Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[Alabama_Indy10]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

What??

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

He has a 53% approval rating and incumbency advantage is a thing. He's just as well liked as shelby.

Scott Brown and Mark Pryor had approval ratings above 60%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Trump would have to lose the NPV by about 20% for Doug Jones to win re-election.

In other words, Doug Jones is hopeless.

He has a 53% approval rating and incumbency advantage is a thing. He's just as well liked as shelby.

Scott Brown and Mark Pryor had approval ratings above 60%

Yep, which is why dems need to beat Trump by around ~10% nationally for Jones to win. I definitely don't think dems need to beat TRump by 20% for Jones to make it... Scott Brown only lost by 8 despite Obama winning nationally by 4% and MA by 23%.

[Lamda]

I hope that Martha Roby will be the GOP nominee for Alabama Senate in 2020.
It's a win-win for the Democrats,Jones will face a weak opponent and even if he losses we going to have a moderate Republican(in Alabama standards).

[Yellowhammer]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

2020 Alabama US senate election prediction:

Not Roy Moore (R): 54%

Doug Jones (D): 45%

Other: ~1%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

2020 Alabama US senate election prediction:

Not Roy Moore (R): 54%

Doug Jones (D): 45%

Other: ~1%

I mean, it was both. There was actually a huge surge in Jones's vote among white independents/republicans. He was polling in the mid 40's even before the Roy Moore scandal. Look at how Jones got more votes in places like Shelby county than Hillary, despite much lower turnout.

And it wasn't only republican voters that didn't turn out. Many black voters that voted Hillary did not vote in the 2017 special election. Look at how Jones got way less votes in the black belt than Hillary (20-25% less votes).

A 9% R win is about what I'd expect in an even election, though.

[Skill and Chance]

So, how does Jones win in 2020?

In order of likelihood:

1. Someone like Roby wins the GOP nomination and strong pro-Trump independent/write-in splits the conservative vote, allowing him to win Wilson 1912 style.
2. Economic crisis leads to a 1932 style Trump loss and Dem wave nationwide.
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3. Moore runs and wins the nomination again.

[Canis]

Jones is as popular as shelby I say he as a good chance of winning reelection based off that alone

[Yellowhammer]

Jones is as popular as shelby I say he as a good chance of winning reelection based off that alone

Popularity can only get him so far in an inelastic state like Alabama, where the GOP's floor is sky-high.
This will be like Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2012. A perfect line up of events allowed for a stunning anomaly, but it won't be able to hold in a presidential election year.

[Blair]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

That’s factually wrong. They managed to get African American turnout to an historic high (even more than Obama in 2008)

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

That’s factually wrong. They managed to get African American turnout to an historic high (even more than Obama in 2008)

Was that in percentage or in raw votes because if its in percentage then it is because a significant amount of Republicans stayed home .

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

That’s factually wrong. They managed to get African American turnout to an historic high (even more than Obama in 2008)

That was only relative to the electorate. If republicans turned out, I bet the electorate would have only been 27% black (which, granted, would still mean black people turned out better than white in AL)

[Yellowhammer]

If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, Doug Jones is getting blanched. I'd say he has a 10% chance of re-election, and that's being generous. The reason he won in the first place was because Trump-voting republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for either candidate stayed home en masse, not because of some huge surge in democratic support.
Needles so to say, these voters will not be staying home in 2020.

That’s factually wrong. They managed to get African American turnout to an historic high (even more than Obama in 2008)

I doubt that, as Jones underperformed Obama '08 by about 140,000 votes.

He certainly performed very well for a non-presidential election year, and he won over plenty of white independents and republicans, especially in the Birmingham area. That being said, the vast majority of his voters were still democrats.
There was a moderate bump in democratic support, not a surge. The allegations against Moore were the only reason Jones had a shadow of a chance. That worked like a miracle for the him, turning out the vast majority of the state's democratic base whilst depressing Moore's support. He won because he had an excellent GOTV effort, whereas many republicans didn't vote. Jones would have lost handily had it not been for the allegations, and even more handily had the GOP nominated anyone else.

[Virginiá]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, at least according to the Jones campaign (and the polling doesn't exactly hurt their case either), Moore was just as weak before the allegations, and the fight over the allegations in some cases seemed to help Moore by "tribalizing" Republicans. Besides the polling, this isn't exactly hard to believe. Moore didn't do so well in 2012 either. He is just a weak candidate in general.

[MT Treasurer]

I actually think Jones would have beaten Strange as well, people really forget what an incredibly flawed candidate he was. As regards 2020, Jones either needs a massive Democratic landslide or an Akin-level implosion of Byrne or Brooks or whoever gets the nomination.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think if Luther Strange was the Republican candidate, he would have won 56-43 or something like that.

It would have been closer than usual for Alabama, but Luther Strange still wins comfortably.

[Canis]

I think if Luther Strange was the Republican candidate, he would have won 56-43 or something like that.

It would have been closer than usual for Alabama, but Luther Strange still wins comfortably.

Luther Strange was arguably weaker than Moore not talking about allegations he lost statewide to a democrat in 06 Moore may have only narrowly won in 2012 but Strange actually lost

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Given that jones won 40% of mitch mcconnell approvers, i'm pretty sure strange would have won...

[Skill and Chance]

I actually think Jones would have beaten Strange as well, people really forget what an incredibly flawed candidate he was. As regards 2020, Jones either needs a massive Democratic landslide or an Akin-level implosion of Byrne or Brooks or whoever gets the nomination.

If Jones had beaten Moore by 8-10%, I would believe this.  I would be shocked if Strange couldn't manage to do 2% better than Moore. 

[Alabama_Indy10]

Strange would have beat Jones. Almost certainly

[Pericles]

Yep Strange would have won and probably by double digits.

[Canis]

Why did Strange lose in 2006?

[Yellowhammer]

Why did Strange lose in 2006?

He was running against a former Alabama governor in a dem wave year, and barely lost, and this was back when Alabama was still hospitable to electing dems statewide. A lot has changed here in the last 12 years; most of the old yellow dog democrats have died off.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why did Strange lose in 2006?

He was running against a former Alabama governor in a dem wave year, and barely lost, and this was back when Alabama was still hospitable to electing dems statewide. A lot has changed here in the last 12 years; most of the old yellow dog democrats have died off.

Who is Bradley Manning? I don't think that is a person running for Maryland Senate.

[Canis]

Why did Strange lose in 2006?

He was running against a former Alabama governor in a dem wave year, and barely lost, and this was back when Alabama was still hospitable to electing dems statewide. A lot has changed here in the last 12 years; most of the old yellow dog democrats have died off.

Who is Bradley Manning? I don't think that is a person running for Maryland Senate.

He's deliberately dead naming Chelsea Manning which is quite despicable behavior in my opinion