Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Cranberry]

There was a sign in the ÖVP victory crowd which says "Vienna is turquoise".

Might not be wrong with this margin, but we'll have to wait ...

I thoight Vienna was pretty well to the left. Is it actually more like Madrid?

It is very left-wing. Important to note, FPÖ and Greens might yet trade places, seeing as nothing from Vienna is yet in, and that's traditionally the Greens' absolute stronghold.

[Cranberry]

And we still have mail ballots to be counted tomorrow right? which should help Greens even more.

They are already included in the prognosis, the Greens are much weaker in what's currently counted. Could change a mandate or two between parties, but not much more.

[Cranberry]

A sea of turquoise:

While may be unusual for Austria, last US election looked like this despite Clinton winning popular vote so if you have a strong enough urban/rural divide you could have a map look like this and still lose or barely win, mind you I don't think Austria is as urbanized as the US is so might be harder to replicate.

Three of Austria's 5 largest towns - Salzburg, Graz and Innsbruck, are all coloured in turquoise on the map. And even factoring in the dispersal of the left votes, it still looks like Vienna and Linz were the only substantial towns to still give a majority of their votes to the left.

But even Salzburg and Linz are not big places. Really, Austria is basically one quarter Vienna, three-quarters rural hicks.

Graz and Innsbruck are close enough between Greens and ÖVP that the postal ballots might yet change the ranking there, and get the left/right balance about even; Salzburg isn't far behind. But yes, Vienna moves Austria as a whole very much to the left.

South Carinthia isn't just Slovenes, none of these municipalities but Zell/Sele (40% SPÖ, 20% Greens, <5% FPÖ) has a Slovene majority. There's a history of rural mining, small-scale industry and anti-clericalism round there, and the whole area has been an SPÖ stronghold since time immemorial - the Slovene minority does play a role, but not solely.

[Cranberry]

Decided to look at some city results, first up: the hometown, Innsbruck.



The maps look more ÖVP-heavy than the actual results would suggest, seeing as postal ballots are obviously not counted at the precinct level. The city's electoral geography is pretty self-explationary from the results I'd say - university and the old city core full of student appartements in the center, working class districts and high-rises to the east, mostly single-family homes and small appartment blocs to the west. North and south of the valley, above the city, are village-type, extremely expensive inner suburbs (Hungerburg/Arzl to the north and Vill/Igls to the south, easily apparent by the elevated ÖVP/Neos score).

[Cranberry]

Next up city map, Graz - the second biggest city with a population of around 300.000. Similar to Innsbruck very much a university city, where Greens finished a narrow second behind the ÖVP, and SPÖ/FPÖ far behind.



The main dividing line in the city, the river Mur, should be apparent at first glance - the eastern side with the old city core is the traditionally bourgeois, upscale bank; while the working class quarters are situated on the western side. The second main division, as usual in Austria, plays out between city core and inner suburbs, housing the university (in Geidorf, the northernmost of the Green districts) and thus many students and younger people, on the one hand; and outer suburbs and residential / industrial areas on the other. ÖVP is thus strongest in suburban, hillside Waltendorf; Greens in the student quarter St. Leonhard, SPÖ in immigrant-heavy Lend, just across the river from the city core; FPÖ in residential Puntigam, home to one of the country's largest breweries and a Puch factory (as well as the working class football club Sturm Graz); and finally Neos in Innere Stadt, the medieval city core.