English local elections 2011

[Harry Hayfield]

Are we shortly going to have the grand total of votes cast in Election 2011 (which will presumably comprise English locals, Scottish Parliament (constituency), Welsh Assembly (constituency) and Northern Ireland (first preferences by party)) and if so, may I be permitted to generate a general election map based on those results?

[Harry Hayfield]

Since many parts of England didn't vote, use the swing to predict, not the raw votes btw...

According to the Telegraph's map, there were only the counties (Northumberland, Shropshire, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire and Cornwall) plus London and a few other councils that didn't vote (but based on the exit poll for the AV referendum it should be easy to make a projected vote share in those council areas) and then add them to the English totals.

[Harry Hayfield]

Good lord, what happened in Spelthorne? I make that an almost 15% swing from Lab to UKIP and yet despite that not a single UKIP candidate was elected.

[Harry Hayfield]

My estimates for a 650 seat House of Commons (based on the English locals, Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament and AV referendum) is:

Conservatives 315 seats (+6)
Labour 290 seats (+33)
Northern Ireland Parties 18 seats (unchanged)
Scottish National Party 12 seats (+6)
Liberal Democrats 11 seats (-46)
Plaid Cymru 3 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 1 seat (unchanged)
Conservatives short by 11
Conservative + Liberal Democrats + Democratic Unionists = 315 + 11 + 9 = 335