Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....

[AN63093]

Sort of an old bump, I know, but it's a fun thread.

Assuming my remaining lifetime is about 45 years or so, give or take, there are very few states, perhaps zero, that I'd be willing to bet would never flip, as in 100% certainty.  On the other hand, I could see several flipping in the case of a realignment, albeit it could take years or even decades for that process to completely unfold.

Still though, the only states that I'd consider say.. <0.5% likely of flipping in my lifetime would be:

Maryland
Wyoming

If we increase the likelihood a bit, maybe I'd add:

Oklahoma
Massachusetts

[AN63093]

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.

[AN63093]

I think Texarkana has a good point on this- and it's why I chose MD as one of my "never flip in my lifetime" states, but not VA, at least not yet.  I do agree with you MT, that VA is inelastic and polarized and perhaps increasingly so as time goes on, and there are a slew of other states I would expect to flip before VA (people that claim that VA is a toss-up state, or even a swing state, I do not think are paying particularly close attention to what is going on).

But that being said, the margin is narrow enough, there are still enough GOP voters in the state, and its flip was recent enough, that I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that in a stars-aligned, GOP landslide scenario that the GOP could win VA in a "last gasp," so to speak.  Sort of a Bush in '88 or Clinton in '96 type outcome.  Don't get me wrong, I do not think this is likely.  Just that I can envision the scenario- whereas, I cannot envision a realistic scenario where states like MD and MA flip, even in landslides.  Of course, this landslide, if it were to occur, would have to happen soon, since VA may become completely un-flippable in a cycle or two.


@MT Treasurer

You have an interesting point in regards to WV- right now the eastern panhandle is growing, in fact, it's the only part of the state that's really growing outside of Morgantown.  I have to do some more research into this area, but most of the growth is in Berkeley Cty and in Jefferson Cty, which is part of the DC MSA obviously... which always seemed a bit silly to me.  I've never heard of anyone actually doing that commute, but that's only anecdotal and I suppose people must be doing it, since the MARC goes all the way up through Harpers Ferry to Martinsburg.  It's over 90 min by train if you do that commute, which sounds absolutely ghastly and unacceptable to me, but then again, when I was still living in NY I knew people that did something similar from the far reaches of Westchester and CT.  So perhaps it's only a matter of time, especially given the DC MSA is growing rapidly.

[AN63093]

I tried to consider this, as well.  If WV can so drastically change its preferences in such a short time not so long ago, it's not out of the question it will do it again in my lifetime.  States like the Dakotas and Nebraska and Kansas, on the other hand, have riden the waive with the GOP regardless of its various forms and messages so long as the Party of Lincoln retained even the smallest shred of an "individualist" message, and I don't see that ever going away.

I agree with you, and that is why I picked WY and OK first, as least likely to flip, as opposed to states such as WV or KY.  The next on my list might be ND, or maybe NE.  I think I am a little less confident about SD or KS, though not significantly so.

These states all have either no large metro area, or in some cases, few metro areas at all (OK does have OKC, the only MSA in the US top 50 in this region, although KS has a portion of the KC metro).  Most of these states are growing very slowly (only the Dakotas are above the US average, I believe).  I don't have statistical data on this unfortunately, but I suspect migration into these states from places like CA is very minimal, so the likelihood of a Colorado type situation seems quite low.  Industries in this region include agri-business, ranching, oil/gas, and so on, and I'm not sure any of these have ever really been Dem-leaning industries, especially the latter two.  

These plains states are also more ancestrally Republican, though I hesitate to bring this up since I'm not sure how relevant it is- after all, it is something of a fallacy to assume prior results will causally dictate future results.  But I suppose it's worth mentioning that none of these states have been competitive (outside of 1964) since 1948, and Dewey still won the Dakotas and NE/KS.  OK was competitive in 1976, that is the other exception I'm aware of.

So states like WV or KY, although it seems extremely unlikely given the current margins, and I would certainly not predict this to happen; I could envision scenarios with a tailor-made candidate and the right messaging at least making those states more competitive.  These scenarios may have a chance of less than 5% say, but I can still envision them.  Whereas a state like WY- I don't think it would flip in anything short of a complete realignment where the GOP bares absolutely no resemblance to the current party.

[AN63093]

Is everybody totally writing off the possibility of another 1912 at some point in our lives? Something like that could totally screw up any conventional wisdom we have about trends. Woodrow Wilson won Idaho with 32% of the vote in that state...something like that could flip MD or WY in the right circumstance.

Good question, twenty42, and that's actually something I haven't considered.

Since there is a fairly significant divide between factions in both major parties right now, I would say the risks of a 1912 are increasing.  In fact, 2020 might be the best chance of a "1912" that we've had in a long time, certainly in my lifetime.

The chances are still pretty low, however.  I would argue the two wings of the GOP were a little more distinct in that time with a deeper rift, and on top of that, there isn't a highly popular, well known, charismatic figure that is leading the Never Trumpers at the moment, at least in the same way that Roosevelt led the Progressives.

[AN63093]

LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.

[AN63093]

LA and MS before WY, or ND, or OK?

OR?  Before NY, or WA, or VT, or MD?

And MN is a swing state, LOL.

Very confused.

I believe that 2020 will be a realignment, and that the Democrats will realign in a more libertarian direction, adding the west to their column. The GOP will then move in a more Christian Populist direction, taking enough black and hispanic voters to make the deep south safe and turn northern urban states into swing states. OK goes democratic once during a landslide. NY and WA become swing states, as does WA.

I think the GOP could certainly become more populist, and in fact, will become more populist, but Christian populist?

I don't see any evidence of this.  Religiosity is significantly declining among all millennials, irrespective of party.  The current youth movement in the GOP is not Jerry Falwell style evangelicalism, but is Alt-Right nationalism, and this movement is not very religious at all, in fact, most of its adherents are probably atheists or at least agnostic.

I also don't see the Dems becoming a libertarian party, but even if they did, why is OR their strongest state, as opposed to any other Western states?  And MA?  RI?  Those are not libertarian states, in fact, quite the opposite.