North Korea Mega Thread

[The Mikado]

So...who's excited for the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in February?

[The Mikado]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I don't think annexing North Korea is on the PRC's wishlist. Their wishlist would go more towards installing a pliant puppet ruler who was dependent on PLA soldiers and cash to stay in power who would be less willing to do crazy rogue state antics while still being a buffer against South Korea.

[The Mikado]

Would China possibly OK South Korea getting all of the North knowing SK would be heavily distracted for years to come integrating the area?

They don't like this idea because the ROK is an American ally and they're concerned that the second the DPRK merges with its southern neighbor, construction will go up on US bases all over the former North Korea and the American soldiers stationed in the South will just move north a few dozen miles into the old North to be even closer to China.

[The Mikado]

Top Chinese demands for a unified Korea would likely be withdrawal of all US forces from the Korean peninsula, a drastic reduction in the militarization of the peninsula (S. Korea has 700,000 in the military, N. Korea has 1 million in the military...a unified Korea could easily do with a military a third the size of South Korea's), and strict border controls to prevent people from illegally immigrating into China.

[The Mikado]

As Saddam showed in the First Gulf War...he did, in fact, have missiles that had a pretty extensive reach. They were borderline useless due to the lack of a harmful payload.

[The Mikado]

Important article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/09/chinas-evolving-north-korea-strategy

"China announced in 2016 that it would create a force dedicated to nuclear emergencies, including responding to nuclear accidents in foreign countries.9 Chinese military officers have explicitly stated that contingency plans are in place for a mission to secure DPRK nuclear weapons and fissile material, and that they involve moving Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) troops at least one hundred kilometers into North Korean territory.10"

This is a key factor in any decision the US makes. If we do an offensive against NK, the chances are high that the Chinese push south to stabilize the border. As they push south, the risk of air sorties hitting PLA soldiers are high (so the US would need to establish a deconfliction zone/ADIZ with them), as well as the possibility that any land the PLA secures, China will claim, similar to the grabs by the Soviet Union during and following WW2.

It's immensely complicated.

I don't think China wants to incorporate any N. Korean land in the aftermath of the war. China's #2 goal (after the #1 goal of preventing unification) is to prevent a flood of N. Korean refugees into China. Making N. Korea part of China makes those people already there.