Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Wilfred Day]

Moose Jaw is also lumped in with a completely different area of the province (now lumped with Lumsden all the way to Saskatoon) is there any connection with these new areas?

Here's the problem: the present Cypress Hills--Grasslands has fewer people than any other riding in Saskatchewan, with only 0.826 quotients, 17.4% below. It must grow north or east.

If Cypress Hills – Grasslands is Cypress RHA plus the Sun West School Division, that was (when I did these figures, with the 2006 census) 75,577 people, 0.99 quotient. That’s 75% of Heartland RHA, including Kindersley, Rosetown and Biggar.

Then you could have a Five Hills—Last Mountain riding centred on Moose Jaw that takes in Assiniboia and Gravelbourg, plus the area up to Strasbourg and Raymore (14,000) and the area down around to Radville (5,000), 0.96 quotients.

Then Souris - Moose Mountain needs only minor adjustments.

But if you keep the Commission's interesting Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt, then Cypress Hills – Grasslands has to grow east, and you end up with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan which includes 34,421 people in Moose Jaw (including the 1,147 in Moose Jaw RM), maybe 6,600 people in Regina suburbs, 6,500 people in Saskatoon suburbs, and another 23,485 in rural areas in between with no population centres except Watrous, Lanigan and Outlook. A bit of a dog's breakfast. But what's the alternative?

[Wilfred Day]

Saskatoon is no problem because the population of the city is just big enough to create three purely urban ridings (as has been done).

I'm very happy to see they managed two fully urban Saskatoon seats.

A blogger has called Saskatoon--Grasswood "rurban," but it is entirely within the Saskatoon Census Metropolitan Area, composed of part of the City and part of the Municipality of Corman Park which surrounds the City.

If all of the suburbs had been put into a fourth riding, we would have had a "Saskatoon-Doughnut." Instead, most of them are within the new Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt including the rest of Corman Park, Martensvile, Warman, Dalmeny, Langham and Osler, Vanscoy, Delisle and Asquith. The rest of the Saskatoon CMA is in Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan.

[LastVoter]

Based on this(stole from rabble):
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9sBXp66G86xNzc2ODRmOTAtYTQ0MC00NmQxLWIzMGItNTU0NTMxMTM1ODkz/edit?hl=en_US
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9sBXp66G86xY2M2ZjhlZDUtZjA2My00NjJmLWFlMmQtYzY0ODBlZWFlMGFk/edit?hl=en_US
Regina:
2 NDP(unless NDP does as bad as in 2011)
1 Lib
Saskatoon
2 NDP
1 Swing

[Hatman 🍁]

We're still waiting for Ontario (the largest), PEI (the smallest) and Manitoba.
How hard is it divide PEI into 4 ridings?

As noted a while ago, PEI's 4 ridings are more equal in population than when they were created 10 years ago. That means no changes.

[Novelty]

I don't suppose we'll be getting any Hatman analysis goodness anytime soon?

[Wilfred Day]

As noted a while ago, PEI's 4 ridings are more equal in population than when they were created 10 years ago. That means no changes.

Indeed. The largest is 2.7% over quotient, the smallest is 1.4% under quotient.

[DL]

The proposed new Manitoba map is out...changes are minor but the most significant change is that Winnipeg North (which went Liberal over NDP by a paper thin 49 vote margin) loses a chunk of very Liberal suburban territory and gains a chunk of old working class inner city territory that was previously in Kildonan-St. Paul...The seat is almost certainly now notionally NDP by several hundred votes

[lilTommy]

The proposed new Manitoba map is out...changes are minor but the most significant change is that Winnipeg North (which went Liberal over NDP by a paper thin 49 vote margin) loses a chunk of very Liberal suburban territory and gains a chunk of old working class inner city territory that was previously in Kildonan-St. Paul...The seat is almost certainly now notionally NDP by several hundred votes

Agreed, Lamoureaux was probably not going to win next time, but with this change even his name won't save hime.
Also, W.South Centre gains a pretty signifigant chunk from W.South; not sure how that will affect anyone.

Selkirk-Interlake got shrunk signifigantly, everything north of Pegus Reserve and the 325 is now in Churchill-Keewatinook Aski (did it need to have the name enlarged? Keewatinook would have been fine). Looks like about a half-dozen NDP polls were lost, and replaced by all tory polls

Provencher also shrank, the area around Lac-du-Bonnet is now in Selkirk-Interlake

Brandon-Souris shrank south, Brandon looks to be the northern border now, Rivers, parts of North Cypress now part of Dauplin-Swan River-Marquette

POrtage_lisgar, surprise shrank south too... but looks like the border with Provencher is more centered around the Red River

Theme, all the rural ridings migrated south crushed by Churchill-Keewatinook Aski

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't suppose we'll be getting any Hatman analysis goodness anytime soon?

Have to switch focus to the Quebec election, sorry. (plus work demands, et al)

[MaxQue]

PEI published its map.

I quote the very short report

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Smid]

PEI published its map.

I quote the very short report

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hopefully they'll adopt that in the final report... make creating new maps just slightly simpler.

[LastVoter]

So Manitoba and SK and AB are good for NDP
BC is good for conservatives
Does anyone know how the Atlantic provinces are shaping up?

[lilTommy]

So Manitoba and SK and AB are good for NDP
BC is good for conservatives
Does anyone know how the Atlantic provinces are shaping up?

NS - arguably no one was the clear winner, but the NDP benefited the most with South Shore-St.Margarets and Halifax West being more favourable to them (still battles) Central Nova gained some good NDP areas but they might have been "Stoffer Polls" over NDP polls.

[trebor204]

It looks like the Town of Morris was gerrymandered back into Provencher. Where the area around Morris moved to Portage-Lisgar

[DL]

It looks like the Town of Morris was gerrymandered back into Provencher. Where the area around Morris moved to Portage-Lisgar

So what? Both Provencher and Portage-Lisgar are already two of the safest Tory seats in all of Canada - we call it "gerrymandering" when it serves a purpose...this serves no purpose.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I will be interested to see the redistributed results for Saskatoon West and Regina-Lewvan; eyeballing things on The506's web site, neither of them looks unwinnable for the Tories in a good year. For this reason I'm not really convinced that this is a favourable division of Regina for the NDP; the poorest part of the city in North-Central is still marooned in the rurban Regina-Qu'Appelle, which went CPC by 15 points, whereas if this part of the city were in the new urban riding it would likely be a safe NDP seat.

It will also be interesting to see whether the NDP can make a serious play for Wascana in the event Goodale stays around. The strategic considerations here are kind of complicated, since it's no longer winnable for a Conservative in a two-way race, but it probably still is in a three-way race.

[Ontarois]

...But if you keep the Commission's interesting Kindersley—Rosetown—Humboldt, then Cypress Hills – Grasslands has to grow east, and you end up with Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan which ... But what's the alternative?

Why would one want to keep the Commission's Kindersley-Rosetown-Humboldt proposed riding -- it is ridiculous, and more importantly, unneeded.  The Commission could have left Battlefords-Lloydminister as is, as it was well within the required population range, being slightly above quota at 76,295 (hey, maybe even cut out a small bit and add it to a neighbouring riding to bring it closer to quota).  Instead, the Commission put the "Kindersley-Kerrobert" (i.e. southern) part of Battlefords-Lloydminister into a riding that crosses more than half of Saskatchewan's width, ane then putting the northern part into a riding that goes far eastward as well.

A simple alternative would have been to leave Battlefords-Lloydminister as is (or slightly expanded), and instead put the easterly parts of the Commission's proposed Kindersley-Rosetown-Humboldt and Lloydminister-Battlefords-Rosthern ridings into a single riding that goes around much of Saskatoon.  Perhaps it could even be called "Humboldt-Rosthern-Rosetown".

That would not alleviate the concerns of the person lamenting Moose Jaw's fate below.  But it would create two more sane ridings in rural northern Saskatchewan.

[Wilfred Day]

They should have had 3 mostly urban ridings in Regina, or 1 urban and 2 rurban ridings.

Here’s the ideal urban solution for Regina and Moose Jaw:

REGINA SOUTHWEST--MOOSE JAW is Regina Southwest about 40,000, Moose Jaw CA 34,421, Pense/Grand Coulee etc. about 2,000, total about 76,421

That leaves 153,100 for two Regina City ridings, each about 76,550.

Total about 229,521. The Commission proposed three ridings totalling 229,686.

The Commission’s SOURIS--MOOSE MOUNTAIN and CYPRESS HILLS--GRASSLANDS are unchanged.

The parts of their proposed Regina—Qu’Appelle and Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan outside Regina City and Moose Jaw will form a riding with about 71,171 residents (3.6% under quotient). Call it QU'APPELLE--LAKE CENTRE.

[Smid]

Wilfred, I was wondering if that was possible. Would then free up the rest of the city to be two urban ridings. Thanks for your calculations!

[Poirot]

Now, if you don’t want to have a large part of Levis in a riding with Thetford Mines, here’s a new alternative, based on the Centre de santé et de services sociaux Alphonse-Desjardins which serves Lévis, Lotbinière, La Nouvelle-Beauce and Bellechasse.

LÉVIS has about 102,100 people, just over quotient.

LA NOUVELLE-BEAUCE—LOTBINIÈRE—CHUTES-CHAUDIÈRE has about 101,393 people, right on quotient.

BEAUCE—LES APPALACHES includes Beauce-Sartigan (50,962), Robert-Cliché (19,288 less Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne 1,459 = 17,819), and Les Appalaches 43,120, total 111,911 (10.5% over quotient). I shaved off Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne because it fits with Les Etchemins and helps bring down that total.

BELLECHASSE--LES ETCHEMINS—MONTMAGNY—L'ISLET has 93,966, and with Saint-Odilon-de-Cranbourne it has 95,425 (5.8% below quotient).

I think there would be opposition from the Beauce region because of the regional identity, not wanting to be split (MRC Nouvelle-Beauce being with Lotbinière). I like seeing possible options.

The Bloc aked the Quebec commission to postpone the process (hearings start early September) because the type of people involved in politics are busy with the provincial election. It was refused. I don't know if having to make submissions in August will decrease participation.

I can tell the Quebec commission was slow to mail paper copy of the proposal. I asked for one when the proposal came out. Last week I checked and was told they would receive them and mail them in the next days. I receive a copy today. The deadline is in one week. 

[MaxQue]

Well, I'm writing a submission to them this week, than I send later this week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario is up, but they dont have the official map on the site yet, but they have the overlay on Google: http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=ON

[Hatman 🍁]

No changes to Ottawa Centre or OWN; Only a minor change to Ottawa South. Carleton-Kanata is created as expected. New riding is "Nepean; Nepean--Carleton remains despite not having any of Nepean now. Beacon Hill no longer split up, Beacon Hill South joins Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Orleans changes somewhat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario remains at 10 seats!

Toronto is pretty much the same map as I had proposed except Scarborough was oriented differently.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really conservative boundaries, so lots of population discrepancies. Barrie splits in half like I thought; Odd split of Malton for some reason???

Weird split of Oshawa too. Lumping the urban part with Bowmanville. That kills the NDP's chances of winning the riding. Welland has been brutalized too. This map is generally bad for the NDP.