New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has now added a new section for betting on the winner of both the Iowa caucus and the NH primary (for both parties).  It's brand new though, so no one has placed a bet yet.

[Mr. Morden]

Current asking price for the IA and NH winners (yes, they add up to more than 100, as the ask and bid prices haven't converged yet):

IA
Clinton 45.0
Edwards 45.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 15.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 30.0
F. Thompson 25.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 65.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 20.0
Gore 15.0

Giuliani 35.0
Romney 30.0
McCain 29.9
F. Thompson 20.0

[Mr. Morden]

McCain is now running ahead of Giuliani most of the time in the "odds to win the GOP nomination market", but is still behind him in the general election market, reflecting the market's belief that Giuliani is the better general election candidate.

Also, we've now had some transactions in the IA and NH markets.  Current prices:

IA
Clinton 38.0
Edwards 38.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 8.0

Giuliani 28.0
McCain 24.0
Thompson 24.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 58.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 14.0
Gore 10.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 25.0
Thompson 14.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has now surged all the way to 21.0 (which is, I think, an all time high for him), which I'm guessing is due at least in part to his surge in IA and NH polls.

Meanwhile, McCain gives back some of his recent gains, by dropping to 24.6.

We now have three GOP candidates whose Intrade odds to win the nomination are between 20 and 30%, which makes it remarkably wide open.

[Mr. Morden]

The McCain-Romney gap continues to narrow, as it's now:

McCain 22.5
Romney 20.6

And Romney has now moved into second place in the odds to win NH primary market:

Giuliani 35
Romney 33
McCain 27
Thompson 14

though the volume is still very low.

Romney is doing pitifully in the "winning individual" market however.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

[Mr. Morden]

Back in December, when Jfern started this thread, the GOP odds were:

McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0

I doubt there were many people back then who would have guessed that in May we'd be at:

Giuliani 28.2
McCain 20.1
Fred Thompson 20.1
Romney 20.0

It just goes to show how the conventional wisdom on 2008 has taken so many bizarre twists and turns stretching all the way back to 2005.

Oh, and Romney is now leading in the NH primary market.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain's now in freefall.  He's dropped all the way to 17.3.

[Mr. Morden]

And now Romney is surging.  As I type this, it's now:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 27.0
F. Thompson 21.6
McCain 18.0

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has now surpassed Giuliani.  It's now:

Romney 28.9
Giuliani 28.1
Thompson 21.6
McCain 17.8

Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

Well, ya can't get 'em all right

Well, now the fourth thing on that list, "Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election", has indeed happened, as Gore is now ahead of McCain (and ahead of Giuliani!) in the winning individual market.  In fact, Romney is now the leading Republican in the general election market(!!!).  I think the only one of those four things I speculated on that hasn't happened is "Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination".  Not sure if that's happened.  In any case, it's not likely to happen again any time soon.

In the GOP nomination market, Romney has slipped back behind Giuliani, and McCain has slipped to what may be an all time low for him:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 25.5
Thompson 19.5
McCain 15.5

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani is in first, but down to 26.5, while McCain is in fourth, but up to 20.2.  It's remarkable how close Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson all are.  Basically, the market now believes that you might as well pick one of those four at random if you want a good guess as to who the nominee will be.  It's rare to see such a close 4-way race in *any* futures market.

[Mr. Morden]

Why is Edwards tanking so badly?  He's now down to 5.5.

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, Intrade now has a market in which people can bet on the chances that Michael Bloomberg runs for the White House as an independent.  Current market price is 24.5% chance that he'll do so.  The "winning party" market also gives a 2.6% chance that a third party or independent candidate will win the general election.

[Mr. Morden]

(I wouldn't be surprised, though, if Bloomberg ends up teaming up with Paul, who is ideological much closer to him than Hagel and has more or less the same name recognition these days.)

Not sure if Paul would go for that.  I don't follow NYC closely enough to have any examples offhand, but I thought Bloomberg was heavily into nanny statism, like smoking bans?  Also, what's Bloomberg's foreign policy ideology?  I would guess it would be more "internationalist" like Hagel, rather than "isolationist" like Paul, even if he agrees more with Paul on Iraq.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson gains on news that he is in fact running, putting him in second place:

Giuliani 26.7
Thompson 24.4
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.3

Thompson has also surpassed McCain and Romney in the "winning individual" market, which means he's now rated as the second most likely Republican to end up going all the way and winning the general election (after Giuliani).

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, approximately one year ago today, the Tradesports odds to win the GOP nomination were something like this:

McCain 40
Allen 18
Romney 13
Giuliani 10
Rice 5
F. Thompson not even listed yet

Approximately two years ago, they were something like this:

Allen 20
McCain 18
Frist 14
Giuliani 10
Romney 8
Rice 5
F. Thompson not even listed yet

(I just got that by eyeballing the graphs, so numbers are approximate.)

[Mr. Morden]

Update: It's now:

F. Thompson 26.9
Giuliani 25.6
Romney 23.0
McCain 17.6

Thompson has taken the lead for the first time ever.  Going by the Intrade numbers, Thompson is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Michael Bloomberg to run as Independent 27.0
(IMO, that should be at 74.9: the inverse of Giuliani's odds.)

74.9%?  You honestly think that if Giuliani doesn't get the GOP nomination, Bloomberg is 100% guaranteed to run?  That there's no chance that he decides that he doesn't want to be president, or that he decides that an independent candidacy would be such a longshot that he doesn't want to put himself through such a campaign, and flush $1 billion down the drain?

[Mr. Morden]

While it's low volume, Thompson has also taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market.  Current Intrade Iowa odds on the GOP side:

F. Thompson 32.0
Romney 30.0
Giuliani 15.0
McCain 14.5

[Mr. Morden]

So it's now:

Clinton 51.9
Obama 27.2
Gore 10.2
Edwards 7.0

So, compared to before the debate, Clinton and Edwards have gained, and Obama and Gore slipped slightly.

Also, on the GOP side, while McCain has been in 4th place for the last week or so, he's now also slipped to 4th place among Republicans in the "winning individual" market, with Romney now surpassing him.

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2

Well, ya can't get 'em all right

No problem.  Anyway, the fourth thing on the list has now also happened.  Gore odds to win the general election have topped McCain's odds to win the general election.  At the rate McCain's been dropping, we might just see Gore odds to win the Democratic nomination exceed McCain odds to win the GOP nomination.

Or how about Fred Thompson odds to win the GOP nomination passing Obama odds to win the Dem. nomination?  How long before that happens?

[Mr. Morden]

First, thank you for the information (which I already had).  I thought you had said that Thompson "has announced."  If this had occured, it would have been news to me.

He's announced the formation of an exploratory committee, which is pretty much as good as announcing that he's running.  Huckabee also hasn't done an official announcement that he's running (only an exploratory committee), but it's pretty obvious that he's running.  The actual announcement of candidacy is little more than a formality.

[Mr. Morden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well yes, Bayh dropped out.  Just like other candidates have and will drop out.  But I still think that once you have an exploratory committee, you're basically running.  Kerry didn't officially announce his 2004 campaign until freaking September of 2003, after having spent the first 8 months of the year campaigning, raising money, and participating in multiple debates.  I just don't see how the official announcement of candidacy really means anything these days.

[Mr. Morden]

Check with the FEC and they will tell you there are numerous legal differences between announced candidacies and exploratory committees.

Well yes, obviously there are *legal* differences, but that's not the point.  The point is that nowadays, by the time most candidates make official declarations of their candidacy, it's already clear that they're running.  (The exploratory committee allows them to do pretty much  everything an "official" candidate can do.)  That's why, for example, McCain didn't get any bounce out of his April announcement that he's running, as it was already pretty clear that he was doing so even before the announcement.  Same with Kerry in 2003, and I can cite any number of other examples.  Likewise, Thompson got a bounce out of his exploratory committee announcement, because the doubters realized "Oh, I guess he really *is* running after all."