MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[Xing]

Probably Trone. Either one will underperform Biden by a lot... and still very easily win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alsobrooks

[kwabbit]

I'm thinking Trone at this point. PPP not giving the primary numbers is telling. There's only six days left and Trone has been in the driver's seat the entire time. Alsobrooks just hasn't made a compelling enough case as to why Trone supporters should switch to her. Despite her endorsements, she doesn't have an ideological angle or an electability angle to persuade people. She's relying solely on the endorsements and on making history as a Black woman, but that doesn't make enough of a difference.

[Agafin]

I'm thinking Trone at this point. PPP not giving the primary numbers is telling. There's only six days left and Trone has been in the driver's seat the entire time. Alsobrooks just hasn't made a compelling enough case as to why Trone supporters should switch to her. Despite her endorsements, she doesn't have an ideological angle or an electability angle to persuade people. She's relying solely on the endorsements and on making history as a Black woman, but that doesn't make enough of a difference.

I honestly think the black argument probably has some value. Aren't black voters the race most likely to vote for their own? I have a hard time seeing Brandon beat Vallas in the Chicago mayoral race if the races were reversed for example.

[LabourJersey]

At this point I think Trone.

Alsobrooks waited way too late to energize her campaign and enlist the Maryland Dem establishment to help her.

Not a fan of Trone but it feels the money and his early ground game will be decisive.

[Thomas D]

I voted for Alsobrooks. In this poll and IRL

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Alsobrooks likely wins very narrowly.

[Agafin]

Seems like Alsobrooks might be getting the late deciders vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think Alsobrooks narrowly takes it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Seems like Alsobrooks might be getting the late deciders vote.

Emily’s List and such groups have really been pumping money in for her, from what I’ve seen.

[Oryxslayer]

Seems like Alsobrooks might be getting the late deciders vote.

As was her strategy. Even if it fails, her campaign never could consistently counter Trone's mountain of cash, and would just be buried if her resources her dispersed. So instead they opted to exponentially ramp things up close to the end when opinions matter most. Even though that required sacrifices and unfavorable narratives that have permutated even this board. If those late deciders are primarily African American, then the campaign planned their strategy especially well. 

[MarkD]

I predict Trone will win, but my electoral predictions are usually worth as much as an endorsement -- worth a thimble full of s*it.

[Beet]

I predict Trone. I see about 20 Trone ads for every Alsobrooks ad. Sad.

[Talleyrand]

Pretty comfortable Trone win, unfortunately.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Exciting that Alsobrooks, will be the next blk Senator

[Atlas Force]

Alsobrooks

[Mr. Smith]

Alsobrooks. Same reason Ben Jealous took on 2018 and not Rushern Baker.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trone.

[Zenobiyl]

Trone

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fwiw I am a doomer and think Total Wineman takes it. He shouldn’t - he’s certainly not more electable than Alsobrooks - but I think he’s just got too much money.

[DK_Mo82]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

[Roll Roons]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

[LabourJersey]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Yes, the Hogan announcement scrambled the race.

If you told someone a year ago that the Maryland senate race would be more competitive than the Virginia race, they wouldn't have believed you. Now you have Hogan looking competitive for now, and absolutely no one thinks Virginia is competitive.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Yes, the Hogan announcement scrambled the race.

If you told someone a year ago that the Maryland senate race would be more competitive than the Virginia race, they wouldn't have believed you. Now you have Hogan looking competitive for now, and absolutely no one thinks Virginia is competitive.

Relatively competitive. Virginia is just a wee bit darker a shade of safe blue.

[LabourJersey]

It's basically a toss up but I have been unimpressed with Trone so far.. Alsobrooks may have slight edge if forced to choose, Race Polarization could be significant in the Democratic primary.

I never imaged I say this but Alsobrooks is not a shoe-in to beat Hogan if she makes that far.  She probably wins anyway due to it being a pres year but man these are bad candidates when you compare to Gallego or the California field..

Democrats wouldn't have had to bring their A-game in this race against anyone but Hogan, but he didn't announce until the day of the filing deadline and until then, there was zero indication that he was going to run.

Yes, the Hogan announcement scrambled the race.

If you told someone a year ago that the Maryland senate race would be more competitive than the Virginia race, they wouldn't have believed you. Now you have Hogan looking competitive for now, and absolutely no one thinks Virginia is competitive.

Relatively competitive. Virginia is just a wee bit darker a shade of safe blue.

That is fair, but it's remarkable how little activity we see in VA compared to MD, given how different they are politically.