In Louisiana 03
Tauzin (R) got 32% vs Melancon (d) who got 24%
Total of all GOP candidates was 59%, so this seat looks string for the GOP
In Lousiania 07
Boustany (R) got 39% vs Mount (D) who got 25%
However total Dem vote was 51% vs 49% GOP - Flip a coin on this one, though with lower runoff turnout the Dem may have a tiny edge, though Vitter getting 51% for the GOP in the senate race is a very positive GOP sign.
Runoffs in Louisiana are, to put it mildly, hard to predict. The state polls badly, and turnout is like a yo-you so you don't even really know what your even trying to sample...
While what you note of the actual vote totals in the first election is true, your conclusions are a little open to question.
In the 3rd, Tauzin's initial campaign was very hard on the other Republican (who has declined to endorese him).
In the 7th, Mount conspired with the state party to shiv the other major Democrat in the race (Cravins), who has declined to endorse her.
I suspect that That Tauzin III will eke out a victory in the 3rd, and the Boustanay will beat Mount decisively in the 7th.
Poll
