Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

IT BEGINS

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Tories out to an early lead. 6 votes to 2, to 1, in some radom riding. Oxford it seems.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Kitchener Waterloo, PC,

4-1-1 already PC

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

STUDENT VOTE
 student vote

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of results up, but so early that they're uselessly early.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

31L 27P 8N

[2952-0-0]

I'd like to see the look on Hudak's face if the PCs are ahead by a razor thin margin by popular vote but McGuinty remains in office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

wtf Chatham-Kent-Essex? 15/248 so still very early, but not quite lolearlylol early...

Though here's a good one for the latter: NDP lead in Eglinton-Lawrence!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Lib - 51
PC - 35
NDP - 12
to come - 10

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Tories are ahead in Scarborough Agincourt. It's early, but it's not "20 votes" early. This is interesting for sure, usually it's a Liberal lock. This is a very Asian (chinese) area of the city, and the PC candidate has an Asian last name. Perhaps it's someone with local roots (like that dude NDP over in Malton) I'll be keeping an eye on it to see if this matters in any way.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Interesting in Parkdale, but due to the geography, who knows. Still, another riding for an eye.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Essex is trending NDP while both Windsor seats are more Liberal, interesting. Essex will be something I'll be keeping track of.

7 to come.
Lib 48
PC 39
NDP 13

[mileslunn]

It looks like a Liberal win as I predicted, but it will be close either way.  Majority or minority, it looks like it will be only a few seats off so I think at this point it looks clear McGuinty will be premier for the next 2 years, the question is whether it will be four or not.

[mileslunn]

So far it seems like a strong rural/urban divide, with the Liberals dominating urban Ontario and PC dominating the rural areas.  Also CP24 just projected a Liberal win, but won't say whether a minority and majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NDP is doing worse than expected. The Liberals currently ahead in both Parkdale and TriSpa. Unless this trend changes, it's bad news for the NDP

Meanwhile, the Tories doing better than I expected

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thunder Bay Atik is interesting, it is stronger Lib while it should be NDP.

NDP in second place in Kingston - I expected them to do somewhat well here.

Malton is neck and neck and neck.

ALSO CBC DECLARATION
LIBERAL GOVERNMENT

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Large parts of Toronto still have hardly anything in, so, caution with individual seats.

[mileslunn]

The GTA is still mostly red, but Southern Ontario is mostly blue i.e. much like the Tories federally in 2008 and 2006.  It looks like the rural/urban divide regardless of the result will be strong.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

Currently, the parties are tied, 35.5 to 35.5, and yet the Liberals have 50 seats to the PC's 39 and NDP's 18

[2952-0-0]

From tomorrow there will be a lot more converts for electoral reform.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Parkdale and Agincourt are behaving normally now, but TriSpa is still leading for the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP hold Welland.

[mileslunn]

I think the Liberals will probably win the popular vote due to the fact urban ridings tend to come in slower than rural, although it will probably by less than 5%, but we shall see.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Libs lock up Peel, with the possible exception of Malton.

[mileslunn]

I have a map on CBC of the federal and provincial results side by side and suprisingly very similiar map wise, the biggest difference appears to be in the GTA where the Liberals are dominating unlikely federally including the all important 905 belt.