AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Tender Branson]

If they say "Dem hold", it could point to a 53-44 PPP result.

[Tender Branson]

PPP says Barber winning by double-digits.

Numbers out in the next hour.

[Tender Branson]

Q1 The candidates in the special election for Congress are Democrat Ron Barber, Republican Jesse Kelly, and Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Ron Barber ..................................................... 53%
Jesse Kelly...................................................... 41%
Charlie Manolakis ........................................... 4%

...

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ron Barber?

Favorable........................................................ 54%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jesse Kelly?

Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 59%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 50%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gabrielle Giffords?

Favorable........................................................ 67%
Unfavorable .................................................... 24%

Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?

John McCain................................................... 44%
Barack Obama................................................ 50%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 42%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other.......................................... 22%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_611.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Meh, why did they include that 3rd-party candidate again ...

We all know that he ends up with only 0.5% or 1% ...

So, here's my prediction:

54% Barber
45% Kelly
  1% Manolakis

[Tender Branson]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.