Baby Bust: US births continue their decline

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I can imagine the US TFR going down to 1.6, a lot of states are already at 1.5 and Hispanic fertility will likely continue to converge with white and black fertility. On current trends the US will slip into natural decline by around 2030, the same time China does. Hopefully we stop seeing the so called experts talk about how America has a demographic advantage compared to other countries when it clearly doesn't, America's fertility rate is now below many European nation's such as France or Denmark.

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Taking a longer term view, the US has fallen from around 4% of global births in the 1950's to 3% by 2000 to around 2.6% today. It's share of global population has come down from around 6% in 1950-1960 to 4.3% today and will continue to decline. The US  over the coming decades will increasingly resemble much of the rest of the developed world, low fertility, an ageing and old population and a shrinking one.

In terms of what impact migration can have on fertility, one issue is the main source of migrants for America today is Asia and Asian American fertility looks like it fell to around 1.5 last year, when most migrants were from Central & South america they raised overall fertility, today migrants from Asia lower overall fertility, migration will not solve the issue of declining fertility, it may exacerbate it.

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Births didn't rise from 1980's to 2007 due to Gen X, they rose due to Hispanic migration combined with high Hispanic fertility. The Hispanic TFR of 2.8 in the 2000's is what kept births at a high level, with the Hispanic TFR falling to 2.0, births have fallen as well.

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Q1 data is out for US, the number of births per 1000 among women aged 15-44 dropped from 57.2 in Q1 2018 to 55.6, falling by 3% in Q1 2019 which is a new record low for the US. If fertility were to drop by 3% for the rest of the year, US fertility in 2019 would go down to 1.68 from 1.73 in 2018, first time it would have fallen below 1.7

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm#

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Raw birth data for Q1 2019 out, births were down 2.3% from 915,000 to 894,000. The fall accelerated as months went on in Q1, in January births were down 1.6% year on year, in February they fell 1.8% and in March births were down 3.5%. If a 2.3% fall occurs for the whole year births will fall to 3.701 million this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

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https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf

2018 final data out, births down 1.7% to 3,791k.

Overall TFR down to 1.73 from 1.77

Non-Hispanic White TFR down to 1.64 from 1.67

Black TFR down to 1.79 from 1.82

Hispanic TFR down to 1.96 from 2.0

Asian TFR down to 1.53 from 1.6