Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Boucher endorses Deeds

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[Kaine for Senate '18]

I predict that it will be McAuliffe versus McDonnell with the latter being the winner.

McAuliffe won't win the primary.  He has no base, and too many people dislike him.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I predict that it will be McAuliffe versus McDonnell with the latter being the winner.

McAuliffe won't win the primary.  He has no base, and too many people dislike him.

...His base is NOVA...

I think he and Moran will split the NOVA vote; wherever McAuliffe does well, Moran will do well too.  Deeds, on the other hand, is in complete control of the southern part of Virginia, with the other two not even close.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Money may be important, but I don't think it will help McAuliffe as much as you think it will.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It would seem we're in for a crowded Democratic primary ballot. A fourth Democrat is running, Michael Signer, who served in the Warner administration and worked for Clark and Edwards in 2004.

He's actually running for Lt. Governor.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Knowing McAuliffe, he'll probably find some way to blow it in the end.

Hopefully it'll happen before he wins the nomination.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If McAuliffe wins, do you think he'll run for President in '16?

No way.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is a vocal supporter of the death penalty.

In that case, Deeds = massive HP FF

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I will admit that things don't look good for Deeds.  McAuliffe's momentum, however, will slow, and the enthusiasm will fade.  Eventually, Moran and Deeds are going to start attacking him, and will force him to attack back.  I admit that he seems to be doing a good job so far, but he's only been running for under 4 weeks.

Deeds' strategy is basically the scenario I see for him.  Even if turnout increases, McAuliffe and Moran will split the NOVA and black voters, while Deeds' base will stay intact, and he'll also get at least 10-15% of the NOVA voters; even if turnout rises to 8-10%, and I don't expect it go higher, Deeds will have a good chance to win.  I don't think he'll have to worry about being seen as a serious contender; if he had won just a few hundred more votes, he'd probably be unopposed in his bid for Governor this year.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

When can we expect another poll to be released?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

kind of funny how he separates himself from NoVa

That's probably smart of him for now.  He should try and build up support in other parts of the state.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I feel like Terry's ace in the hole might be the minority vote

I'm not sure he's so popular with the minority vote; and even if he is, I don't think enough minorities will vote to swing the election to him.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I agree they won't rush over to Deeds, but I don't think McAuliffe will win them by enough of a margin to have them be his ace.  He'll probably split the minority vote with Moran, and have Deeds in third.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If McAuliffe is the nominee, how many of the Dems on this forum will back McDonnell?

I may back McDonnell, but I may choose to support the Independent Green candidate.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Did somebody post this?

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_203.pdf

McAuliffe 18%
Moran 18%
Deeds 11%

I guess I'm backing Moran for now.

Those aren't good numbers, but it's still early.  I still think that Deeds will pull things out in the end.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

That was pretty amusing.  Deeds seemed the weakest, sadly.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't think Terry has this one locked up.  We've got 4 months to go, and as we see Moran and Terry duke it out, Deeds will slowly creep up.  By the day of the primary, Moran and Terry are going to split their vote, allowing Deeds to win the nomination.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If we get a map like this (ignore the shading):


That could produce a victory for Deeds.  It would be a very narrow victory, but I think it would give Deeds the win.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

All that matters is turnout. A ridiculously small number of people are going to be voting in an off-off-year gubernatorial primary.

I think turnout will be very high compared to previous elections.  It still won't be very high, but it'll be higher than any previous Gubernatorial primary.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Anybody seen any polls recently?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is going to be speaking to the Arlington Democrats on Wednesday, so I'm going to try and go see him.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Deeds is the best candidate; he's the only one with a chance to win.  McAuliffe and Moran are both too liberal to win statewide, that's just a fact.  The polling for them matters little at this point, because they haven't been clearly defined yet.  Voters know Deeds, and know that he is a good fit for them.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, I missed Deeds tonight; he was only there for part of the time, and I arrived too late

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I don't think these Special Election results are indicative of anything.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wow. That is so infuriating. If his opponents can't come up with an effective way to counter an advertisement like that, they probably deserve to lose.

Just run an ad with clips of him attacking Obama, and supporting Clinton.  It won't be hard.