Latino Decisions: Week 11. Obama 73, Romney 21

[J. J.]

I highly doubt the Mittens Hispanic performance will be this awful. 30% is more like it. We shall see (to the extent it can reasonably be measured at all once the votes are all counted and analyzed).

Three other polls were showing it substantially better.  What is Latino Decision's track record? 

[J. J.]

As I noted in my thread, the Romney debate surge has been polls showing movement to 40-45% Latino support for Mittens.  Without that figure, Romney is still down 3-5 points nationally.  Indeed, the only two polls that haven't shown that movement: RAND and TIPP have been giving this race to Obama for awhile now.

If Latino Decisions is actually the one that is right here (along with RAND and TIPP) and not all the other pollsters, we're heading straight into another Dewey Defeats Truman moment and the polling problems with Hispanics that gave Republicans false hope will probably be talked about for years to come.

In truth, I think the real answer is somewhere in the middle.

Who would you put your money  on, actual Hispanic pollsters  who know the culture and speak Spanish or some American pollsters who probably only know two words  in Spanish hola and gracias.

I would trust Latino Decisions, I believe this is their  expertise.

I trust their ability to speak Spanish, but that doesn't make them good pollsters. 

[J. J.]

Not a great pollster, then. 

[J. J.]

It's worth pointing out that you're comparing their results with an exit poll's results in a single state of a group that makes up like 15-20% of respondents in the state. There could also be considerable error here due to margin of error of the exit poll's subsamples.

For the record, Latino Decisions also did a national poll in 2008, which showed a 37 point margin of Obama over McCain, extremely close to the 36 point margin showed in the national exit poll.

That poll was taken in June 2008. 

[J. J.]

Not a great pollster, then. 

If so, mostly because they substantially underestimated Hispanic support for the Democrats in Florida.

Well, the did the opposite in CO, so it isn't a bias issue. 

[J. J.]

Not a great pollster, then. 

If so, mostly because they substantially underestimated Hispanic support for the Democrats in Florida.

Well, the did the opposite in CO, so it isn't a bias issue. 

Not suggesting it is. But it might be worth remembering that their 2008 FL numbers look like a lot of pollsters' 2012 FL numbers for Hispanics. There's precedent, in other words, for pollsters underestimating how Obama would do with Florida Hispanics.

Yes, but that doesn't answer if LD is a good pollster. 

[J. J.]

Not a great pollster, then. 

If so, mostly because they substantially underestimated Hispanic support for the Democrats in Florida.

Well, the did the opposite in CO, so it isn't a bias issue. 

Not suggesting it is. But it might be worth remembering that their 2008 FL numbers look like a lot of pollsters' 2012 FL numbers for Hispanics. There's precedent, in other words, for pollsters underestimating how Obama would do with Florida Hispanics.

Yes, but that doesn't answer if LD is a good pollster. 

Only one way to find out...

Which is what we're asking about.  With any poll, we should be looking at their track record.