South Australian state election - 17th March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Still nothing from Elder, Gibson or Black...

There's always one or two which take two or three hours before the first numbers come in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Why the  is SAB taking from Labor in a lot of seats, it seems off.

SA Best is taking, statewide, equally from Labor and the Liberals

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In the five notionally flipped seats:
LAB->LIB
Colton - Looking good for the Libs, though still needs some more northern booths.
Elder - Still Nothing
Mawson - I think Labor might hold on here.
Newland - Down to the wire.

LIB->LAB
Hurtle Vale - Looking good for Labor

[AustralianSwingVoter]

King, the new NE seat is looking good for the Liberals, with a Labor margin of under 1%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Very unrepresentative booths but the Liberals are looking good in Lee

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think the Liberals might just be able to get a majority.

[Lachi]

This is looking like a 24 seat liberal win.

[Lachi]

Haha, the ABC's feed of Xenophon's speech is as patchy as their results.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I can't see anything other than Heysen for SA Best. Hartley is definitely slipping away.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is looking like a 24 seat liberal win.

I think that there's a good chance they'll be getting it on the back of the Greens. It looks like Greens preferences will put Labor over the Liberals in a few Hills seats, and SA Best preferences split only about 60-40 to Labor, while Labor splits 80-40 to SA Best.

[Lachi]

Wow, SAB getting blow out in Giles is really surprising me.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just noticed this, the Liberals seem to be going very well in Enfield and I did not see that coming.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wow, SAB getting blow out in Giles is really surprising me.

Not really if you think about it. Weatherhill has moved mountains for Whyalla and I think this is them showing their appreciation.

[Lachi]

Heysen back in doubt

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I really think that SA Best ad was the turning point of this campaign. Before it you were arguing that SA Best performance won't be as good as everything was indicating, but afterwards you talking about that they were going to go well in spite of everything. I don't think it changed that many minds but I'm certain it changed the feeling and perception, and after it everything started to go wrong.

[Lachi]

Enfield 2PP numbers are not representative according to Antony.

[Lachi]

Representative numbers have come in for Enfield. Rau will win easily.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Heysen back in doubt

I think there's a good chance that Labor will leapfrog SA Best on Greens preferences here. If they can get 70% of preferences, and I think that is probable, as Greens voters vote Labor 2 with a passion, then they can get over SA Best. SA Best preferences will not flow anywhere near strongly enough to Labor to give them Heysen.

[Lachi]

My current projection is a likely Liberal majority

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Heysen back in doubt

I just checked, the greens put the Liberals ahead of SA Best in Heysen, so yeah, I think there's a good chance they won't win it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Two and a half hours later and still nothing from Dunstan

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My current projection is a likely Liberal majority

I'm inclined to agree with you.

[Lachi]

Elder is very close.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I know don't know if SA Best can win Heysen even if they are in the top two.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something weird's happening in Waite.