2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[mileslunn]

NDP doing horrible, at only 2-3%.  Though I wonder if the fact each riding has only 4,000 people hurts them as I suspect personal popularity of candidates has a bigger impact here than in other provinces.

[mileslunn]

CBC has now projected a Liberal majority, yawn

[mileslunn]

Will have to see the final results, but there seems to be a pattern be it in Toronto mayoral election, last federal, and NB provincial that the polls underestimate Tory support.  I wonder if it will continue or just a coincidence.  My theory is polls are weighted based on a representative sample of the population while certain segments are more likely to show up than others and the groups more likely to show up are also more likely to vote Tory.

[mileslunn]

It seems like using federal results, you would get the same numbers 3 Liberals to 1 Tory, but Cardigan going Tory and Egmont going Liberal otherwise the Tory's strength is at opposite ends (East provincially and West federally).

[mileslunn]

The problem with 308 is he uses uniform swings or federally uniform regional swings which while they work in some places they don't work here.  Too bad Democraticspace.com didn't cover this as their projection is usually one of the most accurate as is Barry Kay at Wilfred Laurier University.

[mileslunn]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

 Lets wait for the final results, but if they are underestimated maybe the same will happen tomorrow and Thursday.  Not necessarily, but just saying.

[mileslunn]

The Tories are down to 6 seats and their popular vote is falling slightly.  I am guessing the Charlottetown polls are a bit slower to come in so the numbers will fall a bit more.

[mileslunn]

PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.

  True in the case of the NDP as what little support they have is mostly in Charlottetown, but both the Liberals and Tories seem to do marginally better in the rural parts.

[mileslunn]

This would seem to be a good argument in favor of proportional representation.

  Depends on the minimum threshold.  If it was 4 or 5% as in most places that use PR the Greens and NDP would still get shut out.  Off course the results would probably be different if PR was used.  Its unlikely you would get identical results with different systems.

[mileslunn]

A Liberal majority as expected, although it appears the Tories did better than most predicted.  Ironically enough the Tories got almost the same percentage their federal counterparts did last May however the NDP did significantly worse (they got 15%, vs. only 3%).  Tomorrow should be interesting.  If the Tories do better than expected we may have to revise Thursday's predictions, but otherwise it may just in this case not across the board.

[mileslunn]

I've done some, er, poll by poll maps.

I couldn't decide which one was more vomitworthy so I've included both.



The Tories and Liberals tied in two (one got mis-labled somehow as straight tory). No other party won.

  Anybody know how this would have been coloured in the most recent federal election just for comparison.

[mileslunn]

The Tories seem to be doing well in the West of Winnipeg, I am awaiting the South of Winnipeg as usually whomever wins this wins the election.

[mileslunn]

Still awaiting the South.  The NDP is dominating the North side as expected.  Hopefully soon we can get a projection.

[mileslunn]

Global usually is first.  I find CBC the most cautious of all networks in calling races.

[mileslunn]

CTV I heard has called it for the NDP.  It will still be interesting to see if the win the popular vote though as the PCs tend to rack up huge numbers in the Rural South so less efficient in their vote.

[mileslunn]

Every network except CBC has called it, so I think we can say it is an NDP majority.  Pretty historic.  History may also be made on Thursday if the Liberals in Ontario get the third back to back majority in over 100 years.

[mileslunn]

Anybody think the NDP will win the popular vote or do you think the PCs will win that?

[mileslunn]

Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

Its happened elsewhere, although not as large.  Charest won the popular vote in 1998, Campbell in 1996, Lord in 2006, and Hermanson in 1999 albeit those were rather narrow wins.  Also Trudeau beat Joe Clark in 1979 by 4.5% in votes yet won more than 20 seats fewer.

[mileslunn]

Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

It's happened lots before in lots of places in canada.

 Usually its a lot closer though.  If it wasn't only a slim majority for the NDP and slim popular vote for PCs, that would be fine.  Mind you, the system at least forces parties to have support throughout the province not through racking up massive margins in one area.

[mileslunn]

Another thing, if you look at elected vs. just leading, you notice most ridings the PCs are ahead in they have been declared elected whereas the NDP is leading, thus that likely means the PCs are winning be bigger margins in the ridings they are ahead in.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised about Dawson Trail - it looked very Tory on paper, the NDP incumbent left the seat... I expected it to almost certainly be Tory but it's not even close.

I think it has a large Francophone community.  Not sure though why federally this area goes massively Tory as the Tories federally are hardly any better at being champions of linguistic minorities, albeit not openly hostile like the Reform Party was.

[mileslunn]

308's going to get this one right

Looks like it.  I think he even projected a Tory lead in popular vote but 15 seat deficit.

[mileslunn]

It is closing a bit.  Usually urban ridings come in slower so there is an outside chance the NDP will narrowly win the popular vote.  That would be that much better for them.

[mileslunn]

The NDP has narrowly pulled ahead in the popular vote, so maybe they will win that too.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the NDP will win the popular vote, not by much but however you look at this a pretty strong achievement.  Not to undermine the rebound of the NDP, but I do get the impression it seems people like to stay with the party they know during difficult times thus why you see the Liberals polling ahead in Ontario.