Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Brittain33]

The Obama campaign is really big on early voting (or at least they were during the Texas primary). Then again, Obama won among early voters in Texas, and a lot of good that did him in the end.

yeah, but Texas was demographically very difficult for him, and he came very close to winning. Without the early voting effort he would likely have lost by even more.

I think this is where the difference between the general election and primary elections comes into play. Early voting helps candidates bank their strong voters' votes. In a primary, where election day turnout is lighter, that helps. In a general election, it doesn't hurt, but it doesn't move the needle as much. Of course it's helpful if the McCain campaign doesn't have a least a passable early voting campaign to match it...

[Brittain33]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/obama-dominating-among-early-voters-in.html

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Looks like trouble for McCain- the momentum is really with Obama right now.

That's not something you can conclude from those numbers. All it means is that Obama supporters are more enthusiastic and the campaign is organized in a way to encourage early voting, which are two things we already know.

[Brittain33]

Right, this indicates an enthusiasm gap.

However, if all it means is that people who would ordinarily vote on Election Day are voting early, it doesn't indicate a change in the actual results beyond what we're already seeing in the polls. I'd presume that the enthusiasm gap is already showing up in the polls. We simply must be very careful about extrapolating results from early voting.

[Brittain33]

As of 8:30 this morning, 930,516 has cast their ballot in NC. That is 69,484 shy of 1 million.

3.5 million total votes cast in 2004, for comparison, when the state was both less populous and not seriously contested.