New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday

[Ryan in Iowa]

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I kinda doubt its that close.

That's pretty strange. Ernst is going to be running up the score in IA-04, wouldn't Braley have to be running up the score in IA-01 to offset that, assuming it's a 1 point race overall?

IA-02 is the heavy dem district, which contains Iowa City/Johnson county, a very liberal area compared to the rest of the state.

However, Braley will win IA-01 by more than 1 in my opinion. I have always thought Braley would win a close race, and I still think that. The early voting laws in Iowa create great conditions for Dems to win close races.

Very early voting + great dem organization (it really is) = dems win close races in Iowa

[Ryan in Iowa]

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Things didn't improve this much for Braley, even though I think he might be gaining in this race very slowly.

The big reason for the difference in the 2 polls is the likely voter. This is all because of Iowa having early voting.

A pollster can't kick a low interest left leaning voter out of the likely voting pool if they say the already voted. She even admits this in the write up for the recent poll.

I would bet this makes up 2-3% of Braley's gains between the 2 polls.