Ontario 2018 election

[Jeppe]

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

The scandal happened 36 hours ago. It takes a couple of days for scandals to actually affect polling numbers.

[Jeppe]

I’d like to see Raitt as PC leader. She’d be great!

[Jeppe]

Christine Elliot is actively exploring a run too.

[Jeppe]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

Do you mean 3rd ballot? I can’t imagine Granic Allen’s supporters pulling her over the edge.

[Jeppe]

Why did Mulroney do the best in Northern Ontario?

[Jeppe]

One thing I don’t quite understand is, if the NDP vote is too inefficient, then where is it concentrated? Because isn’t Doug Ford supposed to be competitive in SW Ontario, where the NDP’s base traditionally is?

I know that their vote share will increase by a lot in a ton of safe PC seats, at the expense of the Liberals, but there seems to be relatively few NDP blowout seats (where they win by like an unnecessary 30 points or something), unlike with the PC’s. That doesn’t quite seem to add up, but maybe I’m just being dumb..