GOP house gains in 2012?

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

That's what I was thinking though we really won't be gaining many more.

[Keystone Phil]

the Christine ODonnell/Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle nutter type

memphis, NOW is on line one for you.   

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

We could get Holden's and Critz is likely to be eliminated by redistricting.

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't it be a better idea to make Holden safe and try to shore up all the other Republicans in east PA?

I guess they could give some of the more Republican areas on the edge of the 17th to other Republicans (especially Barletta).

[Keystone Phil]

Altmire, Critz and Holden are all going to be in trouble in 2012 no matter what happens with redistricting. Altmire faced a bottom of the barrel candidate who has not supported by the establishment and he could be in an even more difficult district in 2k12. Critz would probably be facing a stronger challenger in 2012 without redistricting but that's moot because his district is done and he will only have awful choices for other districts to run in. Holden's only real base this year was in Schuylkill County, if the Republicans want to be bastards they could eliminate that and make things every difficult for him.

Overall bad things are going to happen in PA.

Holden would just run wherever Republicans put Schuylkill county.  If he and Altmire could survive in the worst year for Democrats since 1894, they can survive in 2012.  

Altmire only barely survived because he faced no serious opposition. The same applies somewhat towards Holden.

Holden faced a state Senator.  Ill state that any Democrat who won in 2010 is safe for life. 

A State Senator that was elected in a Special election just months before deciding to run for Congress, for the record.

Here's a story about the redistricting target: Is it Critz or Holden? - http://tribune-democrat.com/local/x603547917/Redistricting-crosshairs

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, you linked article suggests that the Pubbies will not have free reign to gerrymander the sh*t out of PA. Was this procedure in play in 2001?  I mean, the lines are drawn by a committee of 5, with the swing vote supposedly impartial. So just how would the GOP get their fantasy map even on the table to vote upon?

CC:  Muon2

Yeah, the committee is supposed to be impartial. As weird as this may sound, even with the Democratic members and an Independent, the GOP still gets what they want. In fact, this was in place in 2001 and all of the Democratic members of the committee signed off on the plan!

Personally, I wish we had a totally independent body control this to make sure it is fair.

[Keystone Phil]

I just love how everyone assumes 2012 is going to be another great GOP year after good year in 2010. Kind like "2010 is going to be just another great year for Dems after 2008". Oh yes, it sound logic as well, such a majority, few seats in Senate to defend...

Everyone? There are people (like myself) stating that we can't make the same mistake we made after 2004 and the same mistake the Dems made after 2006 and 2008.