US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[muon2]

My suspicion is the DOJ didn't want to press the boundaries of the VRA for fear that the whole thing could get thrown out. Of course, that may end up happening anyways.

I think that section 5 of the VRA is the part they were most concerned with overturning. If that were eliminated DOJ would lose its special position to preclear changes in affected jurisdictions.

[Miles]

Not that I'm expecting much to come of this but Louisiana is being sued as CD2 is being called a racial gerrymander.

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[Sol]

This is a Louisiana that the state GOP would do if a Black district isn't required. LA-02 is a tossup district. LA-05 is drawn to slightly favor Riser in a rematch.

[Miles]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

[Sol]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

CD1 is pretty safe if I recall- around 39% McCain (although I exited out of the App before I was able to save this map).

[Miles]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

CD1 is pretty safe if I recall- around 39% McCain (although I exited out of the App before I was able to save this map).

But what about CD2?

The McCain % in CD1 wouldn't be the problem for Scalise; it would be the potential of a Cajun Republican running.

[Sol]

If I were trying to draw a pro-Riser map, I would also have CD4 span the entire AR border, like with this map. That way, three of McAllister's best parishes are excised. I'd maybe also trade Lincoln parish to push the district further south.

What are the numbers for your CDs 1 and 2? I don't think Scalise would like that map. He'd have to run in the district with Orleans Parish or run in the blue district, which would be good for a Cajun candidate like Landry.

What I like about these types of LA maps is that you usually end up with a nice compact capitol district.

CD1 is pretty safe if I recall- around 39% McCain (although I exited out of the App before I was able to save this map).

But what about CD2?

The McCain % in CD1 wouldn't be the problem for Scalise; it would be the potential of a Cajun Republican running.

If I recall, CD2 voted for McCain but had a D average.

With regards to Scalise, I know. This is simply a super-partisan map in that area.

[Miles]

If I recall, CD2 voted for McCain but had a D average.

With regards to Scalise, I know. This is simply a super-partisan map in that area.

Do you have any more screenshots of it? I'd say Republicans would concede a New Orleans district. Otherwise, something like your CD2 would practically be an invitation for Mitch Landrieu to run for Congress.

[Sol]

If I recall, CD2 voted for McCain but had a D average.

With regards to Scalise, I know. This is simply a super-partisan map in that area.

Do you have any more screenshots of it? I'd say Republicans would concede a New Orleans district. Otherwise, something like your CD2 would practically be an invitation for Mitch Landrieu to run for Congress.

I redid it.
NOLA Area:

St. Tammany Parish:

[Miles]

Given the swings in southeastern LA, CD2 could very well be a McCain -> Obama district. If not, Romney would definitely be under 50%.

Going for 6-0 would just be too risky for Republicans, IMO.

[Sol]

Given the swings in southeastern LA, CD2 could very well be a McCain -> Obama district. If not, Romney would definitely be under 50%.

Going for 6-0 would just be too risky for Republicans, IMO.

It isn't risky at all. The two main issues are that Scalise would throw a tantrum, and common decency. CD1 isn't threatened at all, and there's no harm in making CD2 a little friendlier for a Richmond-Cao rematch.

[Miles]

It isn't risky at all. The two main issues are that Scalise would throw a tantrum, and common decency. CD1 isn't threatened at all, and there's no harm in making CD2 a little friendlier for a Richmond-Cao rematch.

Even if Cao beats Richmond, a white Democrat, like Mitch Landrieu or John Georges, could beat him.

Scalise has too many allies in the legislature to a get district like that in the first place. 

[Sol]

It isn't risky at all. The two main issues are that Scalise would throw a tantrum, and common decency. CD1 isn't threatened at all, and there's no harm in making CD2 a little friendlier for a Richmond-Cao rematch.

Even if Cao beats Richmond, a white Democrat, like Mitch Landrieu or John Georges, could beat him.

Scalise has too many allies in the legislature to a get district like that in the first place. 

I suppose you and I have a different definition of risky- It's an improvement for the GOP to go from a 5-1-0 map to a 5-0-1 map- a Democrat could certainly win though.

Yeah, and I know Scalise make it impossible. Thank goodness!

[Miles]

My attempt at a clean 5-1 that the legislators might like:



CD1- About as good as its gets for Scalise. He keeps his homebase of Metairie as well as St/ Tammant/Tangipahoa parishes. The district picks up a few river parishes, which the residents (least least in LaPlace and eastward) there mostly consider themselves part of the NOLA area anyway.

CD2: 57% Obama but swung a few pointss towards him in 2012. This resolves the 'packing' issue in the current lawsuit as for the VAP, its 48% white, 40% black. There actually is some precedent for a district like this as Hale Boggs' seat was Orleans Parish plus some coastal parishes.

CD3: Of all the current Congressmen, King Rep. Boustany would be the one most averse to having his district changed. I changed a total of one precinct here.

CD4/CD5: There was only so much you could do to weaken McAllister, given Riser's poor showing. I moved McAllister's hometown, Swartz, into CD4 as well as some of his best precincts in Ouachita parish. I cut off all the districts northern parishes and swapped them for some in Acadiana, which at least should be better for Riser.

CD6: I just kinda tried to make this a clean, whole-parish district and work around it to accomplish my other goals. 57/42 McCain but probably 55/43-ish Romney. A Baton Rouge Republican should be good to hold it in most cases.

[Miles]

More on the lawsuit. They want a court-drawn map, so it may be out of the legislature's hands (if it goes through):

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[jimrtex]

More on the lawsuit. They want a court-drawn map, so it may be out of the legislature's hands (if it goes through):

A federal court never has first authority to draw district lines.

The plaintiffs seem to be arguing that if Louisiana was still subject to pre-clearance, that the map would lawful.   But if the district court were to rule in favor of the plaintiffs, Louisiana might be subject to the bail-in under Section 3, which would then make the plan lawful again.

The plaintiffs aren't likely to carry forward on a full-out attack on the inconsistencies between Section 2 and Section 5.  So eventually they will be stuck arguing based on constitutional and Section 2 arguments that they could have filed in 2011.  So they are quite unlikely to get a preliminary injunction for 2014, and it is most likely a case that will be running for the next several years.

[Miles]

Well, there goes that. The lawsuit against CD2 was withdrawn; no reason was cited.

[Frodo]

Let's suppose Gov. John Bel Edwards is (narrowly) re-elected, though with Republicans winning a veto-proof majority in the Senate but falling just short in the House as seems likely to be the case tomorrow -how would that affect redistricting in 2020-21?  

[Skill and Chance]

Let's suppose Gov. John Bel Edwards is (narrowly) re-elected, though with Republicans winning a veto-proof majority in the Senate but falling just short in the House as seems likely to be the case tomorrow -how would that affect redistricting in 2020-21?  

He would veto and try to force separate Democratic leaning districts in Baton Rouge and New Orleans on the congressional map and hope to force a State House map that would have Republicans structurally below 2/3rds.  Some court would end up drawing the map.  The Louisiana state courts are filled by partisan elections and are therefore Republican dominated, so chances are good they would just adopt the legislature's maps.  His best hope is it ends up in a federal court and that court appoints a special master. 

[Oryxslayer]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

[Mr.Phips]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

And if the House is just short of a supermajority, Edwards can prevent African American legislators (who make up the vast majority of the Democratic caucus) from joining Republicans by using the potential for a second black majority (or influence) district,, which the Republican plan would never had.

[Sol]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

It's also possible to draw a black district with Lafayette+Baton Rouge and then draw a non-majority Black New Orleans district which would still very likely elect an African-American.

[Tintrlvr]

JBE's case doesn't rest in the courts, it rests with the census data. If the AA pop is high enough, he's going to make the case that AAs deserve 2/6 rather than 1/6. Presently AA pop is near 33%, and NOLA rebounded hard after Katrina, but the AA pop in the belt is shrinking, like everywhere. There's a few ways you can draw that second seat, but it always involves going from BR to Caddo. This is less a case for common cause and fair Redistricting groups, and more a case for NAACP. I'm going to have a LA thread up tomorrow if JBE win, but the simple explanation is that this is going to be a battleground, no matter if the GOP has a supermajority or not.

It's also possible to draw a black district with Lafayette+Baton Rouge and then draw a non-majority Black New Orleans district which would still very likely elect an African-American.

I think this is a much more likely outcome than a Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport district.

[Tintrlvr]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/louisiana/#Dem

Eh you can make a reasonably compact 2nd black district.

On 2010 racial figures. I'm skeptical that will continue to be the case in 2020.

[Oryxslayer]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/louisiana/#Dem

Eh you can make a reasonably compact 2nd black district.

On 2010 racial figures. I'm skeptical that will continue to be the case in 2020.

2020 BVAP projects are far more  favorable to the urban areas than 2010, you need a second city with BR.