France 2012: the official thread

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The FN is trolling my inbox now because I'm registered to vote. Getting constant emails from Nico and Fredo Lefebvre was apparently not good enough.

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If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

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What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).

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Ifop published a study on Melenchon's electorate:

Average: 13%

Males: 15% vs. Females: 12%
18-24: 16% (up 10)
25-34: 12% (up 6)
35-49: 14% (up 6)
50-64: 17% (up 7)
65+: 9% (up 1)
Public employees: 17% (up 7)
Private employees: 14% (up 6)
Employers, independent workers: 10% (up 6)

Insee socio-demographic category (expanded)

Artisans, commerçants, agriculteurs, chefs d'entreprise: 10% (+5)
Professions libérales et assimilés: 11% (+6)
Cadres d'entreprise (administratifs et commerciaux, ingénieurs et cadres techniques): 9% (+4)
Cadres de la fonction publique (professions scientifiques, professions de l'information, des arts et spectacles, enseignants, …): 17% (+9)
Professions intermédiaires de la fonction publique et assimilés, de la santé et du travail social: 19% (+5)
Professions administratives et commerciales des entreprises, techniciens, contremaîtres et agents de maîtrise: 15% (+4)
Employés civils et agents de service de la fonction publique, policiers et militaires: 12% (+5)
Employés administratifs d'entreprise, employés de commerce: 15% (+10)
Personnels des services directs aux particuliers (assistantes maternelles, concierges, aides à domicile, coiffeurs, …): 8% (+1)
Ouvriers qualifiés: 15% (+6)
Ouvriers non qualifiés: 20% (+10)

2007 vote:

Besancenot: 63% (+25)
Buffet: 76% (+2)
Bove/Voynet: 26% (+8)
Crazy Lady: 15% (+8)
Bayrou: 11% (+6)
JMLP: 3% (+2)
Nico: 2% (+1)

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@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

He isn't. Cevipof-Ifop's recent study on public employees and their voting patterns revealed cops/military to be the only right-leaning group. For example, they estimated their 2007 vote as being 54% right, 24% EXD and 18% leftie. They estimated their voting intentions as MLP 37%, Sarko 27%, Bayrou 11%, abstention 10%, left 11% (back when Sarkozy was polling much lower).

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A map of who signed for who (also includes the party affiliation of the elected official who signed)...

http://owni.fr/2012/04/01/app-quel-candidat-votre-elu-a-t-il-parraine/

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In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

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In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

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So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.

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She needs to know that Melenchon probably hates everybody who doesn't lick his feet, so he'd probably slap her for being a "petty bourgeois" or something.

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Chirac probably voted for Royal in 2007, and if he didn't it's only because she was a mentally unstable psycho. He might have voted Bayrou, but he hates him too.

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Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

On a side note, I got sent the ballots and campaign lit for all candidates by the embassy.

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I might as well lock this thread until Sunday. The last two days are stupid days, and this thread is a sh**tfes and has turned from bad to horrible.

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So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

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I voted for Eva Joly, and I'm happy with that. My mom for Sarko, my dad for Marion.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

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I think Cheminade will win easily, given that the aliens will rig the polls.

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The NPA was supposed to be a temporary name, but the members opted to keep it when they could have adopted a final name. It is a terrible tinpot name, but it fits with the clientele.

There was a brief period before Melenchon and the FG became a serious credible actor, between late 2008 and early 2009, where the NPA was doing really well in the polls (8-9% iirc) and Besancenot was riding really high. Then he took a huge dumping, which was partly of his own making.

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As per usual, a results thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152487.0

I'll temporarily lock this thread tomorrow.

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This thread will now be locked, as per custom and all.

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This thread is now unlocked. Discussion of raw results, maps and other interesting stuff still goes in the results thread.

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Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

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From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

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Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

As for the Sarkobump, I'll panic when he consistently hits 49 or 49.5. In the meantime, as a political cartographer who likes colourful maps, I will be pleased by anything which narrows the margin somewhat to make my maps more interesting.

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Sarko winning probably requires something along the lines of 80-90% support from Panzergirl voters or something like 65-75% from Panzergirl and 60-65% from the Bearnese Twat. In other words, about as likely as Stephen Harper being a Liberal MP tomorrow.

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I watched most of the debate (except the part on fiscal stuff and budgets I had to tend to an urgent matter), and I found both pretty awful, perhaps with Poison Dwarf being the least terrible. He'd make a good case and make me like him, then he'd remind me why I hated him. Flanby would make a good case and I'd feel happy in going to vote for him, then he reminded me why I didn't like him.

Both clearly hated each other, and both went to ridiculous lows and grasped at straws to make their hatred clear. Both were aggressive, but I found Flanby to be way more aggressive. And while both acted like Fabius le roquet in that epic debate, Flanby's knack for interrupting Sarko each time Sarko said some moronic thing was annoying and, imo, reflected poorly on him. On the issues - if such things actually matter - I think they each won on what they're strongest though Sarko's diatribe on immigration/foreigners voting was weak (perhaps because what he said was disgusting) and Flanby's position on nuclear energy was weak.

Overall, both were awful as the plague. In conclusion, a plague on both their houses. I don't know what's keeping me from spoiling my ballot if it seems Hollande will win easily.