2014 state legislature (general) elections

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Kentucky House is 54-46 D. There's probably too many Republican weaknesses to flip it (Ben Waide's scandal, Joe Fischer's extremism, McConnell's weak numbers, etc.).

Also, this is the first election under the redistricted maps, which favored urban areas.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Kentucky GOP is very, very dangerous, especially since there's no executive check on legislative power.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

http://wvpublic.org/post/delegate-switches-parties-run-state-senate

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What a disgrace.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Do you like the WV democratic party Bandit?

Not particularly, but I like the Republican Party much less.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

Kentucky House:  51R - 49D.

And you base this on...?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R

Lord help America.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

The governorship is almost useless in Kentucky anyway. The legislature can override a veto with a simple majority.

On the other hand, I see less support for the GOP on the ground than I have at any time I can remember. I just talked to some folks on Friday who said they're voting straight ticket Democratic. This is a county that was McConnell +25 in 2008, but now I see Grimes signs all over the place, and only one McConnell sign. Grimes has huge turnout for her rallies all over the state, while McConnell has to pay people just to get one-tenth the turnout.

For what it's worth, the state rep for my district is a Democrat running unopposed but has had some real challengers before. Our state senator is a Republican who is retiring, but the very Republican local newspaper just endorsed a Democrat for this seat. The county was Romney +23 in 2012 and Bush +34 in 1988.

How can a Republican electoral trend square with less actual GOP support among the general public? This isn't just Kentucky but other states too (even big ones).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, the Campbell County Democratic Party has 808 fans on Facebook. The Campbell County Republican Party has only 149. Both these Facebook pages have been around for a while.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's called selection bias, Bandit.

The amount of campaign signs I'm seeing or the number of Facebook fans each party's page has isn't selection bias. I had to travel through the north end of Fort Thomas just over a week ago, an area Romney won with over 70%. There were Grimes signs everywhere.

There's a small business nearby that has a prominent Grimes sign with Grimes's picture on it. That's not selection bias. That's the business I see each day, whether I "select" it or not.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Republicans are strongest in parts of northern and western Kentucky, and other rural areas. But they already have most of the seats there.

I think the GOP already has every seat in Kenton and Boone counties - except the seat in Covington, where the Democrat is unopposed.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

Also, Campbell County is much more Republican than the state average - except at the presidential level, but this isn't a presidential year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The GOP may actually be ruined at the county level this time, but I don't know, since there's no polls. One of their candidates for Campbell County Commissioner is a Tea Party member who filed a frivolous lawsuit to try to shut down the public library, of all things.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Starting with the special election to replace Rep Natcher, around 1994, western KY began to flip to the Republicans and the trend continues.  Except for Louisville, Lexington and Covington, the state has become by-in-large a Republican bastion.

I'd say Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort are the Democratic giants today. Boone County is the Republican giant.

Covington, Newport, Bellevue, and Dayton are all heavily Democratic, but the corrupt Republican suburban machine usually outvotes them in those counties.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Post state legislative election results here. 

Democrats hold Kentucky House - probably 53-47.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

Daily Kos.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Thanks.

It appears that the West Virginia Senate is now tied. 

That is sad.

West Virginia is the first state to defeat its own purpose for existing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Lexington Herald-Leader reports Kentucky will be 54-46 D after all - slightly better than the 53-47 that was reported earlier. In other words, no net loss.

The "right-to-work" bull was toxic for the GOP's Kentucky House candidates.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Didn't the seats in the Colorado Senate that the NRA had the do-over flip back to the Democrats?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If the West Virginia GOP pursues "right-to-work", how much will it harm their future prospects in that state?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If the West Virginia GOP pursues "right-to-work", how much will it harm their future prospects in that state?

Judging from the results in Michigan and Wisconsin, it would actually help them. Unions are dead.

It hurt them in the Kentucky House. "Right-to-work" was about all they talked about, and look what it did for them.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

About 37% of union members voted R. So the unions clearly aren't making their case strongly enough to their own members.

And the other 63% are like me and didn't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If it's any indication that eastern Kentucky isn't really trending GOP, a Republican incumbent there lost.

Also, I'm pretty sure that the Elliott County Judge-Executive (the county's top public official) had recently switched from Republican to Democratic. I'm not 100% sure of this though.