NY-20 Special Election

[Franzl]

I hope he has to publicly apologize.

[Franzl]

He was basically saying that there are more important things to worry about than Rush Limbaugh.

And he was right.

Unfortunately though, he felt the need to apologize for telling the truth.

[Franzl]

Not sure if that was a good idea

[Franzl]

Of course, if the deadline for military absentees is extended, we likely won't know who wins for at least a week or two.

depends how close the election is.

BTW, are they talking about extending the absentee deadline or pushing back the entire election?

[Franzl]

excellent, although the Libertarian won't be on the ballot...not sure why they polled his support.

[Franzl]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

[Franzl]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

Bad macro conditions turn otherwise acceptable candidates into bad ones. Tedisco isn't setting the world on fire, but in a different environment, Murphy wouldn't be doing so well and Tedisco would be taken more seriously.

Oh I don't think Tedisco is that terrible, but for some personal reason....I dislike him quite strongly.

[Franzl]

by the way:

WASHINGTON (CNN) – One day after the Justice Department filed suit against the state of New York over the counting of military absentee ballots in next week's special election, it announced an agreement with state officials that would extend the deadline for those voters to mid-April.

The department's lawsuit against the state and Gov. David Paterson, filed in federal district court yesterday, charged that nine of the 10 counties in New York's 20th congressional district had not given military voters enough time to fill out their ballots and return them before the deadline. The original deadline — seven days after the election — will be extended by another six days if the agreement is approved in federal court.

The new deadline of April 13 would bring the state into compliance with federal law that requires each military voter be given at least 30 days to fill out their ballot.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/03/26/doj-reaches-agreement-with-ny-over-military-ballots/

[Franzl]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

yep...that's right.

Although it means we'll have even longer to wait if it is extremely close

[Franzl]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?

Almost certainly in favor....but I'm not sure.

[Franzl]

So is it pretty much a pure tossup now?

toss-up/slightly lean DEM, I'd say.

[Franzl]

I agree with Rowan's prediction.

[Franzl]

what would you say the current probability is for Tedisco to win, Lunar?

[Franzl]

Isn't that one of J.J.'s rules, Rowan?

[Franzl]

Is the Times Union usually liberal? Or is this actually surprising?

[Franzl]

Tedisco is really tanking on Intrade. He's down to 35.0 at the moment. Any particular reason?

[Franzl]

GOP lowers expectations on NY-20 race

With momentum shifting to Democrat Scott Murphy in today’s special election in upstate New York, House Republican leaders are pre-empting any blame that might come their way should Republican Jim Tedisco lose.

In a Tuesday morning news conference, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said the outcome of the election shouldn’t be seen as a referendum on the GOP leadership in Congress.

“It’s between those two candidates in New York,” Boehner explained to reporters. “I hope Jim Tedisco wins.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20706.html

[Franzl]

any turnout reports or something interesting?

[Franzl]

any idea if "light turnout" tells us anything?

[Franzl]

Count two more votes for Murphy... me and my pops just voted. The turnout was bigger than I was expecting at least.

where do you live? Is that a strong Democratic area?

[Franzl]

How did a creature as pathetic as Tedisco get as far as he did in politics I wonder?  Is the area a black hole for political talent or something?

Does that mean you're supporting Murphy, Torie?

[Franzl]

Is this a joke?

And if not, what does it mean?

[Franzl]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

[Franzl]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

That's up for his lawyers to decide after the fact.

Well yeah....but everybody knows it won't do him any good above an extremely small margin, right?

Why would he want to make a fool of himself?

[Franzl]

Does it even make sense to challenge an election before a recount is requested and performed?