Wisconsin Senate Recall-a-palooza: 2012 Edition

[Tender Branson]

Can anybody please post the 2008 Obama vs. McCain results in these districts as well as the 2004 and 2008 and 2010 results of these elections ?

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

I´m pleased to see that PPP got the recall election right that was already held.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, why are these recall elections held during summer/vacation time and not in November ?

[Tender Branson]

And why are there recall elections in only a handful of districts and why are also Democratic incumbents up for recall ?

[Tender Branson]

Ah, ok. Thx.

In my opinion these elections won't tell us anything. It's like predicting the upcoming parliamentary election here by using a local state election before that and projecting the results. More or less useless.

I´m only interested in how PPP's polls in some of the districts turn out (the ones they did this weekend).

[Tender Branson]

Here is 1 poll from Magellan Strategies (R) that you forgot to post:

Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an autodial
survey of 1,433 voters inWisconsin Senate District 18. The survey was conducted August
4th, 2011.

The survey finds the race statistically tied. Republican, Randy Hooper is currently polling
47.5%, while Democrat Jessica King is polling 50%. The electorate is extremely polarized.
Of the 47.5% Hooper is polling, 46.1% is definitely supporting Hooper and of the 50% King
is polling, 48.1% is definitely supporting King.

The race appears to be a referendum on Governor ScottWalker and unions. Ninety-eight
percent of voters who support Hooper also approve of the job Governor ScottWalker is
doing, while 95%of King’s support disapproves of the job GovernorWalker is doing.
Likewise, 85%of Hooper’s support has an unfavorable opinion on labor unions, while 90%
of King’s support has a favorable opinion of unions.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/WISD018_080311-SURVEY-RELEASE1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Looks like PPP and Magellan did pretty well again.

The results are about what I expected, I thought Democrats would win 2 of them.

[Tender Branson]

SD-22:

    Robert Wirch (D-inc): 55
    Jonathan Steitz (R): 42
    Undecided: 3
    (MoE: ±2.9%)

SD-12:

    Jim Holperin (D-inc): 55
    Kim Simac (R): 41
    Undecided: 4
    (MoE: ±2.6%)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/15/1006949/-Wisconsin-recalls:-Democrats-hold-double-digit-leads-in-final-two-races

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that PPP did well again ...

[Tender Branson]

With Florence having another 1400 votes (55% for the Republican), the total result won't change. Holperin will win with about 30500 votes to 24800 votes, or 55.2%

[Tender Branson]

Final poll roundup:

SD-12
PPP: 55-41 Holperin (Holperin +14)
WAA: 51-49 Holperin (Holperin +2)
Final (more or less) result: 55-45 Holperin (Holperin +10)

PPP was off by 4, they weren't as far off as everyone thought. WAA was off by 8.

SD-22

PPP: 55-42 Wirch (Wirch +13)
Final result: 58-42 Wirch (Wirch +16)

And PPP underestimated Wirch a bit, but they were only off by 3.

lulz Krazen

If we allocate the undecideds in both races, the polls become even more accurate. More Republicans than Democrats were undecided in the PPP polls, so we can assume that they broke slightly more in favor of the Republican candidates. If allocated, the PPP polls were within about 2% of the final results. I´m already waiting for CARLHAYDEN to tell us once again that PPP is the new R2K ...

[Tender Branson]

So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

[Tender Branson]

So, do the WI Dems control the State Senate again with this 1 pickup ?

Yes, 17/16. The 17 Democrats - as mentioned - are all solidly Democratic and will be very likely to oppose any and every Walker policy put forth.

But only for the next 1/2 year ...

[Tender Branson]

Final election night results from Racine County:

LEHMAN (D): 36,255
WANGGAARD (R): 35,476   

Freedom Fighters
So I am guessing nothing destructive will happen in WI until November now, or will Democrats cross the floor?

Nothing was going to happen anyway. The WI legislature is done until Jan 2013 and the new body is inaugurated.

So, the representatives in the Senate/House are paid for --- doing nothing in the next 7 months ?