An early look at 2006 House races

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In PA, I think 6 (Gerlach) and 8 (Fitzpatrick) will be the most competitive races, with outside shots at 13 (Schwartz), 15 (Dent) and 17 (Holden) being competitive if a strong challenger is found.

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It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

Phil, you're from Eastern PA, right?  In Western PA there is a widespread feeling that had he lived, John Heinz would have been President.  The man has more or less been sainted.  His son would ABSOLUTELY make a race out of  this if not win outright.

I understand that John Heinz is loved out in western PA but I don't think Chris Heinz would be loved as much as his father. The name can only take you so far and I really doubt it would take Chris to Congress.

The name kicks in the door for him.  The throw in his step-father's Presidential campaign organization (and contacts) in the area and that gets him even further.  Add on his personal charisma (I've met the guy, he has a lot of it) and you have a real race.

Oh, and to DarthKosh, a Heinz hasn't run in 12 years ... but the name is revered highly.

Joe Paterno is also a Pennsylvania legend, and we all saw how well his son did this year

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Joe Paterno is also a Pennsylvania legend, and we all saw how well his son did this year

4 points here.

1) If Scott Paterno had run for football coach he would have had a much better chance because that is what his old man does.  Heinz was in politics.

2) Paterno was a total newcomer to politics.  Heinz was heavily involved in his stepfather's Presidential bid (especially on the local level in Pittsburgh) and has a massive political network.  Paterno has a massive football network.  These are not the same thing.

3) I've also met Scott Paterno.  He's a fat duchebag with about 4 brain cells left and zero charisma.  Chris Heinz has a lot of natural charisma.

4) Despite all of this, Paterno still had a chance.

Even though Paterno was a terrible candidate, the fact that even with a great name and a should be GOP district, he couldn't even break 40% of the vote.