Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Brittain33]

Right, this indicates an enthusiasm gap.

However, if all it means is that people who would ordinarily vote on Election Day are voting early, it doesn't indicate a change in the actual results beyond what we're already seeing in the polls. I'd presume that the enthusiasm gap is already showing up in the polls. We simply must be very careful about extrapolating results from early voting.

[Lunar]

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/14/early_voting_in_cobb_none_who.html?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider

Early voting in Cobb: Not a single black voter abandoned the long line
Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 02:38 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just cast an early vote in Cobb County. Only took one hour, forty-five minutes — exactly three weeks before Election Day.

A long line folded itself three times in a relatively hot October sun, shortly before lunch-time. Perhaps a dozen people couldn’t stick it out — they left before getting to the front of the line.

Every one of those who gave up the effort was white. Once in, not a single African-American walked away while I was there. If voter fatigue becomes a factor over the next three weeks, and on Election Day itself, one has to wonder if Republicans are more likely to lose out than Democrats.

Statistically speaking, my vote is sure to have helped push early voting in Georgia over the 500,000 mark today — halfway to Secretary of State Karen Handel’s goal of 1 million.

As of close of business Monday, 499,582 ballots had been cast. And Cobb County has been averaging 1,400 early votes a day.

The racial percentage has dropped slightly, but not significantly. African-Americans, numbering 184,453, have cast 37 percent of all early votes in Georgia. At 11 a.m. in Marietta, at least half the line was made up of black voters. Possibly more.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/10/14/early_voting_in_cobb_none_who.html?cxntfid=blogs_political_insider

Early voting in Cobb: Not a single black voter abandoned the long line
Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 02:38 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just cast an early vote in Cobb County. Only took one hour, forty-five minutes — exactly three weeks before Election Day.

A long line folded itself three times in a relatively hot October sun, shortly before lunch-time. Perhaps a dozen people couldn’t stick it out — they left before getting to the front of the line.

Every one of those who gave up the effort was white. Once in, not a single African-American walked away while I was there. If voter fatigue becomes a factor over the next three weeks, and on Election Day itself, one has to wonder if Republicans are more likely to lose out than Democrats.

Statistically speaking, my vote is sure to have helped push early voting in Georgia over the 500,000 mark today — halfway to Secretary of State Karen Handel’s goal of 1 million.

As of close of business Monday, 499,582 ballots had been cast. And Cobb County has been averaging 1,400 early votes a day.

The racial percentage has dropped slightly, but not significantly. African-Americans, numbering 184,453, have cast 37 percent of all early votes in Georgia. At 11 a.m. in Marietta, at least half the line was made up of black voters. Possibly more.

This post is particularly amusing.  I like it.

Still, this post also shows the reason why blacks were such good slaves.

[Lief 🗽]

Still, this post also shows the reason why blacks were such good slaves.

...

[Lunar]

Sam's offensive comment besides, some news out of Virginia via FirstRead:

Virginia now has more than five million registered voters, a new record, as the deadline for registration for the fall election closed on Oct. 6th, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

The total number of registered voters in Virginia is now 5,021,933.

Since January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an "onslaught" of new voters in the last week of registration.

Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters.

Among the biggest gainers were cities:
-- Williamsburg: Nearly 20% increase
-- Richmond: More than a 17% increase
-- Arlington County: More than a 14% increase
-- Hampton city: 15.4% increase
-- Charlottesville: 14.6% increase
-- Fairfax County: 9% increase, but that means 61,000 new voters
-- Fairfax City: 7%

[Meeker]

Sam's offensive comment besides, some news out of Virginia via FirstRead:

Virginia now has more than five million registered voters, a new record, as the deadline for registration for the fall election closed on Oct. 6th, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

The total number of registered voters in Virginia is now 5,021,933.

Since January, Virginia, a swing state this cycle, has experienced a net gain of 436,000 new voters, including what they call an "onslaught" of new voters in the last week of registration.

Nearly 40 percent of the newly registered voters across the state are under the age of 25. Trends show that, regardless of age, females represent the majority of new registered voters.

Among the biggest gainers were cities:
-- Williamsburg: Nearly 20% increase
-- Richmond: More than a 17% increase
-- Arlington County: More than a 14% increase
-- Hampton city: 15.4% increase
-- Charlottesville: 14.6% increase
-- Fairfax County: 9% increase, but that means 61,000 new voters
-- Fairfax City: 7%

I'm drooling

[ChrisFromNJ]

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/3759120

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[Dan the Roman]

I tried posting this in its own thread but limited interest. You can get the latest on the Georgia early voting numbers on the SOS site.

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

Right now we're up to 635,000, about 36% Black.

 Number of ballots cast: 635,798

Number of ballots voted in person: 549,310
Number of mail-in ballots returned: 86,488

Turn out Demographics:

Black Female
   142,406

Black Male
    85,779

White Female
   211,340

White Male
   173,234

Asia-PI Female
   1,342

Asia-PI Male
   1,025

Hisp-Lt Female
   1,769

Hisp-Lt Male
   1,396

Native AM Female
   39

Native AM Male
   50

Other
   17,418

Total
   635,798

Top 5 Counties in turn out:
1.    Dekalb:    63,788
2.    Fulton:    45,681
3.    Gwinnett:    34,920
4.    Cobb:              34,638
5.    Chatham:    19,275

[Tender Branson]

NC: 1st early voting day sets mark; black turnout strong

Thursday's first day of early voting drew record numbers across North Carolina, election officials said, as more than 100,000 people turned out.

That exceeded the 2004 figure by about 40 percent, said Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

“We blew it away,” Bartlett said Friday, encouraging other voters to take advantage of the early voting period before it ends on Nov. 1. “If not, it will be a long day on Election Day.”

Mecklenburg County also set records, with an updated count showing more than 10,000 voting on the first day, and an additional 7,000 on Friday. Michael Dickerson, the county's elections director, suspects Friday's totals might have been higher if not for the rain.

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.

African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday's early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Experts estimate that Barack Obama needs a black turnout in North Carolina of between 22 percent to 23 percent to carry the state. No Democratic presidential candidate has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/408/story/261771.html

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's no shocker than blacks are turning out at a high rate for early voting.

[Meeker]

Don't know if this has been posted or not: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[Tender Branson]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

[Sensei]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

How much of a good thing is that for Obama?

[Tender Branson]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

How much of a good thing is that for Obama?

It only shows that enthusiasm is high among African-Americans, because they vote early in high numbers. But we don't know if their share in early voting matches the share on Election Day. Probably not ...

[Alcon]

It's also a massive fall from the first day's numbers.  I really think this is all of a part of regression toward the mean, but it was a bigger drop than I would have expected.

[Torie]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

For purposes of comparison, in 2004, the exit poll said 26% of the voters in NC were black.

[Sam Spade]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

For purposes of comparison, in 2004, the exit poll said 26% of the voters in NC were black.

Which was undoubtedly incorrect.  NC placed black turnout at 18.5% in 2004.  Blacks were roughly about 20.25% of RV in 2004.  They are now a little over 21%.

[Alcon]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

For purposes of comparison, in 2004, the exit poll said 26% of the voters in NC were black.

It was 19%.  North Carolina keeps turnout statistics by race, which tells us that the exit poll was really, really wrong.

Edit: Dammit Sam.

[Torie]

Gosh, here I am being jumped on by two heavy weights at once! I'm hurting! 

[Sam Spade]

Although it's not much help in telling us *who voted*, Tennessee has a page that breaks down early voters by county...

http://www.tennessee.gov/sos/election/Early%20Voting%20Nov%202008.pdf

[TheresNoMoney]

Does Missouri have early voting? I haven't heard anything about it either way.

[Tender Branson]

Does Missouri have early voting? I haven't heard anything about it either way.

"In Missouri, absentee voting began on Sept. 23 and continues until 5 p.m. the day before the Nov. 4 general election.

State law requires that absentee voters expect to be out of town on election day. Exceptions for religion and other reasons are also made."

[Tender Branson]

Interesting maps of early & absentee voting rules and dates:

Today, early voting starts in AK, ND, CO, TX, ID, AR and FL.





http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/initiatives_detail.aspx?initiativeID=34044

[Lief 🗽]

Er... Ohio definitely has in-person early voting, contrary to what the map says. I spent 3 days there last weekend canvassing, and we were pushing early voting hard.

[exopolitician]

Er... Ohio definitely has in-person early voting, contrary to what the map says. I spent 3 days there last weekend canvassing, and we were pushing early voting hard.

I thought Virginia had early voting too.