Survey USA Polls: OR, WA, SC, TX

[lonestar]

Oregon:
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 47%


Washington:
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 46%

South Carolina:
Bush: 58%
Kerry: 38%

The Great State of Texas:
Bush: 58%
Kerry: 37%

[agcatter]

These are all dead on with what I would have thought.

So much for the Edwards factor in SC.

[CARLHAYDEN]

There are posters on this board who simply cannot comprehend that the northwest isn't as liberal as they thought.

Remember, this is a SUSA poll, and they have a record of slightly favoring the Democrats.

[struct310]

Come on Washington, you can make it into the fold as well...

[Sam Spade]

The scary thing in both OR and WA for Kerry is that he is losing 30% of black voters in OR and 40% in WA.

Those are very bad trends.

[A18]

Woah... Bush has 40% of the black vote in Washington?! Or are they going with Nader?

[Sam Spade]

Nope.

[A18]

So what do you mean he's losing 40% of them?

[Rococo4]

The scary thing in both OR and WA for Kerry is that he is losing 30% of black voters in OR and 40% in WA.

Those are very bad trends.

Either, yes, they are horrible trends and Kerry will lose like Dukakis or worse (Mondale) or this poll has 0 credibility.  I say somewhere in between.

For the record, I think Oregon goes Bush, Washington goes Kerry.  Bush did very well in OR last time, nearly winning.  With their mail voting, who knows what will happen.

[The Vorlon]

The polls out of Oregon are highly erratic

[A18]

Alright, let me rephrase. Does this poll show Bush with 30% of the black vote in Oregon?

Or do I not understand?

[Sam Spade]

I'll clarify my comments of earlier, because they weren't clear.  :-)

Bush is winning 30% of the black vote in OR and 40% in Washington.  hehe

[bgwah]

The NW isn't economically liberal (I've come to the conclusion the NW HATES taxes. It takes FOREVER for Seattle to build any mass transit or anything like that. Oregon voted or 80% no on state-wide universal healthcare). It is socially liberal though. It has the lowest church attendance in the country (WA is 49 and OR is 50). Northwesterners are turned off by ultra-religious Christian fundamentalists like Bush. Republican ads are very negative this year too. The Republicans ran a bunch of ads attacking Deborah Senn and then tried to hide where they got all their money from. Now Nethercutt is accusing Patty Murray of killing hospital patients or something, its hard to tell what hes ranting about. And in Seattle some Republican protestor (this is Seattle so Republicans are a small minority) kicked some guys car and dented it and smashed his windows when the guy in the car said he disagreed with him. I don't think Nader is on the ballot in Oregona gain and even if he is/was he won't be getting 5 percent again. The Seattle Times which endorsed Bush last time now has endorsed Kerry. The environmentalists (quite a few here) will be out against Bush. Most new voters are going for Kerry. I have only come across ONE person who will be voting for Bush this time but didn't last time (they voted for the Constitution Party last time). I've come across about 10 now Kerry-supporters (or in one case wasting vote on Nader) who used to be Bush supporters. Democrat-voting Hispanics are on the rise as well.

I live in the ultra-white suburbia of Seattle too. The Republicans first lost South King County. Now they've lost the Eastside (rich part) too.

Bush will need at least 45 states to include WA and OR in his win column.

Off topic-sort of: May I please have the source of how blacks in the NW vote? They make up a VERY small percent of the population but it would still be interesting. I think its nice that black people don't vote 90% for one party. It would be good to live in a place that doesn't take race so seriously and doesn't have a party by race thing going like Mississippi. Asians only make up 6% of our population yet we have an Asian governor. How many blacks does VA have, Asians in HI, and hispanics and NM? Much more than 6%, I already know that.

[A18]

Just when I thought the Democrats had successfully convinced African Americans that they were the only party that wasn't racist...

[khirkhib]

Good post Jesus.  I agree with you 100%.
I was in Spokane a couple weeks ago and there were a lot of Kerry signs there too.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Just thought I'd post some additional information in re Oregon.

In addition to the Marriage measure on the ballot (36) there is a medical malpractice measure (35).

The trial lawyers have pushed the medical providers against the wall, and now they are fighting back.

Needless to say, Bush favors the gist of the proposal, while Kerry opposes it.

Guess who will have more influence with the voters, their medical providers or a bunch of shysters?

[Lunar]

But to Kerry's advantage in Oregon is the fact that Nader's off the ballot.  Nader's machine was fairly strong in Oregon in 2000 and an extra percent or two in favor of Kerry will likely make all the difference in Oregon should the election be close.

[J. J.]

Kerry is up by 8 in OR:
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4375

As for the Black vote OR, I conducted my own poll. It's 50% each,.  She's for Kerry and he's for Bush.  :-)   Seriously, OR has a 3% Black population.