Piara Khabra dies

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Parliament's oldest MP dies at 82

A pity but not really a surprise. RIP.

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Southall has a bit of an odd electoral history and any guesses about a possible by-election result are (mostly), just that; guesses.

As far as demographic go, the constituency is 52.67% Non-white (and only 36.44% are "White, British") and about 40% Asian (mostly Indian). Religious-wise, it's 10% Hindu, 11% Muslim and 18% Sikh.

Politics in Ealing is dominated by racial/ethnic voting and so on (not just this end of the borough either; it's hard not to notice that the one Acton ward in which Labour's vote didn't slump badly in in 2006 has a large, and in parts quite established now, Polish community) and nothing like an accurate prediction can be made until we find out who the candidates are. I'm assuming that Labour will run a Sikh and that the Tory candidate will be White, but other than that?

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As the article says, Labour will be choosing from an all-woman shortlist. I don't know how much that might affect voting among more conservative Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, but it could.

Doubt it; so long as the candidate has a surname that sounds "right" that sort of thing doesn't matter in areas with racially polarised politics (and just in case anyone gets me wrong on that, that applies to white voters as much as Asians). The only way in which an AWS could cause trouble in itself is if a white woman from a professional background somehow gets picked as candidate.
But, bearing in mind local politics, I'd be surprised if the Labour candidate isn't a Sikh.

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Some ward maps to give a general impression of the area:



First row is from 2006.

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Haven't you guys heard of a decent interval?

Understood o/c.

Anything that goes beyond electoral geekery/curiosity (or paying respects and so on) will be deleted if it's posted (until a proper by-election thread is posted when the writ is moved).

(Actually I was going to do that anyway, but I might as well say so now. It's a case of trying to draw a line between legitimate (this is an elections site after all) and inappropriate discussion, basically).

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He was well respected across party lines. Yes it's an old line but it's true.

R.I.P

Wasn't he the last M.P to have served in the War?

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(quite a transformation from his earlier persona as a pretty ruthless political operator)

During those "early days" he was in his '60's! O/c there's nothing to say that you can't be both a canny operator and a fundamentally decent person. Khabra was both IMO.

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They tend to be dropped for by-elections, though the front-runner (the leader of the Labour group on Ealing LBC) is a women.

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Did badly in Ealing as a whole, yes, but did well in Southall proper (over 50% in all five wards). The results in the West Ealing part of the seat were more typical of the borough as a whole o/c, but it's not as though those wards were voting Labour by 2005 anyway.

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Parachuting in some token Asian Tory (for that is what it would look like, even if it would be unfair to think so) wouldn't really make much sense for the Tories electorally. The last thing they want is for their white vote to collapse and head LibDemward (for the LibDems will presumably run their last counciller in the constituency; white and from the far east of the seat), what with the boundary changes coming next election (the best Tory, and best LibDem, parts of the seat are returing to Tory-target Acton...).

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Acton returned a Tory from 1974 until 1997.

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There was a major boundary change to the seat in 1997 following the abolition of Ealing Acton (which added those white, middle class wards to the seat).
According to the notionals it didn't have much of a political impact, but I learned a while ago not to trust the '97 notionals (or perhaps any?) very much.

And there will be another major boundary change before the next election, essentially reversing those changes and making the seat pretty much unwinnable (in just about any circumstances I'd have thought) for any party other than Labour.