NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179792 times)
Dan the Roman
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« Reply #475 on: March 31, 2009, 08:47:02 PM »
Interestingly the most recent batch of votes in Saratoga actually went to Murphy by about 200. Unfortunately, the county site doesn't give breakdowns.
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Alcon
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« Reply #476 on: March 31, 2009, 08:47:12 PM »
Tedisco 56,079 (50.5%)
Murphy 55,039 (49.4%)
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cinyc
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« Reply #477 on: March 31, 2009, 08:47:52 PM »
Updated Dutchess link:
All in
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Alcon
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« Reply #478 on: March 31, 2009, 08:48:45 PM »
Murphy is running out of counties where he's leading.

Tedisco 59,252 (50.5%)
Murphy 58,133 (49.5%)
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #479 on: March 31, 2009, 08:49:46 PM »
Well, it's looking like my pessimism was on target. Sad
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #480 on: March 31, 2009, 08:50:08 PM »

I'm one of those Murphy votes... sigh.
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Alcon
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« Reply #481 on: March 31, 2009, 08:50:34 PM »
Tedisco 61,858 (50.5%)
Murphy 60,663 (49.5%)
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War on Want
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« Reply #482 on: March 31, 2009, 08:50:45 PM »
I expected Tedisco to win but this is still disappointing.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #483 on: March 31, 2009, 08:51:07 PM »
Quote from: Senator Lief on March 31, 2009, 08:49:46 PM
Well, it's looking like my pessimism was on target. Sad

Well, even if he loses it isn't going to be by the margin you predicted. Wink
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cinyc
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« Reply #484 on: March 31, 2009, 08:51:14 PM »
County   Murphy   Tedesco   SE D%   2006 Change
Columbia   2544   1981   56.22%   2.10%
Delaware   1864   2091   47.13%   -1.06%
Dutchess   9569   8988   51.57%   3.58%
Essex   630   593   51.51%   2.03%
Greene   3826   4834   44.18%   3.72%
Ostego   931   999   48.24%   4.32%
Rensselaer   7576   8035   48.53%   4.83%
Saratoga   17742   21438   45.28%   7.32%
Warren   8680   6890   55.75%   -1.92%
Washington   6831   5338   56.13%   -2.98%
            
Total   60193   61187   49.59%   3.51%


Tedesco 61187 (50.41%)
Murphy 60193 (49.59%)
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The Mikado
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« Reply #485 on: March 31, 2009, 08:51:56 PM »
It looks like the all-knowing Sam Spade pretty much nailed this one.  Congrats, Sam.
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cinyc
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« Reply #486 on: March 31, 2009, 08:52:14 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 08:48:45 PM
Murphy is running out of counties where he's leading.

Tedisco 59,252 (50.5%)
Murphy 58,133 (49.5%)

Well, there's still Columbia.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #487 on: March 31, 2009, 08:54:10 PM »
I'm not all-seeing, I can just do math...  Tongue

Besides, I'm not right yet - I'm starting to prefer a call in-between 500 and 1,000 votes now.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #488 on: March 31, 2009, 08:54:23 PM »
Why did anyone even listen to those who said it was a good idea to appoint Hillary as Secretary of State?
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Alcon
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« Reply #489 on: March 31, 2009, 08:55:49 PM »
« Edited: March 31, 2009, 08:58:22 PM by Alcon »
Reporting seems to have grinded to a hault, which means here on out, it's mostly precincts were the ballot reconciliation did not match.  And Columbia, which obviously is being slow.  It will be a long night, and longer than just night, but it's hard to see Murphy pulling it off.  I like 1,000 or so.

Edit: Spoke too soon.

Tedisco 64,143 (50.4%)
Murphy 63,063 (49.6%)

Edit: And again, Saratoga.

Tedisco 67,755 (50.6%)
Murphy 66,428 (49.4%)
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #490 on: March 31, 2009, 08:57:48 PM »
Given the outstanding precincts I tend to think it is Tedisco, but likely in 400-700 range. Colombia could bring in 1200 or so for Murphy, and Tedisco has stopped gaining much in Saratoga, and will probably max out at another 600 or so votes there. Everything else will probably favor him by a 100 or so.
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Meeker
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« Reply #491 on: March 31, 2009, 08:58:09 PM »
Most of the numbers came in really fast when you stop and think about it. Polls closed less than an hour ago.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #492 on: March 31, 2009, 08:58:09 PM »
I demand a recount.
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cinyc
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« Reply #493 on: March 31, 2009, 08:58:16 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 08:55:49 PM
Reporting seems to have grinded to a hault, which means here on out, it's mostly precincts were the ballot reconciliation did not match.  And Columbia, which obviously is being slow.  It will be a long night, and longer than just night, but it's hard to see Murphy pulling it off.  I like 1,000 or so.

What's out is Columbia (D-leaning), Delaware (R-leaning), Essex (D-Leaning, but small), and Saratoga (swing; currently R-leaning, but if what's out is from Saratoga Springs, we may be in for a surprise).
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #494 on: March 31, 2009, 08:58:46 PM »
Is there any chance of a recount with the results being this close?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #495 on: March 31, 2009, 08:59:15 PM »
Quote from: Dan the Roman on March 31, 2009, 08:57:48 PM
Given the outstanding precincts I tend to think it is Tedisco, but likely in 400-700 range. Colombia could bring in 1200 or so for Murphy, and Tedisco has stopped gaining much in Saratoga, and will probably max out at another 600 or so votes there. Everything else will probably favor him by a 100 or so.

I have everything but Columbia (38 precincts), half of Delaware (24 precincts), and Saratoga (43 precincts)
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #496 on: March 31, 2009, 09:00:51 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 08:59:15 PM
Quote from: Dan the Roman on March 31, 2009, 08:57:48 PM
Given the outstanding precincts I tend to think it is Tedisco, but likely in 400-700 range. Colombia could bring in 1200 or so for Murphy, and Tedisco has stopped gaining much in Saratoga, and will probably max out at another 600 or so votes there. Everything else will probably favor him by a 100 or so.

I have everything but Columbia (38 precincts), half of Delaware (24 precincts), and Saratoga (43 precincts)

Saratoga is now at 170 with a 4400 vote Tedisco lead. Not great, but likely sufficient.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« Reply #497 on: March 31, 2009, 09:01:28 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 08:59:15 PM
Quote from: Dan the Roman on March 31, 2009, 08:57:48 PM
Given the outstanding precincts I tend to think it is Tedisco, but likely in 400-700 range. Colombia could bring in 1200 or so for Murphy, and Tedisco has stopped gaining much in Saratoga, and will probably max out at another 600 or so votes there. Everything else will probably favor him by a 100 or so.

I have everything but Columbia (38 precincts), half of Delaware (24 precincts), and Saratoga (43 precincts)

Should add...

Tedisco 63,923
Murphy 62,811

Turnout should be about 135K or so.  Not too bad, although this is a high turnout area (especially for NY)
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cinyc
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« Reply #498 on: March 31, 2009, 09:01:47 PM »
My updated count, with more of Saratoga in:

Tedesco 67,755 (50.56%)
Murphy 66,248 (49.44%)
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Lunar
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« Reply #499 on: March 31, 2009, 09:02:01 PM »
also, there are 5k absentee ballots to be counted too,
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