Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.

[2016]

Republicans only need 5 Seats to take the House so yes for once Harry Enten is right here! And they will get those 5 Seats purely through Redistricting. No wonder Democrats want a Federal Takeover of Election to push their liberal Agenda through!

[DrScholl]

Republicans only need 5 Seats to take the House so yes for once Harry Enten is right here! And they will get those 5 Seats purely through Redistricting. No wonder Democrats want a Federal Takeover of Election to push their liberal Agenda through!

The forecast for redistricting now has them only gaining 1-2 seats through redistricting. They will be guaranteed to lose at least 5 seats through redistricting and that is about what they will make up through their own efforts. At best they break even going into the election and they will end up being heavily reliant on holding and flipping Biden districts. Not as easy as it sounds.

[2016]

Republicans only need 5 Seats to take the House so yes for once Harry Enten is right here! And they will get those 5 Seats purely through Redistricting. No wonder Democrats want a Federal Takeover of Election to push their liberal Agenda through!

The forecast for redistricting now has them only gaining 1-2 seats through redistricting. They will be guaranteed to lose at least 5 seats through redistricting and that is about what they will make up through their own efforts. At best they break even going into the election and they will end up being heavily reliant on holding and flipping Biden districts. Not as easy as it sounds.

There are also some Districts which Trump won in 2020 where a Democrat currently sits in the District. Don't forget that! And if Biden does have a similar JA like his former boss Obama GOP will retake the House no matter what!

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans only need 5 Seats to take the House so yes for once Harry Enten is right here! And they will get those 5 Seats purely through Redistricting. No wonder Democrats want a Federal Takeover of Election to push their liberal Agenda through!

The forecast for redistricting now has them only gaining 1-2 seats through redistricting. They will be guaranteed to lose at least 5 seats through redistricting and that is about what they will make up through their own efforts. At best they break even going into the election and they will end up being heavily reliant on holding and flipping Biden districts. Not as easy as it sounds.

There are also some Districts which Trump won in 2020 where a Democrat currently sits in the District. Don't forget that! And if Biden does have a similar JA like his former boss Obama GOP will retake the House no matter what!

There were more swing voters then.  This CA election shows that partisan makeup of the districts is key.  And there are more GOPers in Biden districts than the reverse.  That could change marginally based on redistricting but it's not looking like it's going to change much if Indiana and a few other states are any indication.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

I still don't get why the blue avatars are comparing Newsom to Biden rather than, I dunno... NEWSOM TO NEWSOM.  Don't we hear here all the time that local elections are different than federal ones?

[Sbane]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

I still don't get why the blue avatars are comparing Newsom to Biden rather than, I dunno... NEWSOM TO NEWSOM.  Don't we hear here all the time that local elections are different than federal ones?

Losing Orange County by any margin in a gubernatorial election is embarrassing for Republicans. This is a horrible result for Republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lol I could tell this was a Woodbury thread immediately.

Woodbury says Newsom underpreformed Biden in OC, but considering he almost lost that county in 2018 shows something.

I still don't get why the blue avatars are comparing Newsom to Biden rather than, I dunno... NEWSOM TO NEWSOM.  Don't we hear here all the time that local elections are different than federal ones?

Losing Orange County by any margin in a gubernatorial election is embarrassing for Republicans. This is a horrible result for Republicans.

This is the new norm.  Bush beat Gore in Fairfax County Virginia.  The just barely lost it in 2004.  Since then the margins against Republicans have been LOL.

[Woody]

After CV and the Inland results, I think we are safe to say that these results were quite pathetic for democrats. Especially San Bernardino County where Biden won by double digits.

[Holmes]

After CV and the Inland results, I think we are safe to say that these results were quite pathetic for democrats. Especially San Bernardino County where Biden won by double digits.

Is "here's why the No landslide is bad for Democrats" the new "here's how Bernie can still win"?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

After CV and the Inland results, I think we are safe to say that these results were quite pathetic for democrats. Especially San Bernardino County where Biden won by double digits.

Thanks for the reminder!

[DrScholl]

The Central Valley and Inland Empire have a lot of lower turnout minorities who show up only in presidential years. That means that the more Republican areas of the counties weigh heavier in off years. And these results were much better than what Democrats have previously achieved in off years or midterms.

[Liberalrocks]

After CV and the Inland results, I think we are safe to say that these results were quite pathetic for democrats. Especially San Bernardino County where Biden won by double digits.

For any Republican to lose Orange County or not get 35% in Los Angeles county is beyond pathetic.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Non-Californians analyzing California elections is fast becoming my favorite comedy bit on this board.

Bonus points when they don't even bother comparing it to previous midterm/off-year elections

[Progressive Pessimist]

Non-Californians analyzing California elections is fast becoming my favorite comedy bit on here.

Bonus points when they don't even bother comparing it to previous midterm/off-year elections

They're reaching in ways that Elastigirl can't even compete with.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Recall ALL demoncrats

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Non-Californians analyzing California elections is fast becoming my favorite comedy bit on this board.

Bonus points when they don't even bother comparing it to previous midterm/off-year elections

Honestly.

[krb08]

They're bad for CA Democrats because they have to keep dealing with Gavin f**king Newsom while Larry Elder, the worst replacement candidate, received almost a majority of the vote.

This is what happens when you choose Yes for Question 1 and leave Question 2 blank.

This is the real bad news. Elder padded Newsom’s margin, and because he won by a lot, he’s less likely to change course (and there will be less external pressure on him to do so).

Newsom is a bad Governor in need of humbling or a primary. The recall made both of these things less likely.

He's one of the best governors in the country, actually

He has a strong, deserved mandate from Californians and it isn't going away.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Recall ALL demoncrats

If you want your party to keep humiliating itself and wasting taxpayer dollars, go ahead.