Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Interestingly, while the Liberals finished 2nd, they didn't win any polls. It was the NDP that won a couple of polls in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Albertans want to sacrifice the environment for "prosperity", then there is no reason for the NDP to try to appease to them.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP were to get government, it would involve winning seats in every province. I think at that point, Charlottetown would go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW, NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy will be running in Rothesay. Not something I would've recommended.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was looking at the federal results in Rothesay, and the NDP actually did quite well in the area. They only won one poll, but probably got around 30% of the vote in the area. I don't think "tripling" the vote will be enough for a credible performance here. Cardy probably wont win, but he needs to aim for at least in the 30s, which I dont think is unreasonable.

[Hatman 🍁]

A special treat I've been working on:

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, the Alliance won a plurality in 2000 with present borders:

Canadian Alliance: 44.9%
Progressive Conservative: 36.0%
Liberal: 13.2%
New Democratic Party: 3.4%

The 2000 map is quite interesting, I'll have to make another map. The Alliance was actually quite strong in downtown Calgary, but not that strong in the wealthy Mt Royal area.

[Hatman 🍁]

Didn't take that long to make:

[Hatman 🍁]

New post on the by-elections today: New post on the Quebec by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/quebec-provincial-by-elections-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

OMG looks like the PQ will win Argenteuil. 10 polls left to go:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 470   36,20 %   510
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 960   33,34 %   
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 831   21,43 %   
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   534   2,99 %   
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   482   2,70 %   
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   237   1,33 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   185   1,04 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   150   0,84 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,15 %   

Another botched prediction by me

[Hatman 🍁]

That's the first time the PQ has ever won Argenteuil, by the way.

LaFontaine (final results)

Tanguay, Marc (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   5 446   53,32 %   3 710
St-Jean, Frédéric (P.Q.)   1 736   17,00 %   
Cavaliere, Domenico (C.A.Q.)   1 591   15,58 %   
Rivard, Sébastien (Q.S.)   603   5,90 %   
Bérard, Gaëtan (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   308   3,02 %   
Zambito, Paolo (O.N.)   167   1,64 %   
Raza, Patrice (P.CO.Q.)   129   1,26 %   
Beauchesne, Marc-André (IND)   104   1,02 %   
Blais, Renaud (P.N.)   88   0,86 %   
Boivin, Guy (É.A.)   42   0,41 %   

Not very good numbers for the Liberals who got almost 70% last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Terrible night for CAQ.

Vote change in LaFontaine

Liberals: -16.44
PQ: -2.11
CAQ: +9.08 (from ADQ)
QS: +3.18
PVQ: +0.29

[Hatman 🍁]

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in LaFontaine: 26% (lol; usually they have really good participation)
In Argenteuil: 42%

Final Argenteuil numbers:

Richer, Roland (P.Q.)   6 568   36,16 %   +2.54
Proulx, Lise (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   6 067   33,40 %   -16.18
Laframboise, Mario (C.A.Q.)   3 887   21,40 % +10.16
Sabourin, Claude (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   543   2,99 %  -0.49
Zanetti, Yvan (Q.S.)   490   2,70 %   +0.61
Sabourin, Patrick (O.N.)   243   1,34 %   
Lecavalier, Jean (P.CO.Q.)   190   1,05 %   
Lapointe, Georges (IND)   151   0,83 %   
Nicolas, Gérald (É.A.)   26   0,14 %

[Hatman 🍁]

So the PLQ vote went CAQ.

I thought it would be the PQ vote that went to the CAQ.

The Conservatives finished 7th in Argenteuil as well. lololol

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the Liberals took a 16 point hit in both ridings. That would imply that they are actually at 26% province wide.

The PQ change in both ridings were minor, a slight increase in Argenteuil, and a slight dip on LaFontaine.

CAQ gained 9-10% from the ADQ's mark in 2008. That would imply they are actually at where the Liberals are across the province, at 26%. Maybe not so bad news?

QS saw minor gains in both ridings.

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

I think it's run by a former Tory MP of Quebec City. Daniel Petit (Charlesbourg)?

EDIT: No, Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), through Petit sits on the executive.

I think he was being facetious.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Max. I was going to make one myself, but I'll use yours. I know the Blunt Objects blog also made one...

What I will do is make a map showing the NDP strength in the area from the 2011 federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the NDP will shock everyone and win the Rothesay byelection. You heard it here.

I don't think they'll win, but getting 40% is not out of the realm of possibility.

Rothesay is a pretty competitive three-way race, if anyone gets 40% of the vote - they win for sure. In fact, I would bet money that whoever wins will win with LESS than 40% of the vote.

I'm thinking the Liberals won't get a good result here, as most of their voters will go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto-Danforth by-election poll by poll results: http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2012/poll_e.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals won 8 polls and tied another (up from being shut out in 2011). A few in Riverdale, East York and the Playfair Estates.

[Hatman 🍁]

Analyzing Rothesay: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/rothesay-new-brunswick-provincial-by.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Yikes! Cardy finishes third. The Liberals actually increased their vote (how!?)

Ted Flemming (PC)   1625    38.26    -18.31
John Wilcox (Lib)            1328    31.27    +2.87
Dominic Cardy (NDP)    1158    27.27    +18.30
Sharon Murphy (Grn)   69    1.62            -4.43
Marjorie MacMurray (I)   62    1.46    

The NDP got about what they did in the federal election, meaning there is a cap at how much support they can get. Looks like while there was legitimate anger at the Tories, some of that went to the Liberals, who did not bleed their support to the NDP like predicted.

[Hatman 🍁]

While it's a "good" result, it's only 1% more than we got there federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

Federally the NDP took 29% of the vote in NB last year...if they managed to repeat that performance and get 29% or 30% in the 2014 provincial election it would probably means about 9 or 10 seats in the NB legislature...nothing to sneer at. In Sept. 2010 the NB NDP took 10% of the vote. In May 2011 the federal NDP took 29% in NB - if the provincial NDP can get anywhere near the level of support the federal party had - it would be a success beyond anyone's wildest dreams.

If only Cardy could run in every riding. In the federal election, it was as if Jack was running in every election.