The British Conservative Party

[migrendel]

I'm not going to say the Tories are dying. Many people predicted just that about Labour, and they came back. It just takes a change in the political atmosphere. That's not to say that the elderly demographics and reliance on pensioners is not a legitimate cause of concern, though.

I predict Labour will hold its majority, though it will be reduced somewhat. I predict some Labour marginals will fall to the Tories, and I anticipate a 15 seat gain for the Liberal Democrats. The Liberals will make inroads in urban areas, and the Tories will pick up a snatch of close seats around the country. I also think Letwin, and perhaps Davis, will fall victim to Liberal gains.

I'd like to also make my formal endorsement. I support the Liberal Democratic Party in this election. They are now the only real option for a left-winger, since Labour has turned to such unconscienable policies as top-up fees, anti-social behavior regulations, and the Iraq war. To me, these are quite the opposite of leftism. I certainly cannot agree with the Tories on a plethora of issues from hunting to human rights, and the Liberals have pursued some attractive policies, like income tax increases, though the Orange Book concerns me.

I would really like a party that is more left-wing on both social and economic issues, a coalescence of Tony Benn and Jenny Tonge. If someone like Clare Short was picked to lead the party, I would enthusiastically endorse it, but the party of Blair, Michael Martin, and Kate Hoey is not for me, nor ever will be.

[minionofmidas]

The Tories rightward swing has made them un-electable in the eyes of most people in the U.K, and their voters are getting older every year (the average age of a Tory member is over 65... and it's almost that grim with their voters. Not as extreme a pattern as the CDU in Germany though...).

I don't know who told you the myth that the CDU is dying out (I suspect Lewis Trondheim ), but I can assure you it is not true.

You suspect correctly...the CDU is not dieing out, o/c - it's still much stronger than the Tories, across the board. But it's heavily skewed towards the generation now 60-80, and actually has been throughout BRD history (in the fifties, the CDU was the young voter's party). The CDU's youth problem, thus is an "everyone but the aged" problem, and its distributed very unevenly across the nation. It's worst in the cities (which is of course precisely where the Green votes are). Here's the Frankfurt European Elections result by age group.
18-24 Greens 30.6 CDU 23.9 SPD 23.3
25-34 Greens 32.3 CDU 25.1 SPD 19.0
35-44 Greens 39.8 CDU 21.1 SPD 19.8
45-59 Greens 30.8 CDU 29.2 SPD 20.5
60+    CDU 54.1 SPD 23.8 Greens 7.2

Greens gained 16 points in the 45-59 age bracket by the way - the last batch of "pre-68ers" turned 60 between 99 and 04...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Last night the Tories came fourth (FOURTH??!?!!?!) in the Hartlepool by-election... they couldn't even crack 10% of the vote.

Hartlepool (like most ports) used to have a large working class Tory vote (The Hartlepools (as it was then) M.P from 1959 to 1964 was a Tory, and they've come a strong second in most general elections since then).

[minionofmidas]

State Election Bavaria 2003 (My favourite one )

CSU          59/58/61/66
SPD          13/16/19/24
Greens     12/12/8/3

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That election had some funny sides...my favorite bit was the poll (a week before the election)saying two-thirds of Bavarians hoped the CSU would not get a two-thirds majority in parliament, which it looked headed for at the time and did, indeed, get. Yet, it only got one-third of the registered vote (as turnout was abysmal) - so two thirds of Bavarians did indeed not want them to get a two-thirds majority!? (In truth, of course, many non-voters said they didn't care less and many CSU supporters said they didn't really want it to go over two-thirds).

[CO-OWL]

That election had some funny sides...my favorite bit was the poll (a week before the election)saying two-thirds of Bavarians hoped the CSU would not get a two-thirds majority in parliament, which it looked headed for at the time and did, indeed, get. Yet, it only got one-third of the registered vote (as turnout was abysmal) - so two thirds of Bavarians did indeed not want them to get a two-thirds majority!? (In truth, of course, many non-voters said they didn't care less and many CSU supporters said they didn't really want it to go over two-thirds).

I remember that poll, too. It made me think FDP and Freie Wähler would do much better, but they didn't even break 4%.

Turnout was indeed very low with an expected safe CSU victory and discontent with the SPD at its peak. They even finished third in some districts behind the Greens or the FW.
CSU just got the 30% of the population who would vote for it under (almost) any circumstances and some additional votes.

[CO-OWL]

the CDU is not dieing out, o/c - it's still much stronger than the Tories, across the board. But it's heavily skewed towards the generation now 60-80, and actually has been throughout BRD history

Well, given the demographic change in Germany if the CDU could maintain their strong showing among the 60+, electoral success would be a sure thing...

But with the "68ers" and post generations getting older I guess there will be some changes in the voting behaviour of the 60+.
The Greens are likely to make the biggest gains.

[cwelsch]

I hope the UK does get rid of the New Deal.  We're still stuck with ours.

[struct310]

Is the UKIP socially conservative on issues like abortion and the like? If so, Im rooting for them.  The Tories seem very close to the Democratic party here and Labor to the green and LibDem to libertarian.  Republicans need a match party in Britain.

Also in Germany: Go CDU!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is the UKIP socially conservative on issues like abortion and the like? If so, Im rooting for them. 

I've no idea. There are a lot of pro-life Labour M.P's though

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[Peter]

Is the UKIP socially conservative on issues like abortion and the like?

According to the UKIP website, UKIP favour freedom of choice and letting the people decide; They offer no specific position on abortion.

[Silent Hunter]

It's also not very clear on non-EU foreign policy, but they apparently opposed the war in Iraq.

[WMS]

Is the UKIP socially conservative on issues like abortion and the like? If so, Im rooting for them.

I've no idea. There are a lot of pro-life Labour M.P's though

Like the U.S. Democrats used to be before the bloody social liberals hijacked the party in the 1960's...

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[/quote]

I think he's adding social issues to the mix, although I would say that parts of Labour, from what you've indicated, Al, match the econ left social right category...but I admit I'm not sure how the socially liberal U.K. handles these issues, if at all.

Why, all of you Europeans are so leftist that Ralph Nader would have to run as a conservative over there...[/English bait]

[Donovan]

Is the UKIP socially conservative on issues like abortion and the like? If so, Im rooting for them.

I've no idea. There are a lot of pro-life Labour M.P's though

British translation of Parties=

Tories = Republicans

Labour Party = Democrats

Democratic Party = No US translation

[dubhdara]

The LibDems are certainly not comparable to the libertarians except perhaps on the more "libertine" matters.

UKIP is probably the nearest to the old Republican platform in terms of political and economic policies; which itself is probably nearest to the libertarian postition today.

Dubhdara (and Englishman who is certainly not "leftist"   - though left and right are pretty meaningless terms anyway).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he's adding social issues to the mix, although I would say that parts of Labour, from what you've indicated, Al, match the econ left social right category...but I admit I'm not sure how the socially liberal U.K. handles these issues, if at all.

Very few people in the U.K vote on social/wedge issues (the main voting indicator is Class)... certain unscrupulous candidates have played the race card (infamously in Smethwick, 1964: "If you want a n*gger neighbour, vote Liberal or Labour") and recently homophobia (not gay marriage. The fact that candidate x is gay) has been used (unsuccessfully) against Labour candidates in Exeter and also in the Rhondda (the euphamism used was "exotic candidate"... the "exotic candidate" went on to win with 67% of the vote).
Abortion has never been a major issue, because it was legalised to stop backstreet abortions (which had reached disturbing levels in inner cities) and not as a "right".
One ever-present wedge issue is crime, with the Tories and LibDems taking predictable stances (ie: Traditionalist and Libertarian) while Labour has something of a "militant communitarian" viewpoint which was noticable in the recent Hartlepool By-election especially over it's pet project "ASBO's" (Anti Social Behavior Orders).

[minionofmidas]

Homophobia:
Also back in the early '80s when Simon Hughes first won.
Pictures of Labour candidate and Elizabeth II.
Slogan, "Which Queen would you vote for?" THis thing was distributed anonymously but *probably* came from the local Tories.

[Silent Hunter]

Howard and Menzies Campbell (Deputy Lib Dem leader) both opposed the minimum wage to begin with, but now support it.

[WMS]

I think he's adding social issues to the mix, although I would say that parts of Labour, from what you've indicated, Al, match the econ left social right category...but I admit I'm not sure how the socially liberal U.K. handles these issues, if at all.

Very few people in the U.K vote on social/wedge issues (the main voting indicator is Class)... certain unscrupulous candidates have played the race card (infamously in Smethwick, 1964: "If you want a n*gger neighbour, vote Liberal or Labour") and recently homophobia (not gay marriage. The fact that candidate x is gay) has been used (unsuccessfully) against Labour candidates in Exeter and also in the Rhondda (the euphamism used was "exotic candidate"... the "exotic candidate" went on to win with 67% of the vote).
Abortion has never been a major issue, because it was legalised to stop backstreet abortions (which had reached disturbing levels in inner cities) and not as a "right".
One ever-present wedge issue is crime, with the Tories and LibDems taking predictable stances (ie: Traditionalist and Libertarian) while Labour has something of a "militant communitarian" viewpoint which was noticable in the recent Hartlepool By-election especially over it's pet project "ASBO's" (Anti Social Behavior Orders).

Very interesting...would you agree that in the U.S., we vote more on social/wedge issues and less on Class than in the U.K.? You certainly get some...interesting groups voting together here!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very interesting...would you agree that in the U.S., we vote more on social/wedge issues and less on Class than in the U.K.? You certainly get some...interesting groups voting together here!

Pretty much every countries politics is less class-orientated than ours

[WMS]

Very interesting...would you agree that in the U.S., we vote more on social/wedge issues and less on Class than in the U.K.? You certainly get some...interesting groups voting together here!

Pretty much every countries politics is less class-orientated than ours

Ouch! You gotta get some wedge issues going on so you can have the same enjoyable bitter debates the rest of us do!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very interesting...would you agree that in the U.S., we vote more on social/wedge issues and less on Class than in the U.K.? You certainly get some...interesting groups voting together here!

Pretty much every countries politics is less class-orientated than ours

Ouch! You gotta get some wedge issues going on so you can have the same enjoyable bitter debates the rest of us do!

There are wedge issues, but they tend to be local

[WMS]

Very interesting...would you agree that in the U.S., we vote more on social/wedge issues and less on Class than in the U.K.? You certainly get some...interesting groups voting together here!

Pretty much every countries politics is less class-orientated than ours

Ouch! You gotta get some wedge issues going on so you can have the same enjoyable bitter debates the rest of us do!

There are wedge issues, but they tend to be local

Yes, we in the Albuquerque, New Mexico area have more than our share of those this election...heck, I'll be following those more closely than the Presidential race! (Otherwise known as: 'We're Screwed No Matter Who Wins') I'm awaiting action by King Bill Governor Richardson on one of them to make any predictions on how those wedge issues might affect either the Presidential race or NM-1...but that's for another thread.

It's fun to have all you posters from the U.K., as I've gotten an interesting look at things there.

[cwelsch]

How do Muslims vote in English/UK politics?  I'd have assumed Labor.

[Silent Hunter]

They did at the last general. Right now, they're tending LD or Respect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They did at the last general. Right now, they're tending LD or Respect.

It's a bit more complicated than that... Muslims tend to vote how their community leaders tell them to vote (a sweeping, and often unfair, generalisation).
Example:

In Bethnal Green & Bow, the Labour candidate in 1997 (she's now the M.P) was/is half Jewish, so the local Muslim leaders (mostly Bangladeshi, BTW) instructed their followers to vote Tory (which they did).