Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Back on top by 39

[Hatman 🍁]

FTR, the NDP didn't get below 9% in any riding in 2011. So, yeah bad result. Especially considering they have absolutely no campaign in CC in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens at 90 vote lead now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens up by 141 now.

[Hatman 🍁]

disaster. My girlfriend will be happy though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Where is this Dunham place you speak of?

Anyways, word is from the NDP camp that they have an 800 vote lead with 15 polls to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just read on Wikipedia that my former boss (Bruce Hyer) had been campaigning for the Greens in Victoria. Uh-oh.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forget about a return to caucus then.

Beware of the tree hugging gun nuts. Only in Canada

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens will try and target Victoria next election. It's their 2nd best election ever, I think

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see how the Liberals can spin these results to their advantage. Even in Calgary Centre it can be argued the vast majority of Liberal voters are voting against Crockatt than for anything. The Conservatives can claim to have held onto their seat, but it's humiliating to have to fight for something they take for granted. The NDP are underperforming in all three ridings. So somehow, the Greens can claim victory even though they may not win any seats.

How is the NDP underperforming in Durham?

[Hatman 🍁]

How soon do we get to see results by poll?

It will take awhile, normally around a month.

More than that, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of vote change, the Tories are last night's biggest losers (down 11%). The Liberals actually went up 3.5%, while the Greens were the biggest winners (obviously) up 13%. NDP down 6%.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election and all, but my god, I don't understand why anyone would vote for the Green Party.

Only in BC.

And only on Vancouver Island, it seems.

There are some Green pockets on the mainland as well. Expect the Greens to heavily target Vancouver Centre. Maybe Adrienne Carr will run again (don't forget, she was elected to city council last year). They have done well provincially up on the Sunshine coast as well, but I suspect West Vancouver is too Conservative to let that riding go to the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

Man, that would be awesome for the Tories if the Greens won Victoria. 3 credible left of centre parties splitting the vote. *drools*

The Green Party is not left of centre.

Yeah. I'm guessing that the Green support areas in Victoria will come from the eastern half of the riding, which is the more conservative part.

[Hatman 🍁]

A little birdie (Krago) emailed this to me. I hope he doesn't mind me posting it here:



Kitchener-Waterloo by-election map.

Compare to 2011 results

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by poll results of the Fall by-elections have been posted (a few days ago) on the Elections Canada site: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/off/ovr_2012b&document=index&lang=e

Krago has sent me some maps, I will post them later.

Excellent! Really looking forward to seeing those, particularly the Calgary and Victoria ones.

Victoria is quite.... bizarre. As to be expected in an NDP vs Green race, I guess.

Yeah, the relative closeness of those two is the reason I am interested in them. So no real discernable patterns in Victoria, just randomness?

There's always patterns. If I were more knowledgeable about the city, I could have more to say. Obviously the Oak Bay area is more wealthy and therefore more right wing, but neither the Greens nor the NDP did well there (well, the Greens won Oak Bay, I think, but had lower margins than in the areas they won in Victoria).

Basically, the wealthy areas were 3 way races between the Greens, Liberals and Tories while the less wealthy areas were 2 way races between the NDP and Greens. But beyond that, I'm not knowledgeable enough to discern any patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Victoria. I'll upload the others later.



Compare to 2011:

[Hatman 🍁]

Due to mass vote splitting, the NDP actually won some polls that they had lost last time, probably with a much lower share of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll make a median age map of Victoria to see if there's any trends...

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a median age map



If anything, the younger areas were more likely to vote NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wrong thread guys, this is for the 2012 by-elections.