Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Andrea]

Savona finished

Marco Russo (centre-left) 62,25%
Angelo Schirru (centre-right) 37,75   

CL gain

[Andrea]

Damiano Coletta set to be re-elected in Latina.
He is at 54.5% with 100/116 reported.

CR candidate was at 48% in R1. Coletta go 35% (with both PD and M5S already in).

[Andrea]

Turin final

Lo Russo 59.23%
Damilano 40.77%

Caserta and Isernia won by centre-left.

[Andrea]

Trieste final

Dipiazza (CR) 51.3%
Russo (CL) 48.7%

CR hold

Isernia final

Pietro Castrataro  (CL) 58,72
Gabriele Melogli  (CR) 41.28

CL gain

Benevento final

Clemente Mastella (CR) 52,68
Luigi Parafano (CL) 47,32

Mastella hold


Varese final

Davide Galimberti (CL) 53.20%
Matteo Bianchi (CR) 46.8%

CL hold. Used to be a Lega stronghold until 2016.

[Andrea]

Guerra easily winning in Parma. Currently at 65.71% with count almost half way.

Centre-left leading Piacenza 54 to 46%. 54 polling places reported out of 108.

Tommasi is leading in Verona with 54% with 111 polling places reported out of 265.

It seems centre-left is also leading in Catanzaro.

Lucca is tight so far.

[Andrea]

Tommasi has won in Verona

220 polling places out of 265

Tommasi 53.63%
Sboarina 46.37%

[Andrea]

Other trends emerging

Alessandria, Cuneo, Carrara to CL

Frosinone, Barletta, Gorizia to CR

Monza is tight.

CR now leading in Lucca. Still tight.

Independent wins in Como.

[Andrea]

Monza is going to centre-left, 51 to 49%
They never re-elected the incumbent since the introduction of directly elected mayors. And they continued the trend today.

Only centre-left disappointment seems to be Lucca.

[Andrea]

Azione leaves the agreement with PD

[Andrea]

Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.

[Andrea]

Indeed.

Here is the example of the designa of a ballot paper from 2018

http://www.prefettura.it/FILES/AllegatiPag/1141/Fac-Simile_Scheda_Camera_-_Circoscrizione_Lombardia_1_-_Collegio_Plurinominale_1_-_Collegio_Uninominale_6.pdf

In capital letters you have the FPTP candidates. Then behind each of them the logos of lists backing him and the names of the candidates for the PR part next to the logos.

[Andrea]

PD executive was supposed to approve candidates names this morning.
Then they moved the meeting to 3pm. Then to 8pm. Now to 9.30pm.

[Andrea]

PD lists

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vxeMb0325Kc6DWVA8A9jUNLtWR6ghOF5/view

"Coalizione" are the constituencies given to allies.

Yes, Casini got Bologna senatorial constituency again.

[Andrea]

) . Also a few posts for their partners in the "Italy Democratic and Progressive" list (despite Speranza's "capolista" and DemoS' Paolo Ciani has been placed in the very safe Roma centre House constituency).

Speranza's lot got 4 seats
Speranza top in Campania 1-01
Arturo Scotto second in Tuscany 3
Nicola Stumpo top in Calabria 01-1
Federico Fornaro top in Piemonte 02-1

[Andrea]

The 15 names proposed by Conte to get high spots on M5S lists are

Stefania Patunelli, former cabinet minister in both Conte's and Draghi's government
Michele Gubitosa, Vice President of M5S
Riccardo Ricciardi, Vice President of M5S
Alessandra Todde, Vice President of M5S
Mario Turco, Vice President of M5S
Chiara Appendino, former mayor of Turin
Francesco Silvestri, head of the parliamentary group at the House
Maria Domenica Castellone,  head of the parliamentary group at the Senate
Ettore Lichere, former head of parliamentary group at the Senate
Barbara Floridia, under-secretary for education in Draghi's government Sergio Costa, former cabinet minister for environment in Conte's government
Federico Cafiero de Raho, former prosecutor
Roberto Scarpinato,  former prosecutor
Livio de Santoli, academic professor in energy management
Alfredo Colucci, the notary of the party

[Andrea]

M5S candidates
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LISTE-DI-CANDIDATI-CAMERA.pdf
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/LISTE-DI-CANDIDATI-SENATO.pdf

Number of votes taken by candidates in the selection processs
https://www.movimento5stelle.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/ESITO-VOTAZIONI-16-AGOSTO-2022.pdf

[Andrea]

## Bi-Proportional Seat Allocation in Italy ##

I'm interested how seats are assigned to party lists in multi-member districts.

Is there any form of "bi-proportional apportionment" used in order to give proportional results by party list and by multi-member district?

Are there any papers in English or German (I don't speak any Italian)?

Best,
Oliver

i'm not sure to understand, but there is only one proportional one a national level for the chamber and one a regional level for the senate

I think he means how seats are allocated to parties in each circumscription/pluri-nominal constituency.
So the complicated thing in how the number of seats won by each party based on national share are then allocated to circumscription and then from circumscriptions to pluri-nominal constituencies.

It is biproportional because number of seats of each party is proportional to its total votes but also number of seats of each region/circumscriptions/whatever is more or less proportional to its total votes (Lombardia 1 having 16 seats while Lombardia 4 having 7 seats, etc).

[Andrea]

Amendola (under-secretary to Draghi, former European Affairs minister for Conte) got La Regina's top spot in Basilicata list. La Regina resigned this morning after some controversial social media posts were highlighted yesterday.

[Andrea]

Pizzarotti's outfit will run with Italia Viva.

It has already ended in tears.

[Andrea]

La7 projections based on first counting

Coalition
Right 43.3%
PD and allies 25.4%
M5S 17
Calenda/Renzi 7.9

FdI 26
Lega 8.4
Forza Italia 7.0
Noi moderati 1

PD 18.1
Green Left 3.6
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.6

M5S 167

Renzi-Calenda 7.9

[Andrea]

La7 projections based on first counting

Coalition
Right 43.3%
PD and allies 25.4%
M5S 17
Calenda/Renzi 7.9

FdI 26
Lega 8.4
Forza Italia 7.0
Noi moderati 1

PD 18.1
Green Left 3.6
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.6

M5S 167

Renzi-Calenda 7.9

Projections on Rai TV

FdI 24.6
Lega 8.5
Forza Italia 8.0
Noi moderati 1.1


PD 19.4
Green Left 3.5
+Europe 2.9

M5S 16.5

Renzi-Calenda 7.3

[Andrea]

Updated La7 projection

Coalition
Right 43.8%
PD and allies 25.8%
M5S 16.6
Calenda/Renzi 7.8

FdI 26
Lega 8.7
Forza Italia 8.2
Noi moderati 0.9

PD 18.3
Green Left 3.7
+Europe 3.1
Di Maio 0.8

[Andrea]

New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable



https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574167580545359873?s=20&t=KQPgxgU5H3IWLedPybER0w

[Andrea]

The Florence Senate candidate is not even PD, it was "landed" to Green/Left.

[Andrea]

Bologna city results coming in and Casini is now leading 40 to 31%.