PA-Susquehanna: McGinty +2
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Author Topic: PA-Susquehanna: McGinty +2  (Read 897 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: August 08, 2016, 10:45:57 AM »
https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/toplines-statewideabc27-aug16.pdfShe leads 42-40.

In the same poll, Clinton is leading Trump by 9 (46-37), so Toomey is overpeforming Trump by 7 points.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2016, 10:48:28 AM »
Lean D.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2016, 10:50:03 AM »
Latest polls:

Susquehanna: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 2 --> Toomey overperforming by 7.
Franklin: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 8.
PPP: Clinton + 4 / Toomey + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 5.

On average, Toomey is overperforming Trump by 6.7 points.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 10:51:12 AM »
Trump might not actually come that close in PA. McGinty's led in 4 of the past 6 polls, and once RCP includes this poll, she'll be ahead in the average (it's tied right now.) I'm starting to believe she might really pull this off. Toss-up.
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2016, 10:54:18 AM »
Quote from: Cris on August 08, 2016, 10:50:03 AM
Latest polls:

Susquehanna: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 2 --> Toomey overperforming by 7.
Franklin: Clinton + 9 / McGinty + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 8.
PPP: Clinton + 4 / Toomey + 1 --> Toomey ov. by 5.

On average, Toomey is overperforming Trump by 6.7 points.
Thank you for the average!
Well, if he does averagely overperform her by 6.7 points, it will be very difficult for him to survive in the end. Not impossible, but difficult!
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Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2016, 11:29:23 AM »
McGinty can pull it out, but only if most of the "khan bounce" lasts through election day.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2016, 11:31:38 AM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on August 08, 2016, 11:29:23 AM
McGinty can pull it out, but only if most of the "khan bounce" lasts through election day.
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 08, 2016, 10:51:24 AM
Toomey will win. If Sestak had won the Democratic nomination, though....
Tilt R in my book for now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2016, 12:46:59 PM »

Seat 5!!!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2016, 09:43:45 PM »
thank you CLINTON COAT TAILS!!!
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2016, 08:11:10 AM »
« Edited: August 09, 2016, 08:49:15 AM by FreePhoenix »
Assuming Clinton wins it, if the gap is greater than 6-7, Toomey wins. Anything less is McGinty. Trump wins it, obviously Toomey does.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2016, 04:09:08 PM »
Quote from: FreePhoenix on August 09, 2016, 08:11:10 AM
Assuming Clinton wins it, if the gap is greater than 6-7, Toomey wins. Anything less is McGinty. Trump wins it, obviously Toomey does.

The difference between the two will narrow as we get closer to election day.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2016, 05:56:12 PM »
Quote from: FreePhoenix on August 09, 2016, 08:11:10 AM
Assuming Clinton wins it, if the gap is greater than 6-7, Toomey wins. Anything less is McGinty. Trump wins it, obviously Toomey does.

This is about where I'm at as well.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2016, 06:40:07 PM »
Both will be narrowly defeated.
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