Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Andrea]

Why does

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

show 146 FPTP seats for the lower house. I thought there were 147 FPTP seats ..

the 147th is Aosta Valley. It is not included in that calculation

[Andrea]

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

How are the PR seats doled out again? If I remember right they still have constituencies but... it's done nationally? So are the number of seats worked out nationally and then just filled out at constituency level without having to align with votes cast in them, or...?

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution). In the Senate, I'm not sure. It's possible they're still allotted regionally, which would explain FI's relative underperformance (higher effective threshold).

Yes, alloted at regional level for the Senate

The Interior Ministry published a (tentative, since there are still a few dozen unreported precincts) distribution of PR seats, which gives 114 seats to the right in the House and 56 in the Senate - one fewer than I estimated in each. Not sure if the results moved a bit since I last calculated them or if I didn't use the right formula, but either way, worth noting.

FI gets 22 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate - so far not enough to be decisive in either, but we'll have to see who the winners of FPP districts are. FI needs 16 more in the House and 7 more in the Senate, so well within reach.

Are the PR seats distributed in 2 steps (by coalition list and then by parties inside the list) or directly by parties?

IIRC, yes.

[Andrea]

I'm pretty sure the party distribution is national for the House (they are still broken down by constituency, but only after the national party distribution).

Right. This is the part I struggle with... just... what? It seems completely nonsensical?

It is even worse...broken down in circumscriptions and then from circumscription into plurinominal constituencies....
total seats for circumscriptions and plurinominal constituencies should match their overall entitlements...but the toal for each list should match the national totals....

[Andrea]

Point h of article 1 of electoral law

Subsequently, the Office ascertains if the number of seats assigned in all constituencies a
each coalition of lists or single list corresponds to the number of
seats determined pursuant to letter f). [the total number of seats assigned at national level]
If not, proceeds to the following operations, starting with the coalition of lists or single list that has the largest number of excess seats and, in case of parity of excess seats by more than one coalition of lists or single lists, from the one that has obtained the highest national electoral share, then continuing with the other coalitions of lists or single lists in descending order of excess seats:

it subtracts the excess seats from the coalition of lists or single lists in the circumscriptions in which it obtained them with the parties decimals of the attribution quotients, according to their order growing, and in which also the coalitions of lists or singles lists, which have not obtained the number of seats due, have unused decimal parts of quotients.
Consequently, assigns seats to such coalitions of lists or single lists.
 So far as in the same constituency two or more coalitions of lists o individual lists have unused decimal parts of the quotients, the seat is attributed to the coalition of lists or to the single list
with the highest decimal part of the quotient not used or, in case of parity, to the one with the highest national electoral figure.
In the event that it is not possible to assign the seat in excess in the same constituency, as there are no coalitions of lists or single lists in deficit with decimal parts of quotients not
used, the Office continues, for the same coalition of lists o single excess list, in the order of increasing decimals, identify another constituency, until it is possible subtract the surplus seat and assign it to a coalition of lists or single list in deficit in the same constituency.
if it is not possible to refer to same circumscription for the purpose of completing previous operations, up to the number of seats still to be sold, to the coalition of slates or single surplus slates are subtracted from the seats in the circumscriptions in which he obtained them with the minor parts decimals of the attribution quotient and the coalition of lists o seats are consequently assigned to a single list in deficit in the other circumscriptions in which it has the major parts unused decimals of the attribution quotient;

[Andrea]

All calculations in the distribution of PR seats at the House

https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Camera_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf


MPs elected at the House
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Camera_Estero.pdf

MPs elected at the Senate
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Italia.pdf
https://dait.interno.gov.it/documenti/Politiche2022_Eletti_Senato_Estero.pdf

Some have been elected in more constituencies, so they will have decide where giving up.

[Andrea]

And Tabacci lives for another day.

[Andrea]

At least 35 M5S MPs re-elected

Aiello Davide 
Ascari Stefania 
Baldino Vittoria 
Bruno Raffaele 
Cantone Luciano   
Castellone Maria Domenica 
Cataldi Roberto 
Croatti Marco 
D'orso Valentina 
Dell'olio Gianmauro 
Di Girolamo Gabriella 
Di Lauro Carmela 
Fede Giorgio 
Fenu Emiliano 
Floridia Barbara 
Fontana Ilaria 
Giuliano Carla 
Gubitosa Michele 
Guidolin Barbara 
L'abbate Pasqua 
Licheri Ettore Antonio 
Lomuti Arnaldo 
Maiorino Alessandra 
Naturale Gisella 
Pellegrini Marco 
Pirro Elisa 
Raffa Angela 
Ricciardi Riccardo 
Santillo Agostino 
Scerra Filippo 
Silvestri Francesco 
Sportiello Gilda 
Torto Daniela 
Traversi Roberto 
Turco Mario 


Some people like Conte were elected in more constituencies. I didn't check who was second in line behind them.

[Andrea]

I see the 16 MPs elected by Green/Left list include 3 former M5S (2 sitting MPs and 1 sitting MEP).

[Andrea]

Bossi is re-elected

In a news surprising few people, it turns out that Interior Ministry allocation of seats from national to multi-member constituencies was, well, not totally correct.
Other seats were wrongly allocated.  I see one Green/Left seat has gone from Piemonte 2 to Campania 1.

[Andrea]

When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

New Parliament will meet first time on October 13th. They have to elect the presidents of both chambers. Third ballot (usually the next day) will require just absolute majority.
Then when both presidents are elected, Mattarella can start meeting parliamentary groups. Then he will given the assignment to Meloni. Should be pretty fast given the majorities are clear.

[Andrea]

The document "Camera_riparto_italia_20220925" is quite interesting. Is there a similar document for the Senate?

I’m really trying to understand how the seats are assigned to the multi-member districts? Is there an explanation in English?

How are this compensation seats („compensazione“) and the seats which are finally assigned to the lists calculated?

Senate seat calculation are here: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/daithome/documenti/Senato_riparto_italia_20220925.pdf
All reports/Open Data downloable are there: https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/report/20220925

As they tried to explain in earlier posts, the whole PR seat distribution process into constituencies is very complex (the italian media called the calculus as "the Flipper effect"), at the House first calculate nationwide (minus Aosta Valley), then at constituency level (first coalitions/single lists above 3%/regional-minority lists above 20%, later lists above 3% within coalitions), then correct when the results don't match with the nationwide calc, and then distribute within the proportional districts, in the Senate nationwide vote only matters for thresholds as regional/constituency seat distribution prevails, then correct by PR district level.

The "compensation seats" are the corrections to the nationwide result, it's a game of rests, quotients, etc, the "lista eccedentaria"/"lista deficitaria" calcs may help as the corrections happens when the we have an extra "integral quotient" seat in a lower "quotient decimal" attribution.

The seat distribution in the Chamber may change again when all the missing precincts (specially at Sicily cames) or when the Corte di Cassazione jury falls with the final results.

It apparently changed today due to some corrections in Puglia.
Forza Italia seat moved from Foggia to Toranto (from Lanotte to De Palma).
In the Green/Left, Fratoianni's wife gets in instead someone in Emilia

[Andrea]

Civil Service: Zangrillo (FI)
Environment and Energy: Pichetto Fratin (FI)

Meloni originally said the opposite when she first read the list...then they issued a statement switching them.