle daily on TV for the affections of first-time voters.

Without a statewide base or national fundraising experience, Deeds and Moran have to work extra hard to prove that legislators have what it takes to mount a successful campaign for governor.

[Lunar]

^ thanks guys.

Ben, any comments on the story above that shows a couple damning facts and Terry's massive momentum?

Repeatedly quoting posts without contribution = blerg.

[Lunar]

I know Joe Trippi is beloved by the "netroots", but has he ever managed a winning campaign?

Yes he has, starting when he was 24 years old he got Mayor Bradley (of the Bradley Effect) elected in L.A.  Notably for y'all, he's managed media strategies for ex-Governor of Virginia too: Jerry Baliles as well as Senators Mikulski, Wyden and Casey and ex-Senator Cranston.

He played a role in Wilder's (VA) and Brown's (CA) gubernatorial campaigns, as well as Tony Blair (UK) and plenty of other successful campaigns:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Trippi

Its his presidential campaigns (Kennedy, Dean, Kerry, Edwards) that keep getting derailed

[Lunar]

Lunar, my friend, this primary is only just beginning.

Oh, I didn't say otherwise.

But I was trying to provoke some responses.  I'm also being the anti-hero to those of us who don't want Terry to win (everyone except Beet and Walter I think).

[Lunar]

Meh who cares.


Terry's got the first TV ad released in the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area I presume:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdIXEzdpQ0w&eurl


kind of funny how he separates himself from NoVa

[Lunar]

I feel like Terry's ace in the hole might be the minority vote

[Lunar]

On the latter, you may be right.  The minority vote (Hispanics & Blacks) are a particular emphasis  of his outreach but would only come into play if everything else is in an all-else-is-equal realm.   I'm just saying it's not a stretch to imagine them putting him over  the finish line.

Hopefully not,. but they certainly ain't gonna all rush over to Deeds

[Lunar]

I feel like Terry's ace in the hole might be the minority vote

Why the hell would blacks back an uber-anti-Obama hack?

They backed Hillary more than they did Obama until he started winning and Bill started running his mouth.  I expect Hispanics and Blacks still love the Clinton name now that the primary is over.

I know it's hard, but don't be delusional.  Socioeconomic poor minorities are going to back the candidate with the most money.

[Lunar]

I feel like Terry's ace in the hole might be the minority vote

Why the hell would blacks back an uber-anti-Obama hack?

are they going to remember?

The other candidates could certainly remind them. Terry's greatest hits on the media would make for some great campaign ads.

maybe a great Youtube ad... not that that matters for the minority vote

[Lunar]

Watch Terry talk about Deeds S&M sexy life and Moran's ass, including some low blows:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOp-js7g2gk&eur

[Lunar]

yeah, well, at least Deeds is keeping his day job even though it means he can raise more money.

I think you're overplaying regionalism and the effect of Terry & Brian duking it out.  This is more about getting your voters to the polls through a complex organization than it is some sort of North vs. South thing.  And even though regionalism does play a role, it's a lot easier to get a sweeping organization in play in Northern Virginia's clustered Democratic areas than some sweeping expanse in Southern Virginia.

[Lunar]

It's all be internal lately.  I think this thread already covered the Rasumussen poll taken Feb. 5th.

Polls don't mean anything anyway, it's too difficult to calculate what the turnout will be and, assuming it's 5% turnout or whatever, who will show up.

[Lunar]

and the most electable against a very strong GOP candidate

[Lunar]

Didn't you just say that polls this far out are useless?

They haven't been defined by a GOP opponent yet

[Lunar]

He's not really a blue dog if you look at his record.  But yes, something in that.  Being from Virginia helps too.

[Lunar]

Were they all from NoVa and spoke with a thick Boston accent?  Meh, I said it helps not that it's a prerequisite.  I'm not sure how you could argue that being more moderate isn't really important for Democrats to win in Virginia (Warner, Webb, Wilder, Kaine...)