FL-JMC: Trump +5 (user search)
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  FL-JMC: Trump +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-JMC: Trump +5  (Read 3447 times)
Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: July 12, 2016, 04:48:02 AM »

This also has Obama at 40-53 approval despite him being on positive ground nationally. JUNK POLL!

I can see this poll is way off the average, but can you explain why that makes it junk? It's just an honest question. I'm new to this forum and most of the times a poll is good for Trump I read: 'junk'. Is the sample too small? Were mistakes made in the methodology? I see 538 has these pollsters rated quit low.
Could Obama's favorables in Florida be lower than the national average?

Florida is pretty close to the national average so if Obama has positive national approval Florida should be positive or close to tied. -13 is pretty off and indicates the poll isn't representative of a Florida electorate.

Being off the average doesn't necessarily make a poll bad but you can look at the past record (not great in this case) and whether the results make internal sense (this is trickier because subgroups have huge MoE).
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