North Korea Mega Thread

[pikachu]

Its far too late to be planning a preventive war. As much as we hate it, the status quo seems like the best option. Let North Korea wall themselves off with nukes if it saves Seoul IMO.

Realistically, this seems like the most likely option imo. The US has lived with a hostile power having the capability to launch a nuclear weapon on the US mainland before, and North Korea is never going to launch a missile against any other country because they know that their regime won't survive the war. I don't see why some here are so ready for the US to start a war... 

[pikachu]

If North Korea attacks us, I don't see why fire and fury isn't appropriate.  We should avoid war at all costs, but if it comes down to it, as in North Korea attacks us, Trump is right.

People who are complaining about retaliatory strikes are wrong.

Has anyone said that we shouldn't retaliate if they attack us or our allies? I just don't see why North Korea would do that, it'd be suicidal.

I also don't think launching a war's going to increase Trump's approval ratings. If you look at the bump Bush got from launching Iraq in 2003, the bump was only 10% and dissipated in less than a year. A significantly more brutal war in East Asia which would likely require to shoulder a massive amount of the burden of the postwar recovery likely won't even get to that.

[pikachu]

If North Korea attacks us, I don't see why fire and fury isn't appropriate.  We should avoid war at all costs, but if it comes down to it, as in North Korea attacks us, Trump is right.

People who are complaining about retaliatory strikes are wrong.

Has anyone said that we shouldn't retaliate if they attack us or our allies?

Some are complaining about the fire and fury thing

The fire and fury statement said threats, not an actual attack, so I think it's fair to be worried about it.

[pikachu]

"And the Lord rained upon Sodom and Gomorrha brimstone and fire from the Lord out of heaven. [25] And he destroyed these cities, and all the country about, all the inhabitants of the cities, and all things that spring from the earth."

not really sure if the destruction of seoul and tokyo is a noble thing

[pikachu]

The point of the nuke is to be a deterrent and insure that his regime won't fall because of invasion...the alarmism that North Korea obtaining a nuclear weapon means that they are going to attack LA asap is ridiculous. Kim's rational, he knows that any attack on the the US/Japan/ROK is suicidal. The North Korean regime doesn't have some nihilistic, ideological mission to destroy the US a la ISIS, they just want their rule to survive.

[pikachu]

...

I think that a strike on North Korea today would be a mistake of horrific scale, but I think it's also important to remember that the Korean War started because of an unprovoked North Korean attack on South Korea, and that if the US didn't intervene, it was more likely than not that the North would've won war. Looking at how the Kims have treated their people over the last 70 years, and how the South is today, I think it's really hard to argue that the best result of the war would've been a unification of the country. Even today, it's understandable that why the North Korean regime wants a nuclear weapon, and it's going to serve as an excellent deterrent for them, but it's also going to prolong the existence of the regime, which is bad for both the North Korean people and the region as a whole.

[pikachu]

...

I think that a strike on North Korea today would be a mistake of horrific scale, but I think it's also important to remember that the Korean War started because of an unprovoked North Korean attack on South Korea, and that if the US didn't intervene, it was more likely than not that the North would've won war. Looking at how the Kims have treated their people over the last 70 years, and how the South is today, I think it's really hard to argue that the best result of the war would've been a unification of the country. Even today, it's understandable that why the North Korean regime wants a nuclear weapon, and it's going to serve as an excellent deterrent for them, but it's also going to prolong the existence of the regime, which is bad for both the North Korean people and the region as a whole.

The problem was not solely that America intervened, which I would've opposed anyway, it is what we did during said intervention. As was noted in the quoted section in my previous post that pertained to our actions during the Korean War, our bombing was indiscriminate of civilian casualties and we completely leveled the country, killed over 1 million North Koreans, and bombed every form of infrastructure, including hospitals. That is what has not only provoked an intense hatred and fear among North Koreans towards us but has allowed the ruling family to feed on that paranoia and resentment for its own gain. Nothing protects a regime from its countless faults quite like militarized nationalism. And, daily, we provide them with more fuel to feed that fire which they use to protect themselves.

North Korea obtained a nuclear weapon following the elimination of a treaty signed by President Clinton. When they felt no progress was being made to ease the sanctions and isolation imposed on their country, they pursued the nuclear route. The sole hope of convincing them to denuclearize is to re-enter negotiations and sign a peace treaty with them. Since the US is determined not to do that, then their nuclear program will continue to advance, as will their provocative displays of power. Sanctions, embargos, and isolation have not worked for years now. It didn't work with Cuba or anyone else, either. Only by negotiations and defusing tensions have improvements, not only in our international relationships, but conditions in those countries occurred. The path to reforming or overthrowing the North Korean regime, without a war with millions of deaths, is through peace and cooperation.

I feel like that's kind of a bit overly sympathetic to the Kims? The regime's only survived because of Soviet and Chinese aid. Beyond that, the North Korean regime treats their people absolutely terribly (I'm sure you know all about the labor camps, famine, punishing children for their parents' crimes, etc), and it's not like this stuff isn't well-known by the people who live there (along with the knowledge that Chinese and South Korean people live significantly better live than them). The crimes of the US isn't why the regime survives; it's that the fact that it terrorizes its people and there's really no way for the North Korean people to organize and resist the regime.

With that, I can't see any scenario in which North Korea denuclearizes; while I think that negotiation is necessary just to ensure that they don't escalate their program anymore. But, at this point, it would be idiocy for North Korea to give up the deterrent, because if there ever was a peaceful uprising (like in Libya), they could easily massacre their people with no fear of a foreign intervention. At this point, the best we can hope for is North Korea to do nothing to the US and its allies. But for the North Koreans themselves, I can't see any scenario where the Kim regime will fall in a peaceful way. The nuclear weapon has guaranteed that.   

[pikachu]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

[pikachu]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(source)

So, uh, China?

Does anyone in China believe Trump is actually calling the shots in his administration? Or that he's capable of following through on anything?

I'll also point out that for all Trump's whining that diplomacy doesn't work, he has never actually engaged in any.

If the goal is to denuclearize North Korea, Trump's probably right that diplomacy won't work - there's really way it's in the self-interest of the North Korean regime to give up their nuclear weapons and tbh it's not like they negotiate in good faith anyway. The more pertinent question now is whether we're willing to live with the status quo of North Korea having nuclear weapons which can hit the US. Not that I think Trump has handled this well and I don't have faith in him doing the right thing, but it's not his fault that we're at a point where we're choosing between a very bad situation and an absolutely awful one.

[pikachu]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(source)

So, uh, China?

Does anyone in China believe Trump is actually calling the shots in his administration? Or that he's capable of following through on anything?

I'll also point out that for all Trump's whining that diplomacy doesn't work, he has never actually engaged in any.

If the goal is to denuclearize North Korea, Trump's probably right that diplomacy won't work - there's really way it's in the self-interest of the North Korean regime to give up their nuclear weapons and tbh it's not like they negotiate in good faith anyway. The more pertinent question now is whether we're willing to live with the status quo of North Korea having nuclear weapons which can hit the US. Not that I think Trump has handled this well and I don't have faith in him doing the right thing, but it's not his fault that we're at a point where we're choosing between a very bad situation and an absolutely awful one.

Kim doesn't want to end up like Saddam Hussein. They will NEVER give up their nukes. Also, we already live under the Chinese, Russian, and Pakistani nuclear threats. We should just isolate that regime, cut all trade, and leave them to rot alone. America will be fine.

Lol I didn't proofread- meant there's no way in NK's self-interest to let go of nukes. To what Beet's saying, Kim will just find new excuses to build weapons. Even if the US leaves, the fundamental calculus for the regime doesn't change - possession of nukes is the only way to guarantee regime survival in case there's any external or internal threat.

[pikachu]

Interesting article on the extent of how much the China-North Korea relationship has soured.

Oh, that is fascinating.

I wonder how we should react if North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at China, instead of Guam or the continental United States.  More importantly, how would China respond?  Would it flood troops into North Korea, and effectively annex it after annihilating the Kim dynasty root and branch?  

I think they would invade, but I can't see a scenario where annexation is a plausible long-term solution. With annexation + presumable liberalization of North Korea that comes with that, there's no way that North Koreans will want to live under Chinese rule when they people who are culturally more similar them, who they feel a sense of nationhood with are to the south. On the Chinese side, I find it hard to believe they'll feel enthusiastic to inherit the mess that North Korea is, especially when you how unwilling South Korea is. On a similar note, it's also an open question on how South Korea will feel about China invading territory they technically claim.

[pikachu]

North Korea could be facing a 'perfect storm'