June 2006:
Again, this is based mostly on my gut feeling, and it has changed a bit since my predictions in March. I still believe that negative ratings for Bush and the Republican Congress will swing several toss-up seats to Democrat, and hold the margin of victory down in a Safe Republican seats. I'm not basing anything on certain polls, but rather on accumulation of polls and other media, and the aforementioned gut feeling.
Maryland: Cardin wins the open seat versus Steele, 56%-43%.
Pennsylvania: While not the blow-out that it might have been, Casey still defeats Santorum, 54%-45%.
Montana: Tester burns Burns, 54%-44%.
Rhode Island: After a close primary win over Laffey, Chafee loses to Whitehouse, 53%-46%.
Minnesota: Klobuchar takes the open seat over Kennedy, 52%-46%.
Missouri: McCaskill beats Talent, 52%-47%.
New Jersey: Menendez wins over Kean, 51%-48%.
Ohio: Brown edges out DeWine, 51%-49%
Other interesting races:
Arizona: Kyl 54%, Pederson 44%
Washington: Cantwell 55%, McGavick 43%.
Tennessee: Corker 57%, Ford 42%.
Virginia: Allen 58%, Webb 42%.
Nebraska: Nelson 59%, Ricketts 41%.
Michigan: Stabenow 59%, Bouchard 40%.
Nevada: Ensign 60%, Carter 40%. (I move it to safe republican, now that Goodman is not in the running.)
Florida: Nelson 64%, Harris 30%. (Only included because it was supposed to be interesting, and is embarrasingly not.)
Connecticut: Assuming Lieberman survives his primary challenge from Lamont, Lieberman 75%, Schlesinger 20%. If Lamont is the Democratic nominee, and Lieberman runs as independent: Lieberman 53%, Lamont 35%, Schlesinger 10%; but then who does Joe caucus with?
Right now, I go with Lieberman winning the primary and general.
R 50
D 49
I 1