2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[houseonaboat]

Murphy has the county line for virtually every major county in North, Central and South Jersey. He got the Southern lines last week and will have a Norcross endorsement soon enough, and has had support in Bergen, Essex, and other key counties for a while now. Barring a miracle or major screw-up he will win the Democratic nomination, and likely the governorship.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy got the endorsement of a few more little-known politicians today: Cory Booker and Bob Menendez.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy will win this in a landslide, IMO

The only thing that could change that is a Sanders endorsement for Wisniewski.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

[houseonaboat]

I'll also add that Ciatterelli is a very, very good candidate, and NJ Republicans would be foolish to offer him as a sacrificial lamb. He could compete for Leonard Lance's seat and probably win

[houseonaboat]

Murphy will win. All of the state establishment wants Murphy, and Wisniewski likely doesn't have the firepower to make a good insurgent run; it doesn't even look like Wisniewski will win the endorsement of the Middlesex party (his home county). Progressives' best chance here would be to get a Rush Holt type endorsed by Sanders, and take advantage of Murphy's current anonymity.

Yeah New Jersey is a *very* establishment state. I'd argue it's a model for other state Democratic Parties, though that's up for debate, but virtually every township in the state has a local Democratic council, who're engaged with the county council, who are in turn engaged with statewide Dems, so winning the county line can bank you a lot of votes. That doesn't even begin to explain Norcross influence on South Jersey, Baraka influence in Newark, and Fulop/Menendez influence in Hudson County. Murphy has almost every important county line and Wisniewski is hated by state Dems because he was seen as a bad chair for the party, so Murphy probably has this locked up.

That is not true at all. A huge number of townships (and boroughs, towns, etc.) have Republican councils in NJ. One town direct north of mine is a bedroom community of New York, and has never elected a Democratic council member since the 1890s!

Also, at least half a dozens counties have all-GOP or mostly-GOP county councils (known as freeholders in NJ), such as Morris, Burlington, Warren, Salem, etc. So the Democrats by no means have a monopoly on local elections throughout the state.

That came out wrong, I don't mean the City Council is Democratic. I mean there's a chapter of the Democratic Party specifically for that town. So Town X, NJ has a "Town Democratic Committee" which engages which the county party, which in turn engages with the state party, so winning the county line is huge because a lot of those local Democrats are engaged with primary voters throughout the year.

[houseonaboat]

I think this race is gonna heat up quite a bit, fwiw. Wouldn't discount the possibility of a Sanders endorsement at all.

[houseonaboat]

I don't know why Lesniak is running at all. Him and Wisniewski are gonna split the progressive vote, and Jim Johnson (assuming he gets on the ballot) is going to eat up a few more anti-Murphy/anti-establishment votes. At that point Murphy could win with just 40% of the vote (which is, again, a very generous estimate given that Murphy has the ballot lines for most counties).

[houseonaboat]

This really speaks to how pathetic the Democratic performance downballot was during the Obama era, but it's likely that New Jersey will become the second largest state under total Democratic control. National progressives could be missing out on a good opportunity here if they're not going to even try in the primary.

Extremely skeptical on Murphy but he's received a lot of endorsements from progressive organizations and unions, including the CWA (which was the largest union to endorse Sanders in the primary).

[houseonaboat]

A few things:

1. Bernie declines to endorse Wisniewski (for now), cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

[houseonaboat]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

I'd prefer Lesniak but dude's 70 unfortunately.

[houseonaboat]

Fairleigh Dickinson poll

Among Democrats:

Murphy - 17%
Lesniak - 7% (!)
Wisniewski - 6%
Jim Johnson - 2%
Other - 17%
Undecided - 50%

Among Republicans:

Guadagno - 18%
Piscopo - 11%
Someone else - 13%
Rogers - 2%
Ciattarelli - 2%
Undecided - 52%

Quick thoughts:

1. That Lesniak number is brutal if you're Wiz. a.) You're coming in third in a two-way primary and b.) Lesniak + Wiz combined still significantly trails Murphy.

2. These numbers are pretty good, but not outstanding, for Murphy. I haven't checked the methodology of the poll yet but if FDU just polled registered Dems (vs likely primary voters) than that 50% number won't budge until like May. Murphy's clearing the field relative to his next closest competitors which is good.

3. Jim Johnson, doing surprisingly well, all things considered.

4. That Ciattarelli number... man. He's probably the best candidate Rs have against Murphy as well.

5. That Piscopo number isn't that unsurprising given, again, that most of these candidates are unknown to a majority of voters.

6. No poll really matters if Murphy has the line in every county (which he does). That's gonna be the biggest barrier for Wiz and Lesniak to overcome more than anything else.

[houseonaboat]

Interesting update (I told y'all that this race would get interesting!): Wisniewski won the endorsement of the Princeton Democratic Committee in a public election with something like 60% of the vote in the second round. This isn't that surprising, given that Princeton is one of the progressive bastions of the state (this was Rush Holt's district), but this was also the first forum to feature all four candidates (Murphy, Lesniak, Wisniewski, and Jim Johnson) and Wiz won the vote among Princeton Democratic members by a comfortable margin. It'll make a few headlines Monday and Tuesday I'm sure.

FWIW I think Lesniak is gonna drop out at some point -- he finished dead last in the first round at the Princeton convention. Jim Johnson was a thoroughly unspectacular candidate and even with mics was basically speaking at a whisper to the audience. I'll also add that I've finally been to a town hall with each candidate except for Johnson, and Murphy was (to me) by far the most impressive, and I think that was the general consensus in the room I was in as well. So it's not like Murphy's a dead man walking. He's probably the best retail politician in the race, and is running in a very pro-Clinton state, and has deep-rooted pockets of support both in the well-to-do parts of New Jersey as well in urban areas.

tl;dr: Murphy's race to lose. Wiz catching up.

[houseonaboat]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

[houseonaboat]

Something interesting is that Wisniewski still hasn't qualified for public financing. A candidate needs to raise (and pledge to spend) $430,000 in the primary to get 2-for-1 matching in the state, and Wisniewski's last fundraising report (in late January) had him only at $230,000. A Politico article yesterday indicated that he still wasn't there, which is extraordinary in itself as Jim Johnson (who has zero chance of winning) has already crossed that mark, if only barely so.

Murphy, even without his $10 million loan, has raised $1.3 million just for the primary, and has $11.3 million and change in his primary campaign war chest.

The initial excitement has dissipated. He's a dead candidate walking right now.

Personally I still think Wiz could get into a stronger position in the next two months than you might think. Murphy has already started attacking Wiz in rather shady ways on guns, environmental issues etc. I think it's very possible that national progressive groups start to mobilize in the last few weeks to "BEAT GOLDMAN SACHS AND THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!" and turn the primary (briefly) into a national thing.

Of course I could be wrong and Murphy will just sail through with 70% +, but I am still skeptical a large majority of Democratic primary voters are going to turn out for a Goldman Sachs guy in 2017.

Hasn't Murphy taken some pretty progressive stances that defang a lot of the left-wing complaints about him, though?

I mean, there are anecdotal reports that Bernie supporters are splitting 50-50 between Wiz and Murphy. Wisniewski has Bernie's ex-campaign manager's endorsement, but Murphy has Bernie's son's endorsement. I dunno, I feel like the Bernie people should be rallying around wisniewski but maybe they're more concerned about getting a Dem trifecta in NJ or they're just not passionate about non-Bernie politicians.

More significant than Bernie's son's endorsement is the fact that the CWA endorsed Phil, and the CWA was the largest union in the country to endorse Bernie. They've actually pushed back pretty hard against some NJ Dems as well (including Wisniewski, funnily enough), so to me, that's the bigger sign that Bernie supporters are pretty evenly split between Murphy and Wisniewski.

[houseonaboat]

Murphy won the Working Families Alliance endorsement (like New York's WFP, but not a formal political party).

[houseonaboat]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

He'll likely pick Shavonda Sumter.

Addendum, by the way: Jim Johnson is appearing on Joy Reid's show tomorrow. He's sharing the spotlight with Perriello and Gillum but I think he's pushing to make this primary as national as Perriello's is.

[houseonaboat]

NJ Posters: How would you rate the LD-2 races with the shakeup from Mazzeo's gaffe? Is Chris Brown favored to flip the seat for R's (that'd be a rare bright spot for them in what look to be an otherwise terrible year for them, with them expected to lose Diane Allen's seat, the Governorship/LG, and a few Assembly seats)? I know some people on RRH and DKE think that it's a likely R pickup now, but I'm not so sure. The district has a 10-point D registration advantage, went overwhelmingly for Obama and Clinton, Murphy is likely to romp there, and Dem turnout will probably be higher than normal given the anti-Trump angst. Also, how would you rate Jennifer Beck's race since that's the only other competitive-looking SD?

Also, CD-2 question: When LoBiondo eventually retires/kicks the can, who are the favorites to run to replace him? Jeff Van Drew is getting pretty old, but Bob Andrczejczak is extremely young and has a great bio with strong crossover appeal in his LD. Chris Brown or Don Guardian would seem like the most logical R frontrunners, provided they win this year, which is a big if. How would you rate an open seat race between Andrczejczak vs. Brown?

I think LD-2 is lean R. Colin Bell is a strong candidate and Dems will pour money into the race, but Brown was already swamping Mazzeo in terms of fundraising, and Bell is starting from behind. If Murphy romps there (which he will, he's fairly popular in South Jersey), Bell has a good shot but I would say Lean R.

As for Beck, Monmouth is still a heavily Republican county, she's a formidable senator who can fundraise well, and as talented as Vin Gopal is (and he is, Monmouth Dems have had a lot of wins lately), he has an uphill battle against a popular incumbent in a Republican district. Beck also opposed the gas tax increase. My only hesitation is that Murphy is from Monmouth (though obviously holds no office there), which could translate it into a few more votes, but I doubt it and I'd rate it Lean R.

As for CD-2, I don't follow South Jersey politics outside of ongoings in Norcross world that I hear about, but JVD's was recruited in 2016 and declined. My instinct is that Bob Andrzejczak would be a competitive candidate, but Chris Brown is apparently a really good fundraiser (or as good as you can be as a state assemblyman, at least) and Don Guardian is incredibly popular in Atlantic County. I can't imagine Andrzejczak overcoming either of those challengers unless he's better at raising money than I thought.

[houseonaboat]

The Democratic primary race seems to be heating up. Murphy's apparently paid county chairs up to hundreds of thousands of dollars for endorsements.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/how_much_phil_murphy_donated_to_nj_democrats_in_recent_years.html

This has been known since he jumped into the race -- I doubt that article changes the race meaningfully. The Star Ledger claims to have a major story on Murphy during his time at Goldman though to be published within the coming weeks.

EDIT: misread your comment, there's nothing in there about "buying" endorsements. I was at the Morris County Democratic Convention yesterday, the committee is like 70% geriatrics with too much time on their hands. The idea that he "bought" their votes is absurd.

[houseonaboat]

Ciattarelli could well win win the GOP primary by the way.

I don't know that, it is just a guess, and Guadagno won some super-important county lines in Ocean, Monmouth, Bergen, Cumberland and Atlantic Counties, but Ciattarelli has momentum going into Middlesex, won Essex, Union, Somerset, Burlington and Mercer, and is widely regarded as a far superior candidate to Kim, Guadagno, who is closely tied to Christie and frankly not a very good politician. Ciattarelli is a really good speaker/campaigner, talks a lot about school funding (which is the #1 issue for a lot of New Jersey's suburbia), and is seen as the better candidate against Murphy.

[houseonaboat]

It's a shame Wisniewski's campaign hasn't gotten the attention that Murphy's has, but I'm not even that surprised at this point.

I'll probably wind up holding my nose and voting for Murphy in November.

It's not the media's (or the NJ political establishment's) fault that Wisniewski is running a god-awful campaign. He's being out-fundraised by Jim Johnson, has virtually no field presence, and his campaign manager makes more headlines than the actual candidate.

[houseonaboat]

An interesting article about New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jim Johnson. He could be second place in the June 6 primary. Wisniewski and Lesniak have really underperformed as candidates, but there has not even been a Democratic gubernatorial debate yet. Wisniewski could jump back in attention if he has debate zingers against Murphy and Johnson--but he needs to run TV ads (a must in NJ politics).

Johnson is a Montclair resident--he could do well with the white liberals in that area around Montclair, Bloomfield, Little Falls, Glen Ridge. He could do well in Newark and other majority-black areas, but with Booker and Menendez's support of Murphy, he may not.

http://observer.com/2017/04/can-jim-johnson-beat-njs-democratic-machine/

If Jim Johnson does come in second how likely is it Murphy picks him as Lt. Governor?

zero odds. Outside of the fact that Johnson has criticized Murphy's signature proposal (a public bank) and accused him of violating NJ election law, Murphy strategically and politically needs someone with political experience on the ticket. And, practically speaking, he owes North Jersey (and specifically state Democratic chairman John Currie) a favor for handing him the nomination nine months before the primary, so he'll likely pick Currie ally Shavonda Sumter.

[houseonaboat]

John Wisniewski has an ad out hitting Phil Murphy for his Wall Street ties.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/watch_nj_gov_candidate_wisniewski_jabs_murphy_in_first_tv_ad.html

Doesn't look he's dropping out anytime soon, in which case, even if all the assumptions about NJ politics and the strength of county lines are wrong, Murphy is still a heavy favorite to win because of vote-splitting with Wisniewski and Johnson (Bernie supporters will stay with Wiz, Johnson will pick up a few Bernie voters and Hillary voters uneasy about Murphy, and Lesniak and Brennan will pick up a decent number of votes in their own right).

[houseonaboat]

I've only seen one decent poll of the race (polls likely voters based on vote history) and it has Murphy up 30. Murphy 37, Wisniewski 7, Jonson 4, Lesniak 3 and undecided 49. It was commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters though, who endorsed Murphy.

https://www.insidernj.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/5-17-Mellman-Group-Polling-Memo.pdf

[houseonaboat]

Biden will campaign with Murphy. http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/05/joe_biden_to_campaign_for_phil_murphy_in_nj_govern.html