US House Redistricting: New York

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

That's boringly easy, though. All you have to do is connect it with Flatbush and East Flatbush. I also don't think specifically trying to piss somebody else off is something you should be endeavoring to do right after church.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Well, I didn't even get to church this morning because I have a bad head cold and stayed up all night doing homework, so you're probably marginally more right with God than I am at the moment anyway. I'm planning to go to Nones on Wednesday instead.

I was playing around with upstate and it's actually possible to make every district along the eastern border pretty likely Democratic most years assuming Bill Owens doesn't get complacent. You just have to make clever use of Westchester, Poughkeepsie, and the Capital District.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That's why the old map is not a Democratic gerrymander overall even though the downstate portion is somewhat (see pages of argument about Orthodox Jews). The old upstate map is quite friendly to Republicans in many places, in particular the areas around the earmuffs. From my perspective, New York politics is perhaps too strange of an animal for me to even be able to determine what a safe district for each party is upstate, but it certainly looks more like a Republican gerrymander upstate to me.

Upstate politics is highly personal (see Carl Paladino approaching or breaking sixty per cent pretty much everywhere west of the Finger Lakes while losing almost two-to-one statewide) and if somebody, especially an incumbent, gets a district that's just a few PVI points towards his or her party he or she is pretty much impossible to expunge except in wave years. Districts that are considered 'safe' in upstate New York have PVIs around 5 or 6. The only non-Westchester upstate district with a PVI greater than 6 in either direction is the earmuffs.

BRTD, if you want to challenge yourself, you should also be using the Orthodox areas in Midwood and points south for this exercise.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I stopped paying it serious attention as soon as I saw what was done to the Capital District and that the earmuffs still existed.

The earmuffs are terrible, but would you like the capital district to look like? TimothyinMD's map looks pretty much the same as muon's in that area. Pretty much all of them are ugly in some way around there.

My preferred type of district in that area would take in Albany, more of Rennselaer, and as close to all of Schenectady as can be managed. If more population is needed it should go up into Saratoga or down into Greene or Schoharie. muon's isn't great (quite frankly none of muon's upstate map appeals to me except maybe Western New York, though I love his NYC and Long Island), but including Greene makes it a bit less ugly. traininthedistance and Torie have done the best upstate maps so far.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Rationale for my proposal:

1. Buff/Roch are similar cities and combined in one district keep from overpowering the suburban/rural portions of western NYS.

Try making this argument to somebody from one of them. They are entirely separate urban areas almost a hundred miles apart.

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In other words, a partisan gerrymander.

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It's its own area called the North Country. It's a community of interest. Making a Sand Lake-to-Canada district while Malone is separated from Plattsburgh and lumped in with Utica makes about as much sense as Dutch Ruppersberger's district even if it doesn't look as horrible.

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traininthedistance's upstate map, which I think is the best I've seen so far, puts Hochul's and Higgins's homes in the same district, as well as Hayworth's and Lowey's and I'm not sure but I think maybe Gibson's and Tonko's.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I make no claim that my proposal is "non partisan" or gerrymander free.  It is expressly to help elect as many Republicans as possible.

Oh, okay. In that case and for that purpose it's actually a pretty damn good map.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now. Tonko isn't going anywhere. Action there would require both an open seat and unusual circumstances.

I think Lowey should be able to moderate a little if need be, at least rhetorically, and I don't really see too many Jews in this particular area turning against Obama (the Jews over in Rockland and Orange are another story, even some of the non-Orthodox ones, which is part of why I think Hayworth would likely, unfortunately, hold on under these lines absent a very strong opponent). Tonko's actually from everything I've heard about him a fantastic constituency Congressman.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Numbers aside, I tend to think Tonko and Lowey are safer than Slaughter, because they're just better representatives for the most part than she is.

Yes of course. Lowey just has to worry about a Jewish rebellion against Obama, and that she might be a tad liberal for the CD now. Tonko isn't going anywhere. Action there would require both an open seat and unusual circumstances.

I think Lowey should be able to moderate a little if need be, at least rhetorically, and I don't really see too many Jews in this particular area turning against Obama (the Jews over in Rockland and Orange are another story, even some of the non-Orthodox ones, which is part of why I think Hayworth would likely, unfortunately, hold on under these lines absent a very strong opponent). Tonko's actually from everything I've heard about him a fantastic constituency Congressman.

Lowey has all of Rockland (packed with orthodox Jews), and she lost Jewish, secular, liberal and rich Scarsdale.

...she picked up Rockland? Ah. Crap. Yeah, I wouldn't call her entirely safe in that case. I thought it was still with Engel.

Honestly, I think it was probably time for Slaughter to retire last cycle. Yes, I know it was a Republican wave, but the earmuffs were D+15 and I'm sure there are Democrats in Rochester who'd be better primed to hold the district going forward now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yeah, ouch. She should still be able to hold that most years but she probably will have to moderate a bit and might actually have to--well--campaign. On the other hand, I'm sure Engel is pleased as punch.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Some NY Republicans are calling on Bob Turner to challenge Gillibrand if he isn't left with a winnable district: http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/03/brooklyn-gop-chair-pushes-turner-for-congress/

Good luck.