Minutes to Midnight

[Edgeofnight]

November 7th, 2018

DEMOCRATS RETAKE POWER IN REBUKE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP

President "unphased" by Midterm losses as Democrats pickup three Senate seats.

Incoming Freshmen:
Kirsten Sinema (D-AZ)
Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
Phil Bredesen (D-TN)
Mitt Romney (R-UT)

This is the start of a mini-timeline I have planned. I am not abandoning my other timeline, I just have a bit of writers block with it, and I am hoping this will help that somewhat.

[Edgeofnight]

I was too consumed by the fantastic infoboxes.

Thanks!

Romney's a dem?

Fixed, Thank you!

[Edgeofnight]

November 15th, 2018

Trump vows to fire Mueller if probe does not conclude before March, blames Mueller for Republican losses.

In a move drawing sharp rebuke from Outgoing Speaker Paul Ryan, incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and a large number of members from both parties, Trump has placed a deadline on the Mueller probe. Trump has often publicly and privately flirted with firing Special Counsel Mueller, and despite having said he is open to sitting down with Mueller, has yet to do so.


November 22nd, 2018

Deval Patrick Declares Presidential Bid, becomes second major Democrat to enter the race..

The former Massachusetts Governor and Obama Ally has declared his entrance into the Democratic Primaries, becoming the second major Democrat to do so. Hypothetical polling shows him with roughly 5% support among voters.


November 25th, 2018

Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz enters presidential race as a Democrat, swears off PAC money.

Having left the world of big business, Former Starbucks chairman and CEO has declared he will run for president as a Democrat. Schultz has styled himself as a liberal executive, who has frequently appeared on cable news to criticize the president. His substantial personal wealth will likely aid him in his bid for President.


December 12th, 2018

NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio will run for President, formal announcement planned for January.

The liberal mayor of New York City has been outed as preparing a presidential bid after a fundraising email “leaked” to reporters. The Mayor of America’s Largest city has confirmed that the “leaks” are legitimate, and confirmed that a formal announcement will come in January as the new congress takes office.


December 18th, 2018

Steve Bullock: “I’m running.”

The term limited governor of the Deep-red Montana has confirmed rumors that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President. A liberal elected in a red state, Bullock has emphasised the need for “persuasion” in his early campaign literature, and will make “listening and engaging” his core focus on the campaign trail.

December 20th, 2018

John Kasich won’t challenge Trump in Republican Primaries, leaves door open to third party bid if Trump is renominated.

The outgoing Ohio Governor has been one of Trump's more prominent Republican critics, attacking the president over a wide variety of issues. He has long been rumored to be a potential challenger to Trump within the Republican party. Absent Kasich, the so called "Never Trump Republicans will likely have to find someone else to challenge Trump in the primaries.

[Edgeofnight]

Is the title a reference to the doomsday clock? If so, uh oh.

Maybe...

[Edgeofnight]

Interesting timeline so far.

Hopefully, more interesting candidates will jump in the run for the democratic nomination.

Well its not even 2019 yet, so there is deff gonna be more candidates.

Really digging this!

Glad to hear it!

[Edgeofnight]

January 3rd, 2019

New Congress Takes office, set to check the Trump White House.

Despite murmurs otherwise, Nancy Pelosi has taken office as the New Speaker of the House, and Chuck Schumer has become the Senate Majority Leader, with Democrats now holding both chambers in the first time since 2010.

January 19th, 2019

Joe Biden will run for President

In an early and massive shake up, the former Vice President has declared his intention to seek the Democratic nomination for the third time in his life. Obama’s number 2, Biden is both well known and well liked among most Democrats. Biden is currently the weak front runner, polling anywhere between 20% and 40%.

January 20th, 2019

Trump: “Biden is a creep”

In one of his usual twitter tirades, President Trump unloaded at Joe Biden, calling him a creep and a weakling. The Trump White House officially released a statement, expressing confidence that Trump would defeat any democrat nominated in 2020.

February 11th, 2019

Julian Castro declares bid for President, becoming third “Obama Democrat” to enter the race.

The former HUD secretary became the 7th major Democrat to enter the race for president in 2020. The fmr. Mayor of San Antonio and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development has the markings a strong candidate. Ties to the Obama administration, and a young, charismatic hispanic, Castro’s main weakness is a lack of name recognition.

February 20th, 2019

Marco Rubio won’t challenge Trump, leaves door open to endorsing challenger.

The sometimes ally, sometimes critic of the President, Florida Senator Marco has ruled out challenging Trump in the Republican primaries. In a blow to the sitting president, Rubio has left the door open to endorsing a primary challenger to Trump.

February 22nd, 2019

Martin O’Malley to run for President Again.

Claiming to have learned from his prior mistakes, Martin O’Malley has declared that he will run for President in 2020. O’Malley’s 2016 campaign was drowned out by the much more imposing candidacies of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. However, O’Malley has spent much of the past 2 years building up his national profile in preparation for this second run for president.

March 1st, 2019

Eric Garcetti announces run for President.

The Mayor of Los Angeles has declared that he will run for president in the upcoming election, confirming the rumors after over a year of speculation. Garcetti claims that he will bring “big city ideas” to the White House, and states that the Mayoralty is where all the real governing happens.

[Edgeofnight]

How'd the Governor and statehouse races go?

Gubernatorial Map.

Nevada and Rhode Island are considered upset victories for the Republicans, while Democrats generally won in every battleground state except those two and Alaska.  As for the State Houses, Democrats gain an outright majority in AK's House, AZ's senate, CO's Senate, CT's Senate, both houses of the ME legislature, the MN Senate, the PA House, and the FL House by varying margins. Democrats generally gained seats in every legislative chamber.

[Edgeofnight]

We took the FL House?! That's really impressive! I'd've thought the Senate would flip first.

Also, this TL is great. Who's the governor of Florida?

It was supposed to be the FL Senate, not the FL House. That was my mistake.

Anyway, to your second question.

[Edgeofnight]

Was Abrams able to win on Election Night?  If so, what was the margin?

She wins outright on Election night, taking 50.3% of the vote to Kemp's 48.9%

[Edgeofnight]

March 8th, 2019

Jeff Flake announces bid for Republican nomination.

The former Arizona Senator has made the announcement that many in his party where waiting for. The frequent Trump critic has announced that he will run in a longshot bid to “reclaim the heart of the Republican party from Trump and Trumpism.” Senator Flake has also acknowledged that his bid is a longshot, but states that a victory is possible as long as “enough people believe in America.”

March 16th, 2019

Fmr. Governor Terry McAuliffe is all in on 2020.

The Former Virginia Governor and Clinton Ally has declared that he will run for President in 2020. Although he has deep pockets, and is well connected the the party’s donors, McAuliffe suffers from low name recognition, and his Clinton Connections may end up hurting him more than helping him.

March 23rd, 2019

Democratic Congress passes legislation meant to protect Special Counsel Mueller, setting the stage for a legal battle with President Trump.

President Trump has refused to sign the legislation, calling it “unconstitutional.”  The President also dodged questions of his intentions to fire Mueller at the end of the month.

March 30th, 2019

Senator Kamala Harris declares Presidential bid.

The California Senator joins a number of her colleagues in entering the race for President in the next cycle. The Freshman Senator from California has generated a good deal of excitement, and has more name recognition than most of her current competitors.

April 2nd, 2019

Buttigieg says “No thanks” to Presidential Bid as Democrats encourage him to run for Governor.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg of “Nowhere U.S.A”, properly known as South Bend, Indiana, has ruled out the possibility of a presidential bid today, amidst rising pressure from local and national Democratic operatives aimed at pushing him into the Governor’s race. Buttigieg is also exploring the possibility of a bid for the Republican Held Second Congressional Seat.
 
April 8th, 2019

Trump Fires Rosenstein, Solicitor General ends Mueller probe.

Making good on his promise, albeit a bitter later than expected, President Trump has dismissed attorney General Rod Rosenstein after he refused to end the Mueller probe. Trump instructed the third ranked Department of Justice official, Solicitor General Noel Francisco, to end the Mueller probe, which Francisco has done.

Republican Presidential Primaries, 2020 polling:

Q1: Do You Approve of Donald Trump's Actions as President?:
Yes -- 73%
No -- 16%
Unsure -- 11%

Q2: Is Donald Trump's conduct in office a serious problem for you?:
No -- 64%
Yes -- 24%
Unsure -- 12%

Q3: If the primary for your state was held today, who would you vote for? (Nationwide):
Donald Trump -- 75%
Jeff Flake -- 17%
Others/Unsure -- 8%

Q3.1: If the primary for your state was held today, who would you vote for? (Iowa):
Donald Trump -- 80%
Jeff Flake -- 14%
Others/Unsure -- 6%

Q3.2: If the primary for your state was held today, who would you vote for? (New Hampshire):
Donald Trump -- 67%
Jeff Flake -- 26%
Others/Unsure -- 7%

The "2013-2018" part of Jeff Flake's years in office is a mistake, and where it is so minor I don't think I will correct it after the fact.

[Edgeofnight]

Oh no, this is going to get nasty.

Its just getting started

[Edgeofnight]

April 9th, 2019

Schumer and Pelosi take on Trump and Francisco as calls for impeachment grow.

In the aftermath of Mueller and Rosenstein’s dismissal, Congressional Leadership has locked its horns with the President, calling on him and the Justice Department to restore the Special Counsel. Meanwhile, some House Democrats are preparing to play the impeachment card, a move Pelosi and Schumer have been hesitant to endorse, even as public support for impeachment grows.

April 11th, 2019

Flake’s campaign picks up steam, endorsements, and money after Mueller dismissal.

The former Arizona Senator’s insurgent Campaign has gained more attention in the wake of Trump’s firing. Senator Flake has gained the endorsement of numerous prominent republicans, including Conservative icon Bill Kristol (who has signed on as a formal advisor to the campaign), Fmr. Governor John Kasich, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, Senators Ben Sasse, John McCain, and Lindsey Graham. Flake has even gained the support of one-time Trump ally, fmr. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. All this brings with it a surge of fundraising for Senator Flake, who has doubled his Cash on Hand in recent weeks. 

April 15th, 2019

Cory Booker to run for President.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker confirmed one of the worst held secrets in Washington today: He will run for President in 2020. The young, charismatic New Jersey Senator characterizes himself as the “perfect foil” for President Trump, and has drawn numerous comparisons to fmr. President Obama.

April 23rd, 2019

John Hickenlooper is running for President.

In a rather unsurprising announcement, fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper has confirmed that he will make the plunge and run for the Democratic nomination. The Fmr. Governor of Colorado left office with high approval ratings, although he isn’t well known outside of Colorado, and his characterization as a “moderate” democrat could hurt him among the base of the party.

April 30th, 2019

Elizabeth Warren for President, launches fundraising blitz.

The Massachusetts Senator has declared today that she will run for President, opening her campaign with a massive fundraising blitz. She is considered a top tier candidate for the nomination, and is well liked among party progressives. Frontrunner Joe Biden welcomed Warren to the race, calling her “a good friend and better Senator,” further saying that she will raise the level of debate in the primary.

May 1st, 2019

House opens their own investigations in wake of Mueller firings.

In Response to President Trump’s Justice Department pruge, House Democrats on the Oversight and Intelligence committees have opened their own investigation, continuing where the Mueller probe left off. The Senate is expected to follow suit.

May 3rd, 2019

Sherrod Brown makes surprise announcement: He’s Running.

The Ohio Senator has repeatedly shut down speculation in the past, but today he walks back those statements, and enters the Presidential Race today. Long considered a strong progressive Senator, Brown’s candidacy excites many within the party, but his lack of name recognition holds him back nationwide.

May 10th, 2019

Andrew Cuomo announces Presidential Bid.

The three term New York Governor announced his presidential bid today. Despite being governor of the Fourth-largest state, and one of the largest Democratic Strongholds in the Nation, Cuomo is considered a dark horse candidate. He suffers from low name recognition, corruption allegations, a lack of charisma, and is general disliked by progressives in the party.

May 15th, 2019

Cummings Subpoenas Trump.

Chair of the House Oversight Committee, Elijah Cummings (D-MD) has subpoenaed the President, calling him to testify in relation to the infamous Trump Tower meeting between his eldest son and a Russian Operative. Trump has not publicly responded, but his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani has stated that they are exploring alternative options.


2020 Republican Primary Polling (Nationwide):
Donald Trump -- 70%
Jeff Flake -- 20%
Unsure/Other -- 10%

2020 Presidential Election Polling:
Generic Democrat -- 56%
Donald Trump -- 35%
Other/Unsure -- 9%

[Edgeofnight]

June 12th, 2019

Gillibrand Declares Presidential bid, third New Yorker in the race.

In a shot at both the current front runners, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar has entered the Democratic primaries, referring to herself as a consensus builder and unifying figure. Klobuchar is very popular in her home state, but suffers nationwide from a lack of name recognition.

August 1st, 2019

Trump and House reach agreement, President will Testify in front of House in September.

After much speculation, President Trump has agreed to testify before the House Oversight Committee in late September, a massive victory for congressional Democrats. The President stated that he will use the chance to show how much of a witch hunt “this whole Russia affair” really is.

August 15th, 2019.

Congressman Tim Ryan will retire to run for President in 2020.

The Ohio Congressman has confirmed months of speculation by announcing his bid for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. The Little-known Ohio Congressman earned national attention when he challenged Pelosi for control of the Democratic Caucus in 2016. After passing on a bid for Ohio’s Governor seat, Ryan became the subject of speculation regarding his political future.  He becomes the 20th Major Democrat to enter the race.

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polling (Nationwide):

Joe Biden -- 20%
Bernie Sanders -- 17%
Elizabeth Warren -- 11%
Cory Booker -- 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 5%
Martin O’Malley -- 4%
Kamala Harris --  3%
Julian Castro -- 3%
Sherrod Brown -- 2%
Amy Klobuchar -- 2%
Undecided/Other -- 26%

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polling (Iowa):

Bernie Sanders -- 21%
Joe Biden -- 18%
Elizabeth Warren -- 13%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 8%
Sherrod Brown -- 6%
Kamala Harris -- 5%
Amy Klobuchar -- 3%
Martin O’Malley -- 3%
Julian Castro -- 2%
Cory Booker -- 2%
Undecided/Other -- 19%

2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polling (New Hampshire):

Elizabeth Warren -- 23%
Joe Biden -- 17%
Bernie Sanders -- 17%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 8%
Cory Booker -- 5%
Sherrod Brown -- 3%
Amy Klobuchar -- 2%
Kamala Harris -- 2%
Martin O’Malley -- 2%
Deval Patrick -- 2%
Undecided/Other -- 22%


2020 Republican Presidential Primary Polling (Nationwide):
Donald Trump -- 76%
Jeff Flake -- 11%
Undecided/Other -- 13%

2020 Republican Presidential Primary Polling (Iowa):
Donald Trump -- 77%
Jeff Flake -- 8%
Undecided/Other --15%

2020 Republican Presidential Primary Polling (New Hampshire):
Donald Trump -- 74%
Jeff Flake -- 13%
Undecided/Other -- 13%

[Edgeofnight]

August 19th, 2019

Predictit: Harris still the betting favorite among Democrats.

While it’s not a good indicator of real political standing, Predictit still provides insight into the minds of voters. Right now, Harris remains the betting favorite among Democrats, a title she has held several times before, and has held it since early 2019. Biting at her heels is the former Vice President, Joe Biden, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, the two front runners according to the opinion polling.

August 23rd, 2019

John Kelly to leave the West Wing. Trump picks Christie as his replacement.

The former Homeland Security Secretary will step down as White House Chief of Staff. His replacement, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, has stated that his top priority is “defeating all of the President’s enemies.” Trump was also allegedly considering NSA John Bolton, fmr. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley for the position.

September 1st, 2019

Deval Patrick ends Presidential Campaign: “Now is not my time.” Endorses Warren.

The fmr Massachusetts Governor became the first major Democrat to suspend their presidential campaign in the face of low polling numbers and weak fundraising. He has backed his fellow Bay Stater, Senator Elizabeth Warren.

September 6th, 2019

Evan McMullin endorses Flake, but plans his own presidential bid as well.

Fmr. CIA Agent and founder of Stand Up Republic Evan McMullin gained national notoriety when he ran in the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate. Today, he has endorsed Senator Flake in the Republican primaries, while also announcing that he will run again in the general election if Trump wins. “We are getting things started early this time,” said McMullin.


September 12th, 2019

First Democratic Debates: Biden and Sanders dominate in separate debates, strong showing from Booker and Gillibrand.

The first Democratic Debates took place last night in Detroit Michigan, and while they passed without major incidents, the two debates showcased the dynamic of the primary. The debate was divided in two, with each batch of candidates being randomly selected from the overall pool. In the first debate, it was Joe Biden vs the world, as he faced attacks from Bullock, Hickenlooper, Harris, and Warren. For his credit, the Vice President took the attention in stride. He responded to attacks without attacking any one candidate in particular, a strategy that avoided them the chance to rebut. Howard Schultz, the founder and Fmr. CEO of Starbucks also faced attacks of his business practices and his extensive use of his personal funds to keep himself in the race. In the end, the winner of the first, and more watched Debate, was Joe Biden and Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand highlighted her own record, while also making sure to take jabs at the records of the other candidates. In the Second Debate, Senator Sanders squared off with Senator Cory Booker, and the two quickly became the center of attention. “The rest of the candidates where sort of just there… no one really got any attention but those two,” said one observer. Thus, they obviously emerged the clear leaders of the Debate. The next debate, to be held next month in Columbus, Ohio, will again divide the field in two, this time dividing them by polling position.


2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Polling:

Q1: Which of the candidates in the race do you consider to be the most electable?

Joe Biden -- 28%
Bernie Sanders -- 22%
Cory Booker -- 12%
Kamala Harris -- 11%
Elizabeth Warren -- 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 4%
Amy Klobuchar -- 3%
Sherrod Brown -- 3%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 10%

Q2: Which of the candidates running best represents your values?
Bernie Sanders -- 22%
Joe Biden -- 22%
Elizabeth Warren -- 15%
Kamala Harris -- 11%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 8%
Cory Booker -- 4%
Sherrod Brown -- 4%
Amy Klobuchar -- 3%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 11%

Q3: Which of the candidates running cares the most about your needs?
Bernie Sanders -- 26%
Elizabeth Warren -- 22%
Joe Biden -- 17%
Kamala Harris -- 10%
Cory Booker -- 7%
Sherrod Brown -- 6%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 4%
Amy Klobuchar -- 2%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 6%



2020 Republican Presidential Primary Polling:

Q1: Which of the candidates in the race do you consider to be the most electable?
Donald Trump -- 56%
Jeff Flake -- 31%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 13%

Q2: Which of the candidates running best represents your values?
Donald Trump -- 59%
Jeff Flake -- 33%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 8%

Q3: Which of the candidates running cares the most about your needs?
Donald Trump -- 54%
Jeff Flake -- 35%
Others/Unsure/No Answer -- 8%


As a few notes:
Although I am striving for realism, I don't intend for this to be a prediction of real life.

Aventti 2020 became a thing pretty much right after I started this timeline. I have no plans to include him as a candidate, and for the sake of closing the door on it forever, he endorsed Howard Schultz in this timeline.

I'm going to make a few more of those "people" infoboxes that I made for Gwen Graham. If anyone wants one in particular, let me know, otherwise I'm just going to make the ones I want to make.

[Edgeofnight]

Two more infoboxes I made while working on the next update.

[Edgeofnight]

Jesus I hope the D field isn't this big in real life...

In hindsight, I actually think I missed a few candidates who could end up running. Aventti being the one I've already mentioned, but I could easily see the irl field being bigger than this one.

Watch as Jeff Flake wins it all

Anything is possible. We'll see...

Go Gillibrand!

A bit surprised you aren't supporting Klobuchar. No particular reason why I expected you too, but for some reason she struck me as someone you'd be backing.

Love all the detail, but this whole thing makes me super nervous. Can't wait to see where it goes next.

Glad to hear you are enjoying it. Things are just getting started.

[Edgeofnight]

September 15th, 2019

Trump testifies before House: Watch the President Invoke the Fifth Amendment and Executive Privilege for two hours.

The President testified before the House today, invoking Executive Privilege and the fifth Amendment for most of the questions fielded by Democrats, while answering the “softball” questions thrown at him by Republicans. Republicans have responded to the “hyperpartisan hearings”, calling for Cummings removal as chair.

September 19th, 2019

Howard Schultz plans “coffee shop tour” of America in an attempt to raise polling numbers before second debate.

In an effort to qualify for the “main stage” debate in Columbus, Ohio, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has launched his “coffee shop tour” of America. Schultz is currently battling Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar for eighth place, the cut off place for the main stage debate.

October 1st, 2019

Frontrunners Tour Iowa and New Hampshire while Booker and Harris compete in South Carolina.

Biden, Warren, and Sanders are seeking to establish dominance, over the rest of the field and each other, by winning the critical Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary. Senators Harris and Booker are both hoping to win the South Carolina Primary by a big margin by copying Hillary Clinton’s strategy and replicating her coalition of African American voters.

October 3rd, 2019

Iowa Representatives split on Presidential candidates.

Congresswoman Cindy Axne backs Sherrod Brown, while Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer backs Elizabeth Warren. Dave Loebsack, Iowa’s longest serving Democratic Congressman, has backed Former President Joe Biden. Governor Fred Hubbell has yet to endorse a candidate, but has pledged to support whoever wins the Iowa Caucus.

October 9th, 2019

President meets challenger on Debate Stage in dominating fashion.

Trump overwhelmingly won the First of three debates between himself and Senator Flake, as the former Arizona Senator failed to establish a reason as to why voters should prefer him over the President. The Debate moderators grilled Flake’s voting record in Congress, and kept him on the defensive about how he would be any different from President Trump. From there, the debate shifted to the style of the two candidates, and Flake’s lack of charisma and boring personality failed to grab headlines against Trump’s bombastic style.

October 10th, 2019

Double Whammy: De Blasio and Garcetti withdraw, both back home state Senators.

The Mayors of New York City and Los Angeles have both suspended their presidential campaigns in the last 24 hours. Both candidates alluded to low polling numbers and weak fundraising as the reasons for their withdrawal, and both candidates backed their home state Senators’ campaigns.

October 11th, 2019

Biden and Sanders at each other’s throats in Second Debate. Warren and Gillibrand rise above bickering. Everyone loses the undercard debate

The two front runners ripped into each other in the Second Democratic Debate, attacking each other on Healthcare, electability, and the reasons why the party lost the 2016 election. In general, their constant bickering and attacks at each other turned off many voters. Biden accused Sanders of running a “dishonest campaign” and made the mistake of defending Hillary Clinton, which the other candidates took the chance to tie the fmr. Vice President to the failed candidate. Warren and Gillibrand rose above the noise to present themselves as strong candidates in their own rights. Biden’s defense of Clinton helped shift the Clinton comparisons away from Gillibrand and allowed her to showcase the differences between the two candidates. In the undercard debate, no one really rose above the rest of the candidates. They all blended together, and no one really established themselves.

October 16th, 2019

Tim Ryan withdraws from Presidential Race as money dries up.

The Ohio Congressman has announced his intention to return to the House as he withdraws from the Presidential Election. He has cited fundraising shortcomings as his reason for withdrawal.

October 23rd, 2019

Don Blankenship enters 2020 Constitution Primaries

The infamous Coal Tycoon and Ex-Con has entered the Presidential race, running under the Constitution Party Banner. Blankenship has railed against the Republican party and Mitch McConnell since his defeat in the 2018 Republican Senate Primary in West Virginia. He enters a field of 6 other candidates. In his announcment, Blankenship stated that "Trump betrayed Trump" and that the president has become too entangled in the "swamp" of Washington.

2019 Gubernatorial Ratings: Total Tossup

For the first time in recent years, every Gubernatorial seat up in 2019 is considered a "tossup" between the two parties. In Louisiana, Incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards is facing more difficulty than expected in securing his re-election bid. He faces fellow Democrat Cary Deaton, an attorney, as well as Republicans Congressman Ralph Abraham, State Senator Bret Allain, U.S. Senator John Kennedy, businessman Stephen Waguespack and fmr. Governor Bobby Jindal. Also running is the Serve America Movement Candidate John Georges, a former Democrat. 

In Kentucky, incumbent Matt Bevin is seeking re-election to a second term. His main opponent is Democrat Andy Beshear, the incumbent Attorney General. Also running in the race is Tony Miller, running under the Serve America Movement Banner, with his running mate businessman Luther Deaton. 

In Mississippi, the gubernatorial seat is open. The Republican nominee is Hal Marx, who won the Republican primary in a major upset over Phillip Gun, Tate Reeves, and Bill Waller. The Democratic Nominee is Attorney General Jim Hood, who was opposed in the primary by a variety of no-name candidates. Also running in the race is Jep Barbour as the Serve America Movement candidate.


2019 Polling:
Kentucky Gubernatorial Election:
Matt Bevin* -- 43%
Andy Beshear -- 42%
Tony Miller -- 2%
Undecided/Others -- 13%

Mississippi Gubernatorial Election:
Jim Hood -- 45%
Hal Marx -- 40%
Jep Barbour -- 3%
Undecided/Others -- 12%

Louisiana Gubernatorial Election:
John B. Edwards -- 40%
John N. Kennedy -- 15%
Ralph Abraham -- 8%
Bob Jindal -- 8%
Stephen Waguespack -- 6%
John Georges -- 5%
Bret Allain -- 3%
Cary Deaton -- 2%



2020 Democratic Polling:

Nationwide:
Joe Biden -- 25%
Bernie Sanders -- 23%
Elizabeth Warren -- 13%
Kamala Harris -- 9%
Cory Booker -- 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
Sherrod Brown -- 5%
Amy Klobuchar -- 3%
Howard Schultz -- 3%
Undecided/Others -- 6%

Iowa:
Bernie Sanders --  23%
Joe Biden -- 23%
Elizabeth Warren  -- 15%
Sherrod Brown  -- 7%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 4%
Kamala Harris -- 3%
Amy Klobuchar -- 2%
Julian Castro -- 2%
Cory Booker -- 2%
Undecided/Others -- 19%

New Hampshire:
Elizabeth Warren -- 22%
Bernie Sanders -- 20%
Joe Biden -- 18%
Kirsten Gillibrand  -- 11%
Cory Booker -- 6%
Kamala Harris -- 4%
Sherrod Brown  -- 3%
Undecided/Others -- 16%

South Carolina:
Kamala Harris -- 26%
Cory Booker -- 23%
Joe Biden -- 20%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7%
Bernie Sanders -- 7%
Elizabeth Warren -- 5%
Julian Castro --  3%
Sherrod Brown -- 2%
Undecided/Others -- 14%

2020 Republican Polling:
Nationwide:
Donald Trump -- 72%
Jeff Flake -- 15%
Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa:
Donald Trump* -- 75%
Jeff Flake -- 16%
Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire:
Donald Trump* -- 70%
Jeff Flake -- 15%
Undecided/Others -- 15%

South Carolina:
Donald Trump* -- 80%
Jeff Flake -- 10%
Undecided/Others -- 10%


2020 General Election:

Trump vs Generic Democrat:
Generic Democrat -- 54%
Donald Trump* -- 33%
Undecided/Others -- 13%

Trump vs Biden:
Joe Biden -- 53%
Donald Trump* -- 35%
Undecided/Others -- 12%

Trump vs Sanders:

Bernie Sanders -- 54%
Donald Trump* -- 32%
Undecided/Others -- 14%

Trump vs Warren:
Elizabeth Warren-- 53%
Donald Trump* -- 34%
Undecided/Others -- 13%

Trump vs Biden vs Blankenship [internal poll for the Blankenship campaign]
Joe Biden -- 43%
Donald Trump* -- 43%
Don Blankenship  -- 8%
Undecided/Others -- 6%

Generic House Ballot:
Democratic -- 52%
Republican -- 30%
Undecided/Others -- 18%

[Edgeofnight]

A lot of stuff is gonna happen between the last update and Iowa, but a lot of it isn't really the most interesting, so I'm gonna condense it down into one long update, that I hope will be out tomorrow or over the weekend.

Until then, here is this:

[Edgeofnight]

People seemed to like the Finkenauer infobox on Discord, so here is another one I have been sitting on:

[Edgeofnight]

November 2nd, 2019

Bullock withdrawing from Presidential Race, “strongly considering” running for U.S. Senate.

Iowa’s largest Newspaper has endorsed Senators Sanders and Flake for their respective nominations, calling for the end of “the Age of Fear and Anger” in American politics.The newspaper also described that Sanders has a unique ability to “inspire a new generation” of leadership


Next part is the Iowa Caucuses

[Edgeofnight]

February 4th, 2020

BERNIE WINS IOWA IN BLOW TO WARREN AND BIDEN.
Klobuchar and Schultz end campaigns.

Bernie Sanders -- 28.55%
Elizabeth Warren  -- 18.36%
Joe Biden -- 18.09%
Sherrod Brown -- 8.89%%  
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7.50%
Cory Booker -- 5.62%
Kamala Harris -- 4.30%
Amy Klobuchar -- 3.70%
Howard Schultz -- 2.40%
John Delaney -- 1.89%
Other* -- .72%

*Includes withdrawn candidates.

[Edgeofnight]

TRUMP BEATS BACK CHALLENGER IN GRAND FASHION
Insurgent Senator pledges to stay in the race until the convention.

Donald Trump -- 82.00%
Jeff Flake-- 17.77%

Others -- .23%

These are not legally binding caucuses, but where held by the parties in question at various points during the year. The Libertarian and Green"primaries" where done by mail in ballot, while the Constitution Party used an in person strawpoll and the SAM primary was done by an online vote with one in person voting site.

Libertarian Party:

Uncommitted -- 1,398/ 18.73%
Bill Weld -- 1,232/16.51%
Austin Petersen -- 963/12.90%
Peter Schiff -- 829/11.11%
John McAfee -- 693/9.28%
Aubrey Dunn Jr. -- 562/7.53%
Mary Ruwart -- 535/7.17%
Adam Kokesh -- 411/5.51%
Arvin Vohra -- 408/5.47%
Vermin Supreme -- 220/2.95%
Zoltan Istvan -- 137/1.84%
Others -- 76/1.02%

Green Party:
Jill Stein -- 396/45.94%
Jesse Ventura --211/24.48%
William Kreml -- 120/13.92%
Ralph Chapman -- 72/8.35%
Uncommitted -- 58/6.73%
Other -- 5/.58%

Constitution Party:
Uncommitted -- 104/26.87%
Don Blankenship -- 102/26.36%
Darrel Castle -- 70/18.09%
Jeff Boss -- 47/12.14%
Jack Fellure -- 32/8.27%
Scott Copeland -- 15/3.88%
Jim Clymer -- 10/2.58%
Others -- 7/1.81%

Serve America Movement/SAM:
Evan McMullin (write-in) -- 46/34.07%
John Kasich (write-in) -- 28/20.74%
John Kingston -- 25/18.52%
Jeff Flake (Write-in) -- 15/11.11%
Laurence Kotlikoff -- 13/9.63%
Greg Orman (Write-in) -- 6/4.44%
Stephine Miner (Write-in) -- 2/1.48%

As a minor/major retcon depending on how you view it, Andrew Gillum is now the Governor of Florida, not Gwen Graham. He picks Graham as his running mate for the general election. I will not retcon his choice of LT. Gov even if he doesn't pick Graham.

This isn't relevant but I made it a while ago, and so I'm just gonna post it now.

[Edgeofnight]

Since I forgot it in the last two posts, Current Delegate Count:

2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Delegate Count*:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Bernie Sanders -- 20 Delegates
Sen. Elizabeth Warren -- 12 Delegates
Fmr. Vice Pres. Joe Biden -- 11 Delegates
4,008 Remaining Delegates

2020 Republican Presidential Primaries, Delegate Count:
1,237 Delegates Needed
Pres. Donald Trump -- 25
Fmr. Sen. Jeff Flake -- 5
2,472 remaining Delegates

2020 Libertarian Presidential Primaries, Delegate Count:
464 Delegates Needed
Uncommitted -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld -- 2 Delegates
Mr. Austin Petersen -- 1 Delegate
Mr. Peter Schiff -- 1 Delegate
Mr. John McAfee -- 1 Delegate
Fmr. NM Land Comm. Aubrey Dunn, Jr. -- 1 Delegate
Mrs. Mary Ruwart -- 1 Delegate
Mr. Adam Kokesh -- 1 Delegate
918 Delegates Remaining

2020 Green Presidential Primaries, Delegate Count:
202 Delegates Needed
Mrs. Jill Stein -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Jesse Ventura -- 1 Delegate
Mr. William Kreml -- 1 Delegate
397 Delegates Remaining

2020 Constitution Party Primaries, Delegate Count
171 Delegates Needed
Uncommitted -- 2 Delegates
Mr. Don Blankenship -- 2 Delegates
Mr. Scott Bradley -- 1 Delegate
Mr. Jeff Boss -- 1 Delegate
Mr. Jack Fullure -- 1 Delegate
333 Delegates Remaining

2020 Serve America Movement Primaries, Delegate Count
218 Delegates Needed
Evan McMullin (undeclared) -- 1 Delegate
John Kasich (undeclared) -- 1 Delegate
John Kingston -- 1 Delegate
Jeff Flake (undeclared) -- 1 Delegate

*Count does not include Superdelegates, who can not vote on the first ballot.

[Edgeofnight]

Your infobox lists Hillary Clinton when it should say Elizabeth Warren

It has been fixed, thanks!

[Edgeofnight]

February 5th, 2020

Jeff Flake’s performance spells trouble for President.

While the insurgent Senator failed to break 20% of the vote, his 18% should still have the president concerned about his ability to reach out to voters within his own party. In what is shaping up to be a competitive General Election, every vote may very well count.

February 5th, 2020

Bernie Sanders now the slight favorite for the Democratic nomination.

The Vermont Senator has cemented his status as a front runner with his victory in the Iowa Caucuses. Now, Pundits and Predictit agree he’s the favorite for the Democratic Nomination.

February 7th, 2020

Hassan backs Gillibrand before New Hampshire Primary

The Governor-turned-Senator of New Hampshire has thrown her weight behind the New York Senator, praising her record on women’s issues and her leadership in the Senate.

February 8th, 2020

Susan Collins endorses Flake, campaigns in New Hampshire

The moderate, retiring Maine Senator has backed Trump’s primary challenger, saying that her party desperately needs a new leader.

February 10th, 2020

Warren Campaign making last stand in New Hampshire

If the Massachusetts Senator fails to win the Granite State, sources say she will end her presidential campaign.

February 10th, 2020

New Hampshire polling: Flake taking one-quarter of the vote and Democrats in dead heat.

 

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary:
Elizabeth Warren  -- 21%
Bernie Sanders -- 20%
Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18%
Joe Biden --15%
Sherrod Brown -- 6%  
Kamala Harris -- 5%
Cory Booker -- 4%
Undecided/Other -- 11%

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary:
Donald Trump -- 63%
Jeff Flake -- 25%
Undecided/Others -- 12%